The American Express 2026 odds, picks: Surprising predictions by golf model that's called 16 majors

After an abbreviated stop in Hawaii, the 2026 PGA Tour schedule begins the West Coast Swing with The American Express 2026 beginning on Thursday at the Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, Calif. After skipping the one-week Hawaii Swing, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is set to make his debut as part of The American Express 2026 field. The four-time major winner hasn't played particularly well in this event, however, recording just one top-10 finish in five tries. 

Still, the 2026 American Express odds list Scheffler as the clear-cut +300 favorite (risk $100 to win $300). Ben Griffin, ranked No. 8 in the world, is next on the PGA odds board at +2000, with Robert MacIntyre and Russell Henley at +2200 and Ludvig Aberg at +2500. Before locking in any 2026 American Express picks, or making any PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as this year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites. 

New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins:

Now that the 2026 American Express field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard. 

2026 American Express predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at The American Express 2026: Sam Burns, who is +2700, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. He's a golfer to avoid at La Quinta this week. Burns had some highlights in 2025, including finishing T7 at the Tour Championship after a strong playoff run. There were also some low points as well like going nine straight tournaments without a top-20 finish, including three straight missed cuts in that run. He has a pair of top-10 finishes at The American Express, but no top-5s, and he finished T29 last year, so the model doesn't like him as a top contender this week. See who else to fade here. 

Another surprise: The model calls Matt Fitzpatrick a top-four contender this week despite being a +3500 longshot. He's a golfer to target if you're looking for a big return. This will be his debut at The American Express, but he finished 2025 strong with four top-10 finishes in his last six events. He finished the season 34th in Strokes Gained: Total and 30th in Strokes Gained: Putting, making him a golfer to target with slightly longer odds this week. See who else to pick here. 

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins:

How to make 2026 American Express picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of +2700 or higher as top-10 contenders. You can only see the model's picks here. 

Who will win the 2026 American Express, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 American Express odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.

2026 American Express odds, favorites 

Get full 2026 American Express picks, best bets and predictions here. 
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +300
Ben Griffin +2000
Robert MacIntyre +2200
Russell Henley +2200
Ludvig Åberg +2500
Sam Burns +2700
Patrick Cantlay +2700
Si Woo Kim +2700
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Taylor Pendrith +4000
Michael Thorbjornsen +4000
Sepp Straka +4000
Harry Hall +4000
Alex Noren +4500
Kurt Kitayama +4500
Daniel Berger +4500
Harris English +5000
Davis Thompson +5500
J.T. Poston +5500
Ryan Gerard +5500
Rickie Fowler +5500
Richard Hoey +5500
Rasmus Højgaard +6000
Pierceson Coody +6000
Nick Taylor +6000
Justin Rose +6000
Min Woo Lee +6000
Adam Scott +6000
Kevin Yu +7500
Jason Day +7500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7500
Patrick Rodgers +7500
Akshay Bhatia +7500
Max Greyserman +7500
Wyndham Clark +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Matt McCarty +8000
Michael Kim +8000
Will Zalatoris +8000
Brian Harman +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Bud Cauley +10000
Andrew Novak +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Samuel Stevens +10000
Michael Brennan +10000
Keith Mitchell +10000
Lee Hodges +10000
Jacob Bridgeman +10000
Mac Meissner +10000
Chris Kirk +10000
Nick Dunlap +10000
Max McGreevy +10000
Max Homa +10000
Sami Valimaki +10000
Vince Whaley +10000