Who will win 2026 U.S. Open? Scottie Scheffler aims for career grand slam, Rory McIlroy eyes redemption

The 126th playing of the U.S. Open takes to one of the most historic golf clubs in all the United States as players arrive at Shinnecock Hills this week with eyes on adding their name to the golf course's lore. With past champions such as Brooks Koepka and Raymond Floyd, Shinnecock Hills has always given players all they can handle with this week's examination all but certain to provide the same.

While the characters in this story have changed, the script has not, as the U.S. Open represents the third and penultimate opportunity for competitors to nab a major championship in 2026. Thus far, it has been a successful defense at the Masters courtesy of Rory McIlroy, and a working-class winner in Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship, a result few expected at the onset of the week and heading into a congested Sunday at Aronimink Golf Club.

Despite identifying winners like Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm in recent years, the U.S. Open has been more prone than the other majors to first-time winners. This leaves the door open to players such as Cameron Young, Ludvig Åberg and Tommy Fleetwood, who fired a final-round 63 to finish runner-up the last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock Hills.

Although this golf tournament can give way to an unlikely hero, this championship will center around those who have centered near the top of the world of golf over the last half-decade with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler drawing the spotlight as he goes for the career grand slam for the first time.

The Scheffler Slam

If Scheffler did not have this weekend circled on his calendar at the onset of the year, fear not, just about everyone else in golf did. The world No. 1 goes for the career grand slam for the first time with the final round falling not only on Father's Day as it usually does but also his 30th birthday. Talk about the potential celebrations.

Scheffler remains the beacon in golf that all other players are striving to reach, and the argument could be made that they have in 2026. He has just one victory to his name, finished outside the top 10 in five tournaments this season -- for reference, that number was five in 2023 and three each in 2024 and 2025 -- and has been visibly frustrated on the golf course more than usual.

And yet ... he is still the clear-cut No. 1 guy who this tournament goes through. He has finished inside the top 25 in 32 straight tournaments, finished runner-up at the Masters and was the first-round leader at the PGA Championship. He leads the PGA Tour in just about every scoring category and has done so while experiencing his worst strokes gained approach season since 2021.

Perspective and expectations are funny in that way. Scheffler's consistent quality and ridiculous winning pace over the last few years have now become his standard, and if he does not reach it, people wonder what is going on. Let me try to provide an answer.

At his core, the best player in the game has an opportunity to become the seventh player in the history of the game to capture all four major championships. You don't need to dive into the strokes-gained data to know what's on the line this week.

Number of attempts to complete career grand slam

15 years later …

McIlroy's goals for the remainder of his career have remained fluid, but a win on a U.S. Open setup such as Shinnecock Hills is certainly among them. To win on a wet Congressional 15 years ago is still an accomplishment, but to do so on a firm, fiery, crusty Shinnecock Hills with the history the club holds is something the Northern Irishman wants. It is along the same lines as The Open at St. Andrews, and how picking off championships at the golf courses matter just as much as the trophy itself.

McIlroy's evolution 15 years on will be put on display this week. The finesse game has been a welcome addition to his arsenal the last couple of seasons as he can play any game Shinnecock requires -- small ball, big ball and everything in between. And it would be fitting if the completion of this change came at Shinnecock Hills, the venue where McIlroy last missed the cut in the U.S. Open.

Results since missing the cut at 2018 U.S. Open

100 in a row

Longevity is not appreciated in golf the way it should be. Touching the highest ceiling, winning the most in a short span, and gobbling up major championships tend to take the cake, but this week, it is worth celebrating the longevity of Adam Scott, who is set to make his 100th straight start in a major championship.

Let's repeat that: Adam Scott is playing in his 100th straight major championship.

Only Jack Nicklaus, with 146 in a row, had a longer streak than Scott, who actually had a real chance to win this championship just last year. Scott is the only other player to reach the century mark in terms of consecutive outings.

The last major championship Scott did not participate in was the 2001 U.S. Open. Some of you reading this weren't even born yet! That's the same year Apple released the iPod -- not even the iPhone, the iPod! "Harry Potter" and "The Lord of the Rings" were released in movie theaters that year.

It's an absurd feat, hard to wrap one's head around. Think about everything that can go wrong in 25 years -- injuries, dips in form, etc. -- and everything that has to go right in order to reach this mark. Well done, Adam Scott.

The hills have eyes

One of the five clubs -- the original five charter members who founded the United States Golf Association in 1894 -- Shinnecock Hills has hosted just five U.S. Opens in its history, with four of them in the last 40 years. The sixth edition will take place this year, while the seventh will have to wait until 2036, when it hosts both the men's and women's championships.

Although Shinnecock Hills may not have served as the championship venue as much as Oakmont Country Club (10), the history remains unmatched. Founded in 1891, it is believed to be the oldest incorporated golf club in the United States. Its iconic clubhouse perched at the top of the property has looked much the same since 1892.

