Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the Arizona Diamondbacks are up.
Previous: ATL | BOS | CIN | CHW | COL | DET | MIA | MIL | OAK | PHI | SD | SEA
The Arizona Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in baseball last season. Sure, that might sound weird, but it's a simple fact. They ranked second in the NL in runs scored, second in average, third in on-base percentage and second in slugging. They were even second in stolen bases.
Not only that, they were an exceptional defensive team. All advanced defensive metrics had Arizona as a top-10 defense in baseball, while some had it in the top five. Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved metric had it as the best in baseball, topping the world-champion Royals.
So why were the D-Backs 79-83? That much should be obvious: the pitching, specifically the rotation, which ranked 11th in the NL with a 4.37 ERA (the only teams worse were the Reds, Brewers, Phillies, Rockies).
So what did general manager Dave Stewart go out and do? He shocked the baseball world by signing Zack Greinke to a huge deal and coughed up a significant package to land Shelby Miller -- not a frontline starter but a fine mid-rotation option -- in a trade. There were other moves, but those were the two big ones that Stewart and the rest of Arizona hope catapult the D-Backs back into the postseason for the first time since 2011.
The Lineup
First-year manager Chip Hale didn't employ a single lineup more than five times last season, so things will vary here. It sounds like newly-acquired Jean Segura will lead off to begin the season. That's a mistake, but we'll go with what the boss wants.
1. Jean Segura, 2B
2. A.J. Pollock, CF
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4. David Peralta, RF
5. Welington Castillo, C
6. Jake Lamb, 3B
7. Yasmany Tomas, LF
8. Nick Ahmed, SS
OK, so let's talk about Segura setting the table for two legitimate superstars -- even if they are woefully underrated in most of the country -- in Pollock and Goldschmidt. Sure, Segura was an All-Star in Milwaukee in 2013. In the past two seasons, however, he has an on-base percentage of .285. The NL average OBP last year was .316.
Not much more needs to be said. Segura is not suited to hit first, and Hale will surely make a change quickly unless Segura miraculously returns to 2013 form (when his OBP was .329, which is far from great).
Despite being such a good offense last season, there are questions. Not with Pollock and Goldschmidt, of course, but elsewhere.
Can Peralta repeat? Since converting from pitcher in the minors, he doesn't have a ton of pro experience. He did, however, hit .312/.371/.522 (139 OPS+) with 26 doubles, 10 triples and 17 homers last season. He needs to prove that wasn't a mirage.
How about Castillo? In 310 games for the Cubs, he hit 29 homers with a 97 OPS+. With 80 games in Arizona last season, he hit 17 homers with a 116 OPS+. Breakthrough or fluke?
The sweet-swinging Lamb has great upside, but in 107 games last season he hit .263/.331/.386.
And then there's Tomas, thrust into everyday duty thanks to Ender Inciarte being flipped to Atlanta in the Miller trade. My colleague Mike Axisa covered Tomas in January and it still applies.
Defensively, the D-Backs are a bit worse in the outfield thanks to Inciarte's departure. Tomas in left moves Peralta to right. There will be an impact, even if it's not a huge one. They should be very effective otherwise, especially with Ahmed doing this thing at short.
The Rotation
1. Zack Greinke, RHP
2. Patrick Corbin, LHP
3. Shelby Miller, RHP
4. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP
5. Robbie Ray, LHP
ALT: Josh Collmenter, RHP
As noted, ace Greinke goes to the top and Miller is plenty capable of being a good number three on a contender. What we didn't yet mention is Corbin.
The lefty was an All-Star in 2013 at the age of 23. He would go 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA in 208 1/3 innings that season. He missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and made it back for roughly half of last year. He was good, going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA (113 ERA+) and 78 strikeouts against 17 walks in 85 innings. That's not great, but let's keep in mind that usually -- barring medical setbacks -- the second year back from Tommy John surgery is the return-to-form year.
So not only is the Cy Young runner-up added to the rotation along with a 25-year-old right-hander with a 3.22 career ERA (115 ERA+), but there's also a full season of what should be an improved Corbin.
De La Rosa is probably too old at this point (27 this year) to expect a total breakout, but last year was his first time in the rotation for a full season. It's conceivable that he could improve. Ray posted a 3.52 ERA (116 ERA+) as a 23-year-old, so there's definitely upside there. Even if he just has the same season over and over again, that's very good for a back-end guy.
Might we see long-touted prospect Archie Bradley up for good? He's still only 23. Walks have long been an issue, but he has the stuff to succeed if he can channel his control.
If everything breaks right, envisioning a Greinke-Corbin-Miller-Ross-Bradley rotation down the stretch as very good isn't out of line at all.
The Bullpen
If there was one area that probably could have used a little more attention this offseason, it was the bullpen. Sure, Stewart added Tyler Clippard, but it's still an unexciting bunch. Not terrible, of course. I'm not suggesting hacking up the entire bullpen. A scalpel approach would have worked.
Last season the D-Backs were eighth in the NL with a 3.56 bullpen ERA. They blew 21 saves, more than all but three other NL teams.
Brad Ziegler returns as closer. He's not a prototypical closer, as he only struck out 36 hitters in 68 innings last season. He keeps it on the ground -- and with a great defense behind him, it's a good formula.
I've already covered the question of Clippard being able to bounce back from a terrible finish or not, so for more on him, definitely go check that out. Betting on him having a good season makes sense, though.
Behind those two, Daniel Hudson did a decent job in his conversion to a full-time reliever last season with 71 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings. Randall Delgado shaved more than a point-and-a-half off his ERA (4.87 to 3.25) and struck out 73 hitters in 72 innings, too. Collmenter will be the long man if he isn't needed to fill a hole in the rotation, and he's fine there.
The lefties are Andrew Chafin (2.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and Matt Reynolds (4.61 ERA, 1.54 WHIP).
Basically, there are some pieces here worth optimism, but overall it looks like a middle-of-the-road group. This can be enough to contend, sure, and there's always the trade deadline for Stewart to add to the bullpen if need be. Surely we can count on him being aggressive if they are in the race.
While I've noted that it could be better, let's not mistake this for me saying the bullpen is in a terrible situation, because it's not.
The Outlook
The Diamondbacks are going to be a fun team to follow. Not only is the offense very exciting, but it's going to be interesting to see how things unfold. Many of the computer-based systems peg them as being more a mediocre team than a contender or even regressing from last season. This would be from the point of view that the offense played over its head last season and so it won't be nearly as good.
The pitching will be a lot better, though, so that should be able to mitigate some offensive shortfall.
While I do think the Diamondbacks enter the season as the third-best team in the NL West, I think they are every bit a legitimate playoff contender -- as mentioned in my over/under column where I took the "over."
If nothing else, we should never begrudge a team for "going for it" while a player like Goldschmidt is in his prime. That should not be wasted, and the 2016 season will be about the D-Backs trying to take advantage of having a player of his caliber.
Mid-80s in wins seems like a quality prediction, with some good luck pushing them toward 90 and bad luck putting them in a similar position as last season.
Up Next: Previewing the Tampa Bay Rays
