The 2024 Major League Baseball postseason continues on Thursday with a pair of American League Division Series Game 4s. First, the Cleveland Guardians, down 2-1 in their best-of-five series, play an elimination game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 p.m. ET. Then in the nightcap the New York Yankees, up 2-1, try to close out the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. That one gets underway at 8:08 p.m. ET.
To set the scene for these two pivot contests, let's lay out one key question for each team heading into Thursday's slate.
Guardians: Will the Guardians' offense show up?
Cleveland comes into its must-win Game 4 against the Tigers having been shut out for 20 straight innings. Not since the sixth inning of Game 1 have the Guaridans put any runs on the board. In Game 2, Tigers ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal smothered and dominated the Guards for seven innings. That's forgivable, of course. Then, however, Game 3 saw the Cleveland lineup held scoreless by six Tigers relievers in one of A.J. Hinch's bullpen games. Game 4 figures to be another such affair by Hinch and Detroit, and if the Guards' bats don't show up then it could be curtains for the AL Central champs.
This plays into a larger reality for the Guardians, and that reality is that the offense has struggled for some time. They began the season as a surprisingly strong unit, but as the season wore on and regression set in, the offense found a lower level. This puts a finer point on it:
| Cleveland offense | AVG/OBP/SLG | Runs/game |
|---|---|---|
First half | .243/.316/.405 | 4.78 |
Second half | .230/.295/.381 | 3.85 |
The Guardians could use a dose of that first-half offense in order to force a decisive Game 5 back in Cleveland.
Tigers: Can the Detroit bullpen keep it up?
By implication above, you can probably surmise that the Tigers' bullpen has been a difference-maker in this series thus far. Hinch's stable of relievers this postseason have teamed up for an ERA of 1.86. Perhaps more impressive is that those relievers have worked a combined 29 innings over their five postseason games to date. Hinch indicated that his pitching strategy in the playoffs would be "chaos" outside of Skubal's starts (you'll recall that the Tigers traded away No. 2 starter Jack Flaherty leading up to the trade deadline). It's indeed been chaos – mostly for opposing hitters.
It's worth noting that the Detroit bullpen was a strong unit during the regular season. Over that span, they ranked fifth in the majors in relief ERA, and they led the majors in relief innings by a significant margin. Game 4 figures to be another test and another heavy lift for those Tigers relief arms.
Yankees: Will Aaron Judge make an impact?
The Yankees' legendary cloutsman was the best hitter in baseball during the regular season (and has been the best hitter in baseball for a number of years). Judge, though, has yet to have a signature moment in this ALDS. He comes into Game 4 having gone 1 for 11 with a single, three walks, and five strikeouts against the Royals in this series. To state the obvious, that's a tiny sample and not something that cries out for deeper analysis. Even the best endure such mini-stretches of struggles. Obviously, the Yankees have survived without much from Judge during this series, but if they want to close the Royals out on Thursday then some thunder from their No. 3 hitter would be helpful. Judge ended the regular season by homering five times in his final six games, so he's not far removed from vintage outputs. One positive sign? Judge notched the hardest-hit ball in play of Game 3, which was a 114.4-mph line-drive out in the first inning.
Royals: Will Bobby Witt Jr. make an impact?
As long as we're talking about struggling superstars, there's Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who seems likely to finish second to Judge in the AL MVP balloting. Witt during the regular season slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 home runs, 45 doubles, and 31 stolen bases. In the ALDS against the Yankees, however, he's just 1 for 13 with a single, a walk, five strikeouts, and no steals. In the Wild Card Series win over the Orioles, he also failed to record an extra-base hit or a stolen base. Stretching back into the regular season, Witt hasn't homered since Sept. 16. The Royals do not have a deep lineup, which means they need Witt to do the heavy lifting for them. He hasn't done that yet, and one suspects that they'll need more from him on Thursday if there's going to be a Game 5 back in the Bronx.