Best MLB bets for tonight's Division Series action

The Yankees are scoring nine runs per game in the postseason

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 7, 2020 at 3:22 pm ET • 6 min read

On Sunday, Washington Football Team quarterback Dwayne Haskins might have had the best start of his young NFL career. He completed 32 of his 45 passes for 314 yards in Washington's 31-17 loss to Baltimore. Both the passing yardage and completion percentage (71.1%) were the best of his career. So, it's only natural that new coach Ron Rivera would choose now to pull the plug on Haskins as Washington's starter, right?

That's precisely what Rivera has done, and while the timing might be a bit of a surprise, the decision isn't. When he took over the job, the coach made it clear that he didn't have any connections to anybody on this roster. Rivera had nothing to do with drafting Haskins. Maybe he's pulling the plug too early, but it's obvious he has more faith in Kyle Allen -- whom Rivera does have ties to from Carolina -- to turn this ship around than Haskins.

Let's also not forget that this team plays in the NFC East, and in the NFC East, going 7-9 might be good enough to win the division and make the playoffs.

As for Haskins, while I didn't have great expectations for him coming out of college, I do believe there's more to him than what he's shown in the NFL so far. My biggest concern about Haskins in the NFL is that he doesn't move. He's great at seeing the field and making his reads, but if he's not playing behind a strong offensive line, he's got no chance. I could see him going somewhere like Indianapolis -- where they employ a similar QB in Philip Rivers behind a great line -- and finding success. But Haskins is a QB from a bygone era. One which might have worked 25 years ago but is becoming obsolete in the modern game.

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All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Yankees vs. Rays, 7:10 p.m. | TV: TBS
The Pick: Yankees Over 5.5 runs (+175): It must be fun to manage the Yankees. Aaron Boone has been picked apart by anybody and everybody after last night's pitching game plan. Never mind if it made sense or if it was a defensible strategy. It didn't work; therefore, it was stupid, and the Yankees are morons for outthinking themselves. On the flip side, if it had worked, Boone would be a genius. Anyway, I don't know what Boone's plan is for his pitching staff tonight. I'm sure he'd love a complete game shutout from Masahiro Tanaka.

I'm not focused on that, though. I'm focusing on a Yankees offense that is crushing the baseball right now. Even in a loss, the Yankees managed to score five runs last night. Tonight, I expect more of the same. Charlie Morton started to show his age this season. He had an ERA of 4.74, which is the worst he's had since 2015. His WHIP spiked to 1.395, and he's allowing 10.2 hits per nine innings.

Furthermore, his strikeout rate of 24.7% is the lowest it's been since that 2015 season. We might see another offensive explosion from the Bronx Bombers tonight, and I love the price on this total. If you're more comfortable taking Over 4.5 (+103), that's fine too. But I'm going for the bigger payday.

Key Trend: The Yankees are scoring nine runs per game in the postseason.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side in the Yankees-Rays ALDS game at 7:10 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game today, here.

💰The Picks

⚾ MLB

Dodgers vs. Padres, 9:08 p.m | TV: FS1
The Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) -- It's not difficult to convince me to take an under at even odds. Especially when Clayton Kershaw is one of the night's starting pitchers, and the game is being played in a park that has proven to be quite pitcher-friendly during its lone season of existence. Kershaw has had a lot of success against these Padres hitters in his career, limiting them to a wOBA of .271 in 131 plate appearances. Also, while I don't know how long Jayce Tingler (what a name) plans on letting Zach Davies go for the Padres tonight, he's been effective against these Dodgers as well. In 133 plate appearances against him, Dodgers hitters have a wOBA of .237.

Key Trend: The under is 6-2 the last eight times the Dodgers have been favored in the playoffs.

⚽ MLS

New England vs. Toronto, 7:30 p.m | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Under 2.5 (+110) -- Is soccer making its newsletter debut? Yes, it is! I saw the juice on this under and wanted to jump on board. New England has been excellent defensively at home this season, allowing only five goals in seven matches and an expected goals (xG) allowed of 5.7. Toronto is healthy defensively itself and has averaged only 1.5 xG in seven road matches this season. This game will stay below this total often enough to take the under at this price.

Key Trend: New England's seven home matches this season have featured an average of 1.4 goals per match.

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💸 The DFS Rundown

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw ($10.3K FD/$9.6K DK) -- Kershaw's likely to have the highest ownership on the late slate tonight, and that's fine. You want to go with the herd on this one. He offers the highest floor and the highest ceiling against a Padres lineup he's had success against in a pitcher's park. If putting together multiple lineups, consider having San Diego's Zach Davies in a few as a contrarian play.

Value Hitter

Ji-Man Choi ($2.5K FD/$3.1K DK) -- Choi has swung the bat well through the first two games of this series, and while he doesn't have much success in his career against Masahiro Tanaka, it's not a bad matchup for him. I won't be shocked if he runs into a dinger tonight.

Full lineup advice

SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he's picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.