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2026 Charles Schwab Challenge preview and predictions: Can Ludvig Åberg or Rickie Fowler notch a victory?

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The Texas two step comes to an end this week as a full field of cowboys arrives at one of the most historic venues on the PGA Tour playing calendar. Colonial Country Club will once again serve as host for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, but for only a second time will players be faced with the restored nature of the golf course.

Golf architect Gil Hanse and company came to the property following conclusion of play in 2023 with the hopes of restoring the golf course to its original intentions designed by Perry Maxwell. As such, Hanse improved the infrastructure, lowered the majority of the greens to make them more receptive and made dramatic changes to a couple of the par 3s.

Last season, it was Ben Griffin who conquered Colonial for his second career victory but first of the individual variety. He returns to defend his title against a strong field that includes Ludvig Åberg, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, J.J. Spaun, Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau who appeared to find his game last week.

Perhaps just as glaring as those playing are two players who are not in Dallas residents Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth. Due to the condensed nature of the schedule, both players who have regularly teed it up at Colonial have instead decided to rest given the upcoming stretch of tournaments.

Brooks Koepka also decided to withdraw his name from the field after intending to play. His omission means he will not play himself into next week's Memorial -- the penultimate signature event -- through the Aon Swing 5 as the likes of Zach Bauchou, Keith Mitchell and Finau fight for that right instead.

2026 Charles Schwab Challenge schedule

Dates: May 28-31
Location: Colonial Country Club -- Fort Worth, Texas
Par: 70 | Yardage: 7,289 | Architect: Perry Maxwell
Purse: $9,900,000

2026 Charles Schwab Challenge odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Ludvig Åberg (10-1): From a statistical standpoint, Åberg is a level above the rest of this field. He has been averaging nearly three strokes gained per round over the last three months -- more than one stroke better than the No. 2 player in this field over the same timespan. Unfortunately for the Swedish superstar, he has not been in a league of his own in the all-important category of wins. Åberg is without a title since the Genesis Invitational last year as he continues to trip over himself on Sundays. He had a great opportunity in the final round at the PGA Championship to right the ship, and if his quality continues, he should have another one this weekend.
  • Russell Henley (20-1): After a close call at the Masters, Henley's form has dipped ever so slightly. He followed up the Masters with a top-25 finish at the RBC Heritage and has since gone onto finish T49 at Trump National Doral before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. The putter was the main culprit at Aronimink -- which it was for many -- meaning the bones of his game are still strong. He has not made a habit of adding Colonial to his calendar, but last time he did he finished T16 in 2023.
  • Robert MacIntyre (21-1)
  • Rickie Fowler (24-1): His string of top-10 finishes ended at the PGA Championship where Fowler was never able to figure out the green complexes at Aronimink. Before the second major championship of the season, he had three straight top 10s in signature events including a close call at the Truist Championship. Fowler ranks fourth in this field in terms of total strokes gained as a rejuvenated ball-striking effort has largely been met by a rediscovered putting stroke.
  • Justin Thomas (25-1): The two-time major champion is looking stronger by the week. He finished in a flurry at Aronimink with a final-round 65 that gave him the clubhouse lead for much of the afternoon before he was forced to settle for a T4 finish. This came after quality results at both Quail Hollow and Trump National Doral where his putter was more than friendly. On a golf course where players can lay back off the tee and strategy is required, Thomas can think his way around this place, although he has not teed it up at Colonial since 2022.
  • Ben Griffin (25-1): A winner three times in 2025, Griffin fell into a comeback to earth season early, but to his credit he is climbing out of that hole. Griffin has three top-15 finishes in his last four tournaments thanks largely to his putting. The iron play has been poor for his standards as he goes through some swing changes.
  • Akshay Bhatia (29-1)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (31-1)
  • Keegan Bradley (32-1)
  • J.J. Spaun (32-1)
  • Keith Mitchell (34-1)

2026 Charles Schwab Challenge picks


Winner (32-1): Spaun already won this season, and oh yeah, he won in the state of Texas. The reigning U.S. Open champion caught fire this time last season, and it appears he is doing so yet again. Before an early exit at the PGA Championship where he was terrific from tee to green only to be upended by his putting, Spaun had three straight top 25s, including a T5 at the Truist Championship. He finished T6 in this tournament a season ago.

Contender (67-1): Players are starting to force the envelope off the tee around Colonial, which is something Finau has been effective at throughout his career. He comes off a T6 at last week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson where everything but his putter cooperated. Finau should thrive in more difficult scoring conditions as shown by his history at Colonial, which includes five top-25 finishes in his last six appearances.

Sleeper (75-1): Ever since the PGA Tour returned to Texas, Novak returned to the player that he was in 2025. He has five top-30 finishes in his last seven tournaments as his ball striking has buoyed his game, and his short game is starting to fill in any of the gaps. Novak is a player who has been vocal about liking those golf courses where pars are required and scoring is tough to come by. If his T11 in this tournament last season is any indication of his affinity of Colonial, Novak should feel right at home.

Who will win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.

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