2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
Picks for 2026 PGA Championship golfers and the PGA Championship favorites to win ahead of the year's second major at Aronimink Golf Club
The PGA Championship grants all past winners of the major lifetime exemption to future editions. Thus, the 2026 PGA Championship features over a dozen past champions, including Jason Dufner, Brooks Koepka and Martin Kaymer. These three would not have otherwise qualified for the second major of the year, which begins on Thursday at Aronimink Golf Club. Will any of these golfers make the most of their opportunity and add to their major collection at the PGA Championship 2026?
All three are golf longshots, with Koepka having the shortest PGA Championship odds at +4000 as he seeks his fourth win at this major. Scottie Scheffler, the reigning champion, is the +480 favorite, while two-time winner, Rory McIlroy, is at +850. Other top golfers include Cameron Young (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1500) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200). Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary golf betting model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2026 PGA Championship predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young
One pick from the model for the PGA Championship 2026: Young (+1200), the No. 3 ranked golfer in the world who is also third on the odds board, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five. Young's had a breakout season, winning the Players and then the Cadillac Championship earlier this month, but he hasn't had nearly the same success at majors. He's 0 for 19 in his major tournament career, with as many missed cuts (seven) as top-25 finishes. His results over his last three PGA Championship starts are 47th, 63rd and a missed cut.
Young is on the short list for being the best ball striker on tour, with top 25 rankings in all of the major categories. However, putting is another story as he ranks 50th in strokes gained: putting. That could be an issue at Aronimink, which is a course that Young has no experience at. The Philly-area course is known for its fast, contoured putting surfaces, and that could undo all of the great work Young normally does when reaching the green. Given his such short golf odds, there are better players to utilize your PGA bets on.
The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+480), who could become the first back-to-back PGA champion since Tiger Woods (2006-07). After winning 13 tournaments over 2024 and 2025, Scheffler hasn't quite kept pace this year. It began with a victory in his first start, but that remains his only win, while three other golfers have multiple victories in 2026. However, the World No. 1 still finds a way to seemingly always be in contention as he has six top 10s across his nine starts.
Always contending is also the case with recent majors for Scheffler, who has finished in the top seven in each of his last six major tournaments. But he has no course experience with Aronimink as he will compete on it for the first time, and Scheffler's underlying metrics haven't kept up with his otherworldly 2025 form. Last year he led the tour in strokes gained: approach the green but sits 40th this year, as that will be something to keep an eye on at a course known for its fast greens.
The model has also examined McIlroy's (+850) chances of becoming the seventh golfer to win three PGA Championships. Since winning his second green jacket in a row, McIlroy has played in just one event and finished 19th at last week's Truist Championship. Outside of the Masters, the Irishman has just one other top 10 finish on the season, but he clearly elevates his level of play at majors. He has a pair of top-3 finishes at the PGA Championship, in addition to his two victories, as his four top-3s here are tied for his most at any major.
McIlroy has played Aronimink once before at the 2018 BMW Championship where he placed fifth with a score of 18-under-par. He struggled to break par at last year's PGA Championship, doing so just once over four rounds as he finished in 47th place at 3-over. That came just one month after winning his first Masters, so it will be interesting to see how McIlroy does a month after winning his second Masters Tournament. See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.
How to make 2026 PGA Championship picks
The model is also targeting several longshots, including two going off at 20-1 or more who make stunning runs for the title at Aronimink. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 PGA Championship odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +480
Rory McIlroy +850
Cameron Young +1200
Jon Rahm +1500
Xander Schauffele +1600
Ludvig Ã
berg +1800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2700
Brooks Koepka +3300
Patrick Cantlay +3500
Collin Morikawa +4000
Min Woo Lee +5000
Nicolai Højgaard +5000
Justin Thomas +5000
Justin Rose +5500
Russell Henley +5500
Rickie Fowler +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Adam Scott +6000
Viktor Hovland +6000
Si Woo Kim +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Chris Gotterup +6000
J.J. Spaun +6500
Robert MacIntyre +6500
Patrick Reed +7000
Maverick McNealy +7000
Joaquin Niemann +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Jordan Spieth +8000
Shane Lowry +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Hideki Matsuyama +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Harris English +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Ben Griffin +10000
David Puig +10000
Thomas Detry +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Jacob Bridgeman +10000
Alex Noren +12500
Jason Day +12500
Alex Smalley +12500
Harry Hall +12500
Pierceson Coody +15000
Matt McCarty +15000
Sungjae Im +15000
Corey Conners +15000
Sahith Theegala +17500
Michael Thorbjornsen +17500
Ryan Gerard +17500
Wyndham Clark +17500
Rasmus Højgaard +17500
Brian Harman +17500
Ryan Fox +22500
Samuel Stevens +22500
Ryo Hisatsune +22500
Keith Mitchell +22500
Aaron Rai +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Marco Penge +22500
Daniel Berger +22500
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +22500
Taylor Pendrith +25000
Tom McKibbin +25000
Ricky Castillo +25000
Jordan Smith +25000
Michael Brennan +25000
Angel Ayora +25000
Max Homa +25000
Bud Cauley +25000
Michael Kim +25000
Jayden Schaper +35000
Haotong Li +35000
Daniel Hillier +35000
Dustin Johnson +35000
Aldrich Potgieter +35000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +35000
Andrew Novak +35000
Max Greyserman +35000
J.T. Poston +35000
Matt Wallace +35000
Cameron Smith +35000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Andrew Putnam +50000
Sami Valimaki +50000
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +50000
Bernd Wiesberger +50000
Denny McCarthy +50000
Stephan Jaeger +50000
Richard Hoey +50000
Lucas Glover +50000
Stewart Cink +50000
Billy Horschel +50000
Patrick Rodgers +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Ian Holt +50000
Austin Smotherman +50000
Mikael Lindberg +50000
Chris Kirk +75000
Johnny Keefer +75000
Casey Jarvis +75000
Steven Fisk +75000
John Parry +75000
Matti Schmid +75000
Tom Hoge +75000
Jimmy Walker +100000
Braden Shattuck +100000
Bryce Fisher +100000
Jhonattan Vegas +100000
Michael Block +100000
Y.E. Yang +100000
Luke Donald +100000
Ben Kern +100000
Elvis Smylie +100000
Timothy Wiseman +100000
Jared Jones +100000
Paul McClure +100000
Derek Berg +100000
Garrett Sapp +100000
Ryan Vermeer +100000
Dan Brown +100000
Adam Schenk +100000
Francisco Bidé +100000
Austin Hurt +100000
Padraig Harrington +100000
Adrien Saddier +100000
Emiliano Grillo +100000
Martin Kaymer +100000
Kota Kaneko +100000
Ben Polland +100000
Brian Campbell +100000
Shaun Micheel +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
Garrick Higgo +100000
Jordan Gumberg +100000
David Lipsky +100000
William Mouw +100000
Michael Kartrude +100000
Joe Highsmith +100000
Mark Geddes +100000
Davis Riley +100000
Tyler Collet +100000
Chris Gabriele +100000
Andy Sullivan +100000
Zach Haynes +100000
Travis Smyth +100000
Ryan Lenahan +100000
Kazuki Higa +100000
Chandler Blanchet +100000
Jesse Droemer +100000
Brandt Snedeker +100000
