The Atlanta Braves enter the 2018 campaign having endured four straight losing seasons and three straight seasons of at least 90 losses. Those struggles have been largely by design, as the Braves have undertook a deep rebuild from which they're just starting to emerge. While another sub-.500 effort is probably in the offing, they're ready to build around what may be the best farm system in baseball. New GM Alex Anthopoulos's task is to sort out the best long-term pieces while positioning the roster to contend as soon as 2019.
As for 2018, let's break it down ...
The vitals
- 2017 record: 72-90, third place in NL East (minus-89 run differential)
- 2018 depth chart: Click here
- 2018 schedule: Click here
- 2018 fantasy outlook: Click here
Probable lineup
- Ender Inciarte, CF
- Ozzie Albies, 2B
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Tyler Flowers, C
- Nick Markakis, RF
- Preston Tucker, LF
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Rio Ruiz, 3B
Probable bench: Lane Adams, OF; Charlie Culberson, INF; Danny Santana, INF/OF; Kurt Suzuki, C
Probable rotation
- Julio Teheran, RHP
- Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
- Brandon McCarthy, RHP
- Sean Newcomb, LHP
- Scott Kazmir, LHP
Probable bullpen
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Setup: Jose Ramirez, RHP; A.J. Minter, LHP
Middle: Peter Moylan, RHP; Sam Freeman, LHP; Dan Winkler, RHP; Matt Wisler, RHP
Long: Chase Whitley, RHP
The Acuna question
After completely dominating the high minors last season and then walloping pitch after pitch in spring training, Ronald Acuna -- perhaps the top prospect in all of baseball -- is without question ready for the highest level. That's especially the case considering it's Preston Tucker who's in essence blocking his path to Atlanta. Obviously, the Braves are manipulating Acuna's service time in order to gain an extra year of control over him. That's rational from the standpoint of management, as the Braves aren't likely to contend this season. However, it very much goes against the principle of baseball being some kind of meritocracy.
Acuna absolutely deserves to be on the active roster, and he's proved himself to be ready for the majors. Instead of getting what he deserves, though, the Braves are pretending he needs two weeks of time at Triple-A.
After April 13, the Braves will have that extra year of control, and soon after that point you can expect Acuna to be promoted to Atlanta. That means he's in line for almost a full season in the bigs, which means he remains a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year honors and all the rest. The mystery is why the MLBPA, fresh off a similar fiasco involving Kris Bryant and the Cubs, didn't seek to address this during the last round of CBA negotiations. As Acuna demonstrates, players are still paying for that faulty prioritizing.
Upside in the middle infield
Acuna rightly gets the most attention among the Braves' multitude of young players, but don't sleep on the middle infield. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is still just 21 years of age, and he acquitted himself very nicely in a 57-game look last season (112 OPS+ and eight steals over that span). Albies showed advanced on-base skills coming up through the minors, and coming into the 2017 campaign both MLB and Baseball America tabbed him as the No. 11 overall prospect in baseball. Obviously, Albies has a high ceiling.
Let us also not forget about shortstop Dansby Swanson. Swanson in his rookie season of 2017 struggled badly (69 OPS+), but bear in mind he's still just 24 years of age. Also bear in mind that Swanson was a consensus top-five overall prospect going into that rookie season. To be sure, 2018 is a critical season for him, but it's far too soon forget about him. Swanson was not so long ago one of the best prospects in the game.
Pitching on the way
Pitching has been the predominant focus of the Braves' rebuild, and the sorting out begins this season. As noted above, Foltynewicz (age 26) and Newcomb (24) figure to be part of the rotation to start the season, and Minter (24) should be a primary bullpen piece. Moreover, the list of consensus top-100 Braves pitching prospects is a long one. For instance, there's (deep breath) Max Fried, Kolby Allard, Luiz Gohara, Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Austin Riley, and Joey Wentz. Of those, Gohara, Fried, Soroka, and Allard should hit Atlanta for good at some point in the upcoming season. That's an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young pitchers, and the "let God sort 'em out" approach will be in full swing soon enough. The attrition rate will be high, as is the case with young pitching, but the strength in numbers is undeniable.
Big plans for 2019?
The Braves have a new ballpark built largely on the backs of taxpayers, and they've been running low payrolls for a number of years. In other words, they're awash in revenues, and the expectation is that the Braves will start spending during the 2018-19 offseason, when so many compelling free agents hit the market. By then, much of that multitude of prospects will be settled in and sorted out, and it will be time for Anthopoulos and company to build a contending roster around them and franchise slugger Freddie Freeman. Speaking of all that, the Braves have less than $40 million in long-term salary obligations on the books for 2019. Yes, the dollars should fly next winter.
You can squint and come to the conclusion that the Braves could've been fringe wild-card contenders had they conducted their winter accordingly, but that's not what happened. Instead, they profile as a fourth-place team in the NL East with distant-second-place upside. So Braves fans should focus their karmic powers on development, perhaps flipping Teheran for more young pups leading up to the deadline, and making the most of the club's No. 8 overall pick in the June draft. Otherwise, expect a loss total in the mid- to high-80s and better days ahead.
