2026 Valero Texas Open odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 16 majors
SportsLine's model simulated the Valero Texas Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA picks this week after Collin Morikawa withdrew on Tuesday
A two-event stop in Texas concludes this week with the 2026 Valero Texas Open beginning on Thursday at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both out this week ahead of major play, but there's still a strong Valero Texas Open field headlined by top-10 OWGR players such as Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley. The latest 2026 Valero Texas Open odds via FanDuel list Fleetwood as the favorite at +1300, followed by Ludvig Aberg and Henley at +1600. Si Woo Kim is +2000, with Texas native Jordan Spieth among the golfers at +2200. Collin Morikawa withdrew on Tuesday morning.
Before locking in any 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, entering any Texas Open one and done contests, or making any PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
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Now that the 2026 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or Texas Open DFS lineups.
2026 Valero Texas Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Texas Open 2026: It projects that Henley barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. Henley has been steady this year, but has yet to finish inside the top 5 in any event, so the model isn't ready to project him nearly the top of the leaderboard. He finished fourth in this event in 2024, but didn't play it in 2025 and he finished T52 and missed the cut in his other two Texas Open appearances. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects Sepp Straka as a top-10 contender despite him not being in the top group of favorites at +2700. The 32-year-old Austrian has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events, including a strong T8 finish at The Players Championship last time out. He struggled during his first two appearances at this tournament, but turned a corner last year, finishing T22 after a strong weekend, so the model likes his value this week. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Valero Texas Open picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one at 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Texas Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Texas Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
Get full 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Tommy Fleetwood +1300
Ludvig Åberg +1600
Russell Henley +1600
Si Woo Kim +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Robert MacIntyre +2200
Maverick McNealy +2200
Michael Thorbjornsen +2500
Sepp Straka +2700
Rickie Fowler +2700
Alex Noren +3000
Ryo Hisatsune +3300
Keith Mitchell +3500
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +4000
Denny McCarthy +4000
Thorbjørn Olesen +4000
J.J. Spaun +4500
Marco Penge +4500
Johnny Keefer +4500
Richard Hoey +5000
Will Zalatoris +5500
Nick Taylor +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
Tony Finau +6000
Mac Meissner +6500
Alex Smalley +7000
Jordan Smith +7000
Ricky Castillo +7000
Austin Smotherman +7000
Davis Thompson +7000
Patrick Rodgers +7000
Max McGreevy +7000
Brian Harman +7000
J.T. Poston +7000
Andrew Novak +8000
Adrien Dumont de Chassart +8000
