Why Félix Hernández, Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte make the case for a new Baseball Hall of Fame standard

Next month will mark the 10-year anniversary of when I wrote that an entire generation of starting pitchers aren't getting their due in Hall of Fame voting. Since then, we've seen Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina and CC Sabathia get inducted. Down the road, we're going to see Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer (and I sure as hell hope Zack Greinke) fly into the Hall with relative ease. 

With the other pitchers of the 2000s, though, we're bound to continue to see them face a much steeper climb toward Cooperstown than past generations. 

There are 67 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame, at present. Of those, 29 debuted in 1929 or prior. From 1950-69, 17 more debuted. As things stand, there are only four Hall of Fame starting pitchers who debuted between 1990 and today. Even if we wanted to lump in those four automatics above, that only gets us to eight Hall of Fame starters in a span of 35 years. 

There's a shortfall.

I've noted plenty of times before that we need to lower our standards for the current starting pitching candidate in terms of innings pitched, wins and WAR when compared to eras far in the past. Pitchers are treated differently nowadays and voting should reflect that.

I've already made the case for Hamels. He got his own column since it's his first year on the ballot, but I wanted to hit on three returnees in Mark Buehrle (sixth year on ballot, 11.4% of the vote last year), Andy Pettitte (eighth year, 27.9%) and Félix Hernández (second year, 20.6%).

With Buehrle, the case is the longevity and how much of a workhorse he was, especially given the era. From Buehrle's full case, which I wrote in 2023, this part stands out. 

In fact, here's a list of the pitchers with the most 200-inning seasons in the 2000s:

1. Buehrle, 14
2. Justin Verlander, 12
3. James Shields, 10
t4. Zack Greinke, 9
t4. Livan Hernandez, 9
t4. Javier Vazquez, 9

How about that, huh? CC Sabathia and Jon Lester had eight each. Max Scherzer has six. Clayton Kershaw only has five.

Starting pitchers are taking on much less work than in the distant past, but it wasn't nearly as drastic a few years ago as many people seem to think. In 2015, Buehrle's last year, starters averaged 5.8 innings per start. It was 5.9 his rookie year in 1999. In 1980, it was 6.3 and in 1960 it was 6.4. In 1940, it was 6.9. So it was a gradual decline, but not to the point that we would be giving Buehrle a ton of extra credit for shorter workloads in his era.

In fact, if we looked at the most 200-inning seasons in a career all-time, Buehrle is in good company. There are only 14 pitchers who had 15 200-inning seasons. All but two (Jack Powell and Roger Clemens) are Hall of Famers (list here). And Buehrle was just four outs in his last season from hitting 200 for a 15th time. Those with exactly 14 200-inning seasons: Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Jim Kaat, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn, Red Ruffing and Christy Mathewson. Everyone but Buehrle is already a Hall of Famer.

From this point of view, Buehrle was an all-time great workhorse. 

Pettitte was also a workhorse. He topped 200 innings 10 times and finished with 3,316 in the regular season. He won 256 games, a very high number especially given his era. Pettitte sits 82nd in starting pitcher JAWS, just three spots behind Buehrle. He's ahead of Hall of Famers like Whitey Ford, Burleigh Grimes, Eppa Rixey, Waite Hoyt, Dizzy Dean and Jim Kaat, among others, including several from eras in which Hall of Fame starting pitchers got plenty more due than this current one. He was also 19-11 with 276 ⅔ innings in his career in the playoffs. I think there's room for bonus points from postseason work and Pettitte certainly qualifies.

As for King Félix, consider this my apology for not voting for him last season. I am rectifying the injustice this season by casting a vote for him this year. As a peak candidate, Hernández's case is the opposite of Buehrle's. That peak was glorious, though, and if I'm wanting to slightly lower the standard for starting pitchers in this era, I need to loop in someone with Hernández's peak. 

The thing that swayed me after not voting for him last year was when I threw out any stats and just thought back on these three pitchers at the height of their powers. We'll include Hamels now, since I already said I'm voting for him. Could I really check the boxes for Hamels, Pettitte and Buehrle while neglecting to vote for Hernández knowing that -- despite the longevity shortfall -- Hernández in his prime was easily the best pitcher of the four. 

There was a stretch of six years where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and, at times, the best pitcher in the world. He won a Cy Young and finished as the runner-up in voting twice, also finishing fourth once and eighth once in that span. He won two ERA titles. He was certainly a Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher for those six seasons. 

His average year from 2009-14: 14-9 (on some bad teams, keep in mind), 2.73 ERA, 141 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 226 strikeouts, 232 innings pitched, 5.6 WAR. 

I've also, in prior Hall of Fame discussions, given bonus points for players whose fame takes them to another level, the athletes who actually become celebrities. King Félix was such a huge deal that I'm totally fine with giving him a little extra bump when we're talking about the Hall of Fame.

Even without the longevity, the JAWS system -- which, correctly, accounts for a great peak -- isn't totally unkind to Hernández. He's 97th all-time among starters. Guess who is 96th? A peak Hall of Famer whose career was cut way short by injury. Sandy Koufax. Jacob deGrom is 99th. 

This gives a nice illustration of the difference between a Pettitte/Buehrle-type candidate and a peak candidate. Félix Hernández is in the cut of a Koufax- and deGrom-type candidate. Dizzy Dean was another. Mileage varies with each voter on each particular candidate, of course, but I believe I erred last season and I'm fixing that this time around. I will be a Félix Hernández voter and I'm sorry about the miss last voting cycle.

Given their vote percentages last season compared with how many more voting cycles they have left, I don't think Pettitte or Buehrle have a chance to make the Hall of Fame, but I'm still looking to do my part here in voting for them. Hernández might be different, though, getting a touch over 20% in his first try. It's a relatively weak ballot this cycle and it's possible he mounts a rise to Cooperstown.

Regardless, I'm content to take part in the movement for pushing starting pitchers from these most recent decades.