Spring training is well underway, so what better time than to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now it’s the Atlanta Braves’ turn.
Last season, the Braves lost 95 games, which is their worst such mark since 1990. From that 95-loss squad, the Braves have parted ways with a handful of core performers. The rebuilding process is going swimmingly, especially when it comes to young pitching, but in 2016 things aren't going to be pretty, at least at the major-league level …
The lineup
As always, this is merely a best guess at what's a fluid situation for every team ...
1. Ender Inciarte, CF
2. Erick Aybar, SS
3. Nick Markakis, RF
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B
5. Adonis Garcia, 3B
6. A.J. Pierzynski, C
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Michael Bourn, LF
Gone are Andrelton Simmons and Cameron Maybin from a year ago. While Simmons added a great deal of overall value, his bat won't be missed terribly much. Needless to say, though, the drop-off from Simmons to Aybar in the field is substantial. Replacing Maybin in center is Inciarte, and that profiles as a modest upgrade.
Last season, the Braves ranked last in the NL with a measly 573 runs scored, and for the most part a lack of power was to blame, as Atlanta also ranked last in home runs and slugging percentage. To be sure, a healthy Freddie Freeman should help matters (he played in just 113 games in 2015, mostly because of oblique and wrist injuries), but this figures to remain for the most part a deeply power-starved lineup. In general terms, the Braves could flirt with replacement-level production from second base, third base, and left field. That's a lot of dead weight in the lineup, and that's why, even with a healthy Freeman and a full dose of Inciarte (and assuming Markakis runs a strong OBP once again), this team will struggle to get to 600 runs on the season.
The rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Matt Wisler
3. Manny Banuelos
4. Bud Norris
5. Williams Perez
The Braves parted with Alex Wood at the 2015 non-waiver deadline, and of course they dealt away Shelby Miller in a brilliant deal with the Diamondbacks this past offseason (a deal that netted them Dansby Swanson and Inciarte, among others). So they're no more.
As for the current arrangement, Teheran's platoon issues will probably prevent him from ever being a genuine ace, but he should enjoy a bit of a bounceback when it comes to preventing home runs and stranding runners. He's at best a mid-rotation type, though. Elsewhere, you're looking at a string of guys who probably can best an ERA in the mid-4.00s in 2016. Wisler, Banuelos, and Perez are all young enough to have some future value to the organization. Of them, Wisler has the best chance to stick as a member of the rotation long-term, as he profiles as useful No. 3 or No. 4 sort. Banuelos' health concerns may push him into a relief role, and Perez's has a terrific sinker but perhaps not the secondary offerings to make it as a starter. Don't expect great things from this unit in 2016, but keep an eye on Wisler's development.
Should things fall apart, Mike Foltynewicz is there to provide depth, as are veteran retreads Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Volstad. Uninspiring names, those. Tyrell Jenkins should make his way to Atlanta at some point in 2016, and thus will begin a fairly stead influx of high-ceiling arms. Also on the way are the likes of John Gant, Sean Newcomb, Aaron Blair, Kolby Allard, and Touki Toussaint. We'll probably also see Gant and Blair at some point in the season to come.
In any event, you can expect the Braves to have one of the NL's worst rotations in 2016, but this organization right now is all about building future value. There's plenty of that in place.
The bullpen
Yes, closer Jason Grilli is 39, but skills retention is more important than age with pitchers, so there's every reason to expect he'll continue to be effective in 2016, barring injury. Arodys Vizcaino will be effective from the right side, and Chris Withrow can miss bats. Shae Simmons could crack the roster after coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he profiles as useful. Don't be surprised if the Braves start the season relying on Jim Johnson and veteran NRIs like Alex Torres, Alexi Ogando, and David Carpenter. Allowing those guys to establish some near-term value in advance of the trade deadline may help the Braves be active on that front. After Aug. 1., the Braves may transition to a younger bullpen and start evaluating for the future.
The outlook
Yes, the Braves are going to be a bad team in 2016. The SportsLine projection system tabs them for an MLB-worst record of 63-99, and that's a reasonable forecast. Again, though, the Braves, in their final season in Turner Field before moving to suburban Cobb County, have no present designs on contention. It's all about 2018 and beyond (they'd probably say 2017, but let's be realistic about things).
Since they added Swanson, the top overall pick of 2015, via trade and will pick No. 3 overall (and No. 40) in June of this year, those are more potential impact talents added to a system that’s already brimming with upside. It's entirely possible they wind up with the top overall pick in 2017, as well. This is already perhaps the strongest farm system in baseball, and they've still got a couple of bullets left to fire. Another thing to watch in 2016 as the losses mount is whether the Braves look to trade Inciarte or even Markakis in exchange for more future value. Meantime, they'll battle with the Phillies for deep last place in the NL East.
