Andruw Jones running out of time on the Hall of Fame ballot; will his defense carry him over the line?

In my ongoing series of profiling candidates for the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame class, I already noted that this cycle might be the best chance for Carlos Beltrán to make it into the Hall. Fellow center fielder Andruw Jones might be in a similar situation, only there's much more urgency to Jones' case. 

This is Jones' ninth year on the ballot out of a maximum of 10 tries. Between the 2019 and 2023 ballots, Jones' vote percentage skyrocketed upward, but the gains the last two years were more modest and might be concerning for Jones advocates. 

Here's a look at the nine years and his percentages of the vote, in order, keeping in mind he needs 75% to get in: 

• 2018: 7.3%
• 2019: 7.5%
• 2020: 19.4%
• 2021: 33.9%
• 2022: 41.4%
• 2023: 58.1%
• 2024: 61.6%
• 2025: 66.2%

If Jones adds 4.6 points in each of the next two voting cycles -- as he did between 2024 and 2025 -- he'd end up with 75.4% of the vote in his 10th and final year, squeaking into the Hall of Fame. 

It isn't that simple, of course. The voting body is fluid, but there is usually always a hard ceiling. Most players hit that ceiling before 75% and that's what makes the Hall of Fame special. Others finally break through in their second-to-last or last voting cycle. 

This year is a relatively weak year on the ballot, so it's possible there are extra openings on ballots for Small Hall voters who prefer to only vote for a few players a year, despite being allowed to select 10. Things start to get a bit more crowded next year when Buster Posey comes on the ballot. 

I do not think this is Jones' last chance, but he's really cutting it close here. It might well come down to the wire like it did for Billy Wagner (in), Gary Sheffield (out), Barry Bonds (out), Roger Clemens (out), Larry Walker (in) and Edgar Martinez (in).

In Jones' career, spanning parts of 17 seasons, he hit .254/.337/.486 (111 OPS+) with 1,933 hits, 383 doubles, 36 triples, 434 home runs, 1,289 RBI, 1,204 runs, 152 stolen bases and 62.7 WAR. 

If that WAR seems a bit out of whack for a player with the modest-looking batting average and on-base percentage, consider the defensive component. There's plenty of room in Cooperstown for excellent defenders who weren't great hitters. Ozzie Smith is a defense-first Hall of Famer, so is Bill Mazeroski, albeit one who is a massive step down from Smith. Jones is a step down from Smith, but there's an argument to be made that he's the greatest defensive outfielder ever. I've made it before.

If we're talking about the best defensive outfielder ever, his offense really shouldn't matter much, no? And Jones still hit 434 home runs. Let's also keep in mind that Jones came up at age 19 and then had a drastic decline late in his career. His peak at the plate was pretty impressive. From 1998-2006 -- nine years spanning his ages 21-29 seasons -- Jones hit .270/.347/.513, good for a 119 OPS+. Now we're talking. Remember, this was the best defender in baseball at the time. 

It's possible the domestic violence arrest after Jones was already done playing is hanging over his head. On Christmas Day 2012, he allegedly assaulted his wife and threatened to kill her; Jones pleaded guilty and paid a fine. I wouldn't blame voters for withholding a vote due to this. I've held my nose and voted for him both last year and this year, with the justification that it's a difficult decision and that I'm only weighing a player's career as a player. 

Given what we've seen for decades, though, my hunch is that Jones completely falling apart after signing a big contract in free agency -- and letting himself get noticeably out of shape -- is the main factor keeping him out so far. In his last five years, he hit .210/.316/.424 (95 OPS+) with just 1.7 WAR and became a national punchline. That clouded the best parts of his career. The post-playing career arrest certainly didn't help matters.

On the field though 2007, though, Jones put together a body of work that makes him a quality peak candidate for the Hall. 

Sure enough, the JAWS system has Jones 11th all-time among center fielders. He's very slightly below the average current Hall of Fame center fielder, but he's ahead of Richie Ashburn, Andre Dawson, Earl Averill, Max Carey, Kirby Puckett, Earl Combs, Edd Roush, Hack Wilson and a few others.

If we only looked at statistics and factored in his defensive prowess, by no means would Jones be a bad induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

He still needs a jump in voting, though. There were 394 votes cast last season, meaning a player needed 296 to get to the 75% threshold. Jones got 261 votes, leaving him 33 short. 

Can he add the needed votes this year with the relatively weak ballot? It's a big opportunity. Jones just has to hope he didn't plateau.