Renowned architects like C.B. Macdonald and Seth Raynor were responsible for the earliest form of the golf course before Route 27 bisected it, and William Flynn came in to create a new routing while keeping some of Macdonald and Raynor's original holes and ideas.

Recently, Shinnecock Hills has earned a reputation as one of the sternest U.S. Open tests. The USGA setup has been instrumental in this, as players in both 2004 and 2018 complained about the baked-out nature of the golf course. 

In 2004, the USGA watered the greens while the final round was being contested, as players were unable to keep their balls on the green at the par-3 7th hole. A total of 28 players failed to break 80 that day, and no one broke par.

In 2018, the first-round scoring average was 76.5. Over the weekend, Zach Johnson insisted that they had lost the golf course, while Phil Mickelson lost his mind when he hit his moving ball as it was running away from the hole, earned a two-stroke and carded a 10.

U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills since 1900

Amateur hour

Ben James is no longer an amateur, having earned his PGA Tour card by finishing atop the PGA Tour University Rankings, but if he still held that designation, the top three non-professionals in the game would be competing in this major. In fact, four of the top 10 would be when including the No. 1 junior, who doubles as the No. 10 amateur. (More on him shortly.)

While James is no longer in the amateur ranks and qualified for his third straight U.S. Open through final qualifying, Jackson Koivun and Preston Stout are, for the time being. The two faced off in the semifinals of the NCAA Championship, where the match was never finalized (although Koivun was leading with one hole to play) since the broader match was already over.

While Stout may have lost that battle, he did claim the individual crown to put a bow on a season that saw him win his third straight Big 12 Championship title. Speaking of a third straight conference title, that is exactly what Koivun accomplished in the SEC while running through the world of college golf.

This game within the game amongst all the amateurs will be fun to watch -- more so than usual -- given the quality of those who have that simple (a) next to their name on the leaderboard and given what it could lead to once they decide to turn professional.

Notable players to win low amateur honors at U.S. Open

The longest youngest day in golf

It may not seem possible given his quality these days, but let's not forget Cameron Young was one of those players who had to go through final qualifying to play in the 2025 U.S. Open. The Players Championship winner finished inside the top five at Oakmont, kick-started his season and is now back to being a top player in the game.

Stories like these emerge every year from the longest day in golf, and while this year's could center around long-time pros such as Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, JB Holmes and Zac Blair punching their tickets to Shinnecock Hills, youth was the through line, especially out of Florida, where a pair of 17-year-olds emerged with a spot in the U.S. Open field.

At the Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, qualifying site, three amateurs captured four of the spots, including the top two juniors: Miles Russell and Giuseppe Puebla. Puebla medaled with rounds of 69-68, while Russell needed a playoff after rounds of 71-67. 

As Dewey Wilkerson once said, "The future is now, old man."

Xander Schauffele's streak

While his two major championship triumphs headline his résumé, Xander Schauffele's consistency in these championships should be celebrated as well. He has finished inside the top 10 in more than 50% of his major championship starts, including both so far this season, alongside only McIlroy and Justin Rose.

In a weird twist of fate, however, he has claimed the PGA Championship and The Open, while his more consistent majors have yet to be captured. That, of course, includes the U.S. Open, where Schauffele has yet to finish outside the top 15 in nine career appearances. 

His run in this championship started with a roar via five straight top-10 results and has cooled slightly in recent years with no true runs of contention despite the final result still being positive. He'll look to buck that small spurt and hope for a 10th straight top 15 that doubles as his first U.S. Open crown.

Career U.S. Open results

Feast or famine

Trying to figure out Bryson DeChambeau has always been a tall task, but in this day and age, it seems to be only getting taller. The two-time U.S. Open champion is only a couple of years removed from his most recent title, but the two years have felt like a lifetime for both DeChambeau and his fans.

While he continues to play on LIV Golf and weighs the future of his career amid the league's uncertain future, DeChambeau's major championship form has dipped. He has missed three of his last four cuts in majors, and even opened his 2025 Open with a 78 before rounds of 65-68-64 put his name inside the cutline and inside the top 10.

In fact, since his win at Pinehurst No. 2, DeChambeau has missed more cuts (four) than he has made (three). Yet when he has secured a weekend tee time, he has often made sure it is late in the day and among the leaders. His first four rounds of major championship golf this season have been sloppy, erratic and simply not good enough to compete with the best.

But he's still Bryson DeChambeau, and that still means … anything is on the table.

Major record since 2024 U.S. Open

The year of the parity?

How is this for you?

• There have been seven signature events on the PGA Tour this season. All seven have been won by different players.
• There have been nine events on LIV Golf this season. All nine have been won by different players.
• There have been two major championships (and The Players … no we are not saying it is a major) and all three have been won by different players.

Are we in the year of parity? Because it feels like we are in the year of parity.

This comes after 2025, when Scheffler claimed two major championships, and 2024, when Schauffele accomplished the same. While major championships, as of late, have been dominated by those who dominate the sport, this year feels a little bit different, especially at a championship where six of the last seven and 13 of the last 17 champions have been first-time major winners.