As the entire golf world starts to turn its attention toward Augusta National Golf Club and the 85th edition of the Masters, it's time to look at whether the future champion can be determined by past results. Does recent form inform us about who Dustin Johnson will put the green jacket on come April (or whether he will have to figure out how to put it on himself)?
The Masters has seen some interesting winners this century. The minimal field seems like it would lead to more big-name champions. There are never more than 100 participants, and this should mean Cinderella stories are relegated to March Madness in the weeks before but rarely show up at Augusta National. However, that has not always been the case as guys like Danny Willett and Charl Schwartzel -- good players but not great ones -- have green jackets.
That reality begs the question of whether we should have seen these wins by those off-the-radar guys coming all along.
I went back and looked at the last 15 Masters winners and how they were striking it in the three months leading into the major. For all pre-2020 champs, I ran a query for tee-to-green data from January 1 to April 1 in the year they won. For 2020, I ran D.J.'s numbers from August 1 to November 1.
Remember, if you're at 2.0 strokes gained tee to green, you're playing at an elite level, top-10 or top-five player in the world type stuff. Here's how the past 15 champs looked in the three months leading into the Masters.
- 2020 -- Dustin Johnson: 2.88
- 2019 -- Tiger Woods: 1.82
- 2018 -- Patrick Reed: 1.26
- 2017 -- Sergio Garcia: 2.14
- 2016 -- Danny Willett: 2.01
- 2015 -- Jordan Spieth: 1.67
- 2014 -- Bubba Watson: 2.06
- 2013 -- Adam Scott: 2.23
- 2012 -- Bubba Watson: 2.60
- 2011 -- Charl Schwartzel: 0.69
- 2010 -- Phil Mickelson 1.41
- 2009 -- Angel Cabrera: 0.46
- 2008 -- Trevor Immelman: 0.77
- 2007 -- Zach Johnson: 0.37
- 2006 -- Phil Mickelson: 2.13
These results are fascinating. Almost recent Masters champion was playing at an elite level from tee to green coming into the week of the Masters. D.J. was obviously the best of the bunch, but nearly everyone was ball-striking the hell out of it for the three months leading into the Masters. Only four players were under 1.0 strokes gained from tee to green, and only one of those happened in the last decade as fields started to get stronger and deeper.
The most interesting one here is Willett. He was crushing in the months leading into that win over Jordan Spieth and Lee Westwood. He won the Desert Dubai Classic and finished T3 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He was a no-name player to an American audience at the time, but the numbers suggest that maybe he should have been given more respect coming in.
If numbers from the last decade hold up -- eight of the last 10 were gaining 1.67 strokes per round in the three months leading into the Masters -- then what could this mean for the 2021 Masters? Our friends at Data Golf have the answer. Though March is not over yet, here are the players striking it at that 1.67 clip so far in 2021.
- Paul Casey
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Dustin Johnson
- Viktor Hovland
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Joaquin Niemann
Only Casey, Rahm and Garcia are at 2.0 or better, which is where six of the last 10 winners have been leading into the first major of the year. As an aside: I've talked myself into thinking that Rahm was going to win the last six majors and will undoubtedly do so again this year at Augusta.
Last year's champ, Johnson, spoke to this idea of trending into the Masters earlier this week.
"I want to be ready when I go to a golf tournament, and same goes for Augusta," said Johnson. "I want my game to be in order before I get there, not while I'm there. I think that's probably the biggest difference is just making sure I'm prepared before I arrive instead of trying to figure something out while I'm there."
The numbers, for the most part, back up what D.J. is saying, at least when it comes to the last 10 champions. I do wonder how much confidence plays in here. If you're swinging it well, you're going to be extraordinarily confident, and that seems like half the game at the major championships. We'll have to wait three weeks to see if this trend holds up, but as Augusta approaches, it's something to keep in mind when trying to figure out who will win the first major of the year.
