Streaky Uggla takes a seat. (Getty Images) |
All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla is not in the Braves' lineup Monday, and moving forward he's reportedly been told by manager Fredi Gonzalez that regular playing time is not necessarily in the cards.
On the surface, the decision makes lots of sense. Uggla is hitting .208 this season, including a horrible .182 since the All-Star break. The Braves don't have to shake things up much to bench Uggla, either, because they have the option to play Martin Prado at second base and Reed Johnson in left field.
There are, however, a few issues that cannot be ignored.
First of all, concentrating only on batting average is folly. Uggla's .340 on-base percentage for the season is fine, and teamed with 17 homers he has a decent combination of power and on-base ability -- especially for a second baseman.
The funny thing here is that Johnson is getting credit for being "hot," because he has a high batting average since coming to the Braves, but his OPS is .745. Uggla's OPS on the season is .713. A handful of plate appearances can erase that small difference.
The other layer is the fact that Uggla is a historically streaky player. Going through his month-by-month splits is like riding a roller coaster. If you bench the guy, you risk missing out on the rewards while having sat through all the rough spots. The Braves have seen Uggla turn things around without notice first-hand, too. Last season, Uggla was hitting .173/.241/.327 through the fourth of July. Had Gonzalez benched him, the Braves would have missed the proverbial switch being flipped. Uggla hit .301/.386/.596 with 24 homers and 53 RBI in his remaining 75 games.
It's tough to blame any manager for trying to shake things up with a struggling player -- lest he keep the player in the lineup and be accused of being asleep at the wheel -- but it would actually take more guts to keep playing the guy. A streaky player like Uggla isn't going to get hot while riding pine and he's actually making a similar amount of outs (see: OBP) as Jason Heyward is on the season.
Put simply: Uggla's benching is another culprit of overemphasis on batting average and the flawed "hot hand" theory. It doesn't appear we'll get the chance to find out if Uggla has another hot streak in him. Instead, the Braves will trot out a low-upside guy who has put together a high batting average in less than 60 at-bats since joining the club -- or low-upside Jose Constanza, as they did Monday -- and almost no one will complain. In fact, most will agree with the move. God bless groupthink.
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