2026 Players Championship predictions, picks, favorites: One of these nine golfers will win at TPC Sawgrass
With some questions swirling around the top players in the game, is this year's Players Championship more wide open than ever before?
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Despite all the conjecture over the last month, The Players Championship is not a designated "major," even if its winners have certainly looked the part of major champions. Since moving the tournament from May to March, a who's who of champions have stepped into the winner's circle and raised the golden trophy awarded to the champion of the PGA Tour's flagship event.
The last six winners have each ranked inside the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings. They were also ranked inside the top eight in Data Golf's rankings; half were positioned inside the top three at the time of their victories.
Scottie Scheffler became the first player to win in back-to-back years in 2023-24. Rory McIlroy added a Players Championship trophy to his mantle for the first time in 2019, his second coming six years later in 2025. In between, two-time major champion Justin Thomas conquered the devilish Pete Dye design with Cameron Smith adding a win during a career year in which he won three times, including at The Open.
So, that should narrow down the list of potential winners, right? Well, yes and no. An elite skill set is required around TPC Sawgrass as shots need to be shaped both ways, and adversity will need to be overcome when it eventually strikes. That screams top 10 player in the world as a winner, but eyebrows start to raise when looking at some of those same players' form.
Some big names have it, others are looking for it, and even a player like McIlroy is just hoping to make it through the week as he defends his title without the luxury of a practice round due to a lingering back injury. All of this combined could give way to a surprise winner … or an obvious one staring all of us right in the face.
Nine players who can win 2026 Players Championship
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
| 1 | |
| It remains premature to sound the alarm on Scheffler as he ranks first in total strokes gained, third in strokes gained off the tee and third in strokes gained around the green in 2026. The sky is not falling. It's just that he has not been as sharp with his iron play since winning the American Express, and the results have shown that with a measly T24 at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational representing his worst result since last year's T25 at the WM Phoenix Open. If he plays his game, he wins by running away. Odds: 9/2 | |
| 2 | |
| Morikawa is the obvious pick, and that's why he is the popular pick. Ask anyone around town who they are selecting to win this year's Players Championship, and there is a good chance Morikawa's name is on the tip of their tongue. It is with good reason, of course, as he won at Pebble Beach and backed it up with top-10 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill. He's accurate, precise and as confident as he was when he was winning his two major championships. Odds: 18-1 | |
| 3 | |
| A fearless shotmaker can soar to new heights or crash and burn at TPC Sawgrass, and no one would know that better than Kim. The youngest winner in the championship's history, the South Korean comes into this year's edition as the top player in terms of strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained approach. The fate of his week falls on the putter, where he ranks outside the top 100 in this field. Odds: 22-1 | |
| 4 | |
| The Swedish superstar will always drive the ball well, but what he did with his irons at Bay Hill was next level. Stuck in between clubs more often than not, Åberg was still able to shape shots, hit his windows and rank third in terms of strokes gained approach by week's end. The finish at Arnie's Place marks his second straight quality outing, and the top 10 finish in his 2024 Players debut provides confidence he can navigate his way around this place. Odds: 22-1 | |
| 5 | |
| The Russ bus is starting to rev with his top 10 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Supremely accurate off the tee, tidy with his wedges and underrated on and around the greens, Henley's game is a perfect match for a firm and crusty TPC Sawgrass. It's surprising that he has not been more successful overall, but he does have three top 30s in his last four appearances, so he may not be far off. Odds: 27-1 | |
| 6 | |
| Battled to make his way into the weekend at Bay Hill after impressing on the West Coast with back-to-back top 10s. Fleetwood is one of the more consistent performers around TPC Sawgrass, as he has just one missed cut in his career to go along with four top 25 finishes. In what will be an all-around test, an all-around player like Fleetwood has to be considered. Odds: 27-1 | |
| 7 | |
| There have been signs of life the last handful of events. Schauffele showed his game was trending in the right direction at Pebble Beach, and he continued this trajectory with a run at Riviera. His play at Bay Hill produced a T24 finish as he improved in all four strokes-gained categories. It's clear he is not in complete love with his game at this moment, but that doesn't mean it's not among the elites. He has a pair of runner-up finishes in his Players career. Odds: 30-1 | |
| 8 | |
| The unofficial winner in 2020, when the tournament was cancelled after Round 1, Matsuyama has done everything but officially win. The man from Japan has seven top 25 finishes in his 10 career appearances with the three most recent doubling as top 10 efforts. The driver that hindered his chances in Scottsdale has since improved and should round out what has otherwise been an exceptional game to kick off 2026. Odds: 33-1 | |
| 9 | |
| In five starts this season, Fowler has four top 20 finishes, including a T9 last week at Bay Hill. He is swinging the driver as freely as ever, ranking top 50 in distance and accuracy, and the putter is cooperating as it did in his prime. The 2015 champion has made three straight cuts at TPC Sawgrass and is in need of more solid play with the Masters looming, where he currently does not hold an invitation into the field. He ranks 12th in total strokes gained in 2026 among those in the field. Odds: 50-1 | |
Who will win the 2026 Players Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.
