Monday morning, the Baseball Writers Association of America released the official 2018 Hall of Fame ballot. The 35-player ballot includes 15 holdovers from last year and 20 newcomers.
Here are those candidates new to the ballot, in alphabetical order:
- Rick Ankiel
- Jason Bay
- Lance Berkman
- Freddy Garcia
- Jon Garland
- Travis Hafner
- Roy Halladay
- Todd Helton
- Ted Lilly
- Derek Lowe
- Darren Oliver
- Roy Oswalt
- Andy Pettitte
- Juan Pierre
- Placido Polanco
- Mariano Rivera
- Miguel Tejada
- Vernon Wells
- Kevin Youkilis
- Michael Young
Obviously, Rivera is going in on the first ballot, and, despite being a reliever, will perhaps threaten the highest ballot percentage of all-time (Ken Griffey Jr.'s 99.3 percent in 2016). The late Halladay is also a strong bet to go in. Helton and Pettitte also figure to have plenty of supporters, but they're not likely to be first-ballot selections. A candidate drops off if he fails to be named on at least 5.0 percent of ballots, and most of the names you see above will likely meet that fate.
And now here are the returning candidates, along with how many years they've been on the ballot and their ballot percentage from last year (by way of reminder, players can spend a maximum of 10 years on the BBWAA ballot, and they must be named on at least 75 percent of ballots to be elected):
| Player | Year on ballot | 2017 ballot percentage |
|---|---|---|
Edgar Martinez | 10th | 70.4 |
Mike Mussina | Sixth | 63.5 |
Roger Clemens | Seventh | 57.3 |
Barry Bonds | Seventh | 56.4 |
Curt Schilling | Sixth | 51.2 |
Omar Vizquel | Second | 37.0 |
Larry Walker | Ninth | 34.1 |
Fred McGriff | 10th | 23.2 |
Manny Ramirez | Third | 22.0 |
Jeff Kent | Sixth | 14.5 |
Gary Sheffield | Fifth | 11.1 |
Billy Wagner | Fourth | 11.1 |
Scott Rolen | Second | 10.2 |
Sammy Sosa | Seventh | 7.8 |
Andruw Jones | Second | 7.3 |
This is Martinez's last shot to make it via the BBWAA ballot, and as you can see he's close to making it. Assuming a 10th-year boost, he seems likely to make it. Mussina has been tracking steadily upward (he started at 20.3 percent in 2014), and he made big gains last year. Throw in the fact that he's over-qualified for the Hall, and he's on a path to get in, possibly as soon as this year. The other big subplot among returnees is whether Bonds and Clemens can continue their methodical march forward. Neither made big gains last year, so the 2018 results will be critical in terms of getting them back on target to make it within the 10-year limit.
The BBWAA will announce the results of its 2019 Hall of Fame balloting on Jan. 22, alongside the results of the Today's Game Era ballot. Any electees will be inducted on Sunday, July 21, at 1:30 p.m. ET at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown. The question boils down to who will be joining Rivera in the class of 2019.