The week of festivities at the 2026 U.S. Open is already underway at Shinnecock Hills with practice ongoing as tournament rounds fast approach in Southampton, New York. The same question around Long Island and worldwide -- outside of whether the New York Knicks can repeat as NBA champions -- is on everyone's lips: Who are you picking to hoist the trophy on Sunday evening?
With an excellent 156-man field featuring the best the PGA Tour, LIV Golf and the USGA have to offer competing, the third major championship of the 2026 season should once again be a tremendous ride from Thursday's first round onward. Shinnecock Hills serving as a particularly difficult test should only heighten tensions, particularly given the high winds expected throughout all four rounds.
While the U.S. Open field is stacked, the overall favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is hardly playing his best golf. While he remains a top 10 machine, Scheffler only has one win on the season -- none during the PGA Tour's most substantial tournaments. Rory McIlroy enters having won a second straight green jacket, and while his game is on point, his driving accuracy has been rough. He's also not playing as many tournaments as usual, so rust is certainly possible.
Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will each miss their third major of the season, facing starkly different personal circumstances; it now appears neither will play the four biggest events of the year for the first time in decades.
There are, nevertheless, plenty of significant names in the field with the likes of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood aiming to find further success on a tough USGA test.
So, what is going to happen in Long Island this week? Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win -- and what will go down -- in the third major championship of the season.
2026 U.S. Open expert picks, predictions
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Russell Henley (40-1): Quietly one of the best players in the world and quietly becoming a fixture in major championships, Henley has an opportunity to capitalize on his run of form at Shinnecock. The recent winner at the Charles Schwab Challenge has a sneakily good U.S. Open record and was in the thick of it on the second nine on Sunday at Augusta National. Henley is deadly accurate off the tee, precise going into the greens and has the hands and mettle to deal with the vagaries of this U.S. Open.
Sleeper – Ryan Gerard (125-1): We've got a player here who has been in the final group on Sunday in his last two tournaments; in the latter, Gerard fell just short in a playoff to J.T. Poston at the Memorial. Gaming a new confidence on the greens thanks to a small tweak in setup, Gerard is finding out that the entirety of his game is more than good enough to compete with the best in the world. He has the mental fortitude and the gumption required in U.S. Opens.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: The man with three legs of the grand slam in his bag has finished inside the top 25 in his last 32 tournaments. Just want to make sure you see that number: 32! The mark may be the top 10 for this conversation, and despite some visible frustrations at Muirfield Village, Scheffler is still the most well-rounded and best player in the world. He is driving beautifully and possesses an underrated short game. All eyes are on the career grand slam, and the world No. 1 will put on a show.
Star who definitely won't win -- Bryson DeChambeau: A little nervous with the lack of noise, but DeChambeau's shortcomings in major championships this season stemmed from loose iron play and sloppy short-game performances. Those two areas are critical to staying afloat at Shinnecock Hills. The constant wind adds another variable that the artist formerly known as the Mad Scientist will be unable to equate.
Low amateur -- Ethan Fang: The next generation is here. So many options with Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout and the top junior in the world, Miles Russell, but we are going with Stout's teammate, Fang. The winner of the Amateur Championship last summer, Fang a.k.a "The Vampire," has an innate ability to get his ball in the hole no matter the circumstances. That is handy at a U.S. Open.
Golfers finishing under par -- Two: The winner comes in at 2 under for a one-stroke victory. The USGA learned from the 2004 and 2018 championships held at Shinnecock Hills; it will set up the golf course to remain playable into the weekend even with high winds. The only concern thus far is the wind direction in practice rounds, which has yet to mirror the prevailing.
Biggest surprise -- More controversy! Shinnecock Hills has become synonymous with it in the last two U.S. Opens, and let us not forget the Sam Burns ruling -- or lack thereof -- in the final round at Oakmont Country Club last season. With wind, the potential for watering greens during rounds and U.S. Open pressure, a big-time golf debate about something will break out.
Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner's Sunday score: 70 (E)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner -- Xander Schauffele (18-1): Did you know Schauffele's worst finish in nine U.S. Open starts is T14? That's a remarkable run of consistency at an event that is almost impossible to fake it around when you don't have your best. Schauffele has always been a major performer (19 top 10s in 36 overall major starts), and while he hasn't quite returned to the form that won him two majors in 2024, he does have back-to-back top 10s to start 2026. Shinnecock Hills requires the right mindset and a well-rounded game to get the job done. Schauffele has both.
Sleeper -- Harris English (80-1): English has a tendency to pop his head up at the top of the leaderboard at majors and has a strong history at the U.S. Open. Shinnecock should fit his game well, as it demands precise ball-striking and excellent putting. Historically, he's had the ball-striking, although it's dipped a bit this year, but I don't think that skill has suddenly left him, and he's in the midst of an incredible putting season that has him sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained.
Top 10 lock -- Jon Rahm: I'm back in on Rahm after Aronimink. That was a really tough course setup, and he played in total control of his ball from tee-to-green, which we hadn't seen him do at a proper major test in quite some time. His game is in a great place, and most importantly, he believes he is that guy again after dealing with some real doubts about his place among the world's best for the first time in his career.
Star who definitely won't win -- Scottie Scheffler: It's no fun playing it safe and pointing out that DeChambeau in the wind has no shot. That's kicking a man while he's down. I'll be the one to say the tournament favorite will not win. Last time I tried this bit, I had Scheffler and McIlroy being outside the top 10 at the Masters, and they finished 1-2. Alas, I'm not deterred and don't think Scheffler's game is where it needs to be to win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock. The ball-striking concerns are real, and in the wind they'll face this week on greens this nasty, he will not be able to execute his usual risk-averse style well enough to complete the career grand slam.
Low amateur -- Preston Stout: Koivun and Russell are the headliners getting all the buzz, but this amateur field is incredibly deep. Stout, an Oklahoma State star, who recently bested Koivun to win the individual title at the NCAA championship. Stout can benefit from the attention on Koivun and Russell by getting to just play golf this week without the spotlight, and he can make quite the name for himself with low amateur honors, given the depth of talent headed to Shinnecock this week.
Golfers finishing under par -- One: Much like last year at Oakmont, the winner will come in at 1 under or maybe 2 under. The wind is going to be stiff on Thursday and Friday, but even as it lightens a touch on the weekend, the USGA has levers it can pull with the greens to keep scoring exactly where they want it. Someone will post in red figures, but the grand total of golfers to break par in a U.S. Open at Shinnecock will only move to four on Sunday evening.
Biggest surprise -- Three players in the top 10 on the odds sheet miss the cut: That list: Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim and DeChambeau. It's tough to say which three will is it, but Shinnecock is going to take its toll and eliminate a few of the pre-tournament favorites before Saturday.
Lowest round: 68 (-2)
Winning score: 279 (-1)
Winner's Sunday score: 70 (E)
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.
