Who's next to join Baseball Hall of Fame? Carlos Beltrán has best chance, but Astros scandal looms

Carlos Beltrán, Hall of Famer?  Multiple signs point to this being the year that Beltrán is able to reach 75% of the vote on the BBWAA ballot, which would mean he'll get into the Hall of Fame and inducted in the summer of 2026. He could join Jeff Kent in the 2026 class.

Things were already trending this way for Beltrán. Here are his vote percentages from the past three voting cycles, his first three on the ballot: 

• 2023: 46.5%
• 2024: 57.1%
• 2025: 70.3%

Usually this kind of trajectory signals a player is about to be voted in. Some of the stragglers in the voting body decide to join the crowd and tip the player over the edge, not to mention that older voters losing their vote (via death or lapsing BBWAA voting requirements) while newer members (via 10 years in the BBWAA) earn voting privileges. Here at CBS Sports, there were two such examples last season. Both Mike Axisa and myself were first-time voters and we both voted for Beltrán in 2024. 

Also in Beltrán's favor? This is a relatively weak ballot. He's the top returnee on the ballot; Andruw Jones is the only other player who even got 40% or more last time around. The best newcomer is Cole Hamels.

Beltrán doesn't need to add many votes. He fell just 19 shy out of 394 ballots last year. 

The only thing standing in Beltrán's way is the sign-stealing scandal from the 2017 Astros. It's an apples vs. oranges comparison as to why, but we saw Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both plateau shy of the 75% threshold. It happens, especially when something other than on-field performance hangs in the balance.   

The on-field performance was on point. Beltrán in parts of 20 seasons hit .279/.350/.486 (119 OPS+) with 2,725 hits, 565 doubles, 78 triples, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 312 stolen bases and 70.0 WAR. Advanced defensive metrics love him due to excellent range and he was in the top five of outfield assists five times. The five-tool superstar is one of just five players in history with at least 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases. He's one of 39 to reach 1,500 in both runs and RBI. 

Among center fielders in MLB history, Beltrán is eighth in WAR, trailing, in order, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr. and Joe DiMaggio. There are 19 Hall of Fame center fielders. Beltrán sits ahead of current inductees like Duke Snider, Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn and more. 

In terms of postseason performance, Beltrán elevated his game to another level there -- save for one single at-bat that a certain fan base won't forget -- hitting .307/.412/.609 with 15 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs, 42 RBI, 45 runs and 11 steals in 65 playoff games. He won a ring in his final season, though he didn't contribute much to it on the field.

And that is the sticking point, right? Those pesky little words "on the field." Beltrán won his World Series ring with the 2017 Astros. He went 0 for 3 in that World Series, but some would argue he contributed significantly for his role in a stain on baseball.

Those Astros were found to have an illegal sign-stealing operation that season and Beltrán was not only said to be integral, but a ringleader -- if not the ringleader. From a report in The Athletic in 2020: 

During the season, small groups of Astros discussed their misgivings. [Brian] McCann at one point approached Beltrán and asked him to stop, two members of the 2017 team said.

"He disregarded it and steamrolled everybody," one of the team members said. "Where do you go if you're a young, impressionable player with the Astros and this guy says, 'We're doing this'? What do you do?"

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Members of the 2017 Astros use various terms to describe Beltrán — El Jefe, the Godfather, the king, the alpha male in the building.  

Among the guidelines for Hall of Fame voters is this, commonly referred to as the "character clause." 

5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Even if he's not an inner-circle all-time great like Willie Mays, Beltrán's statistical dossier says he should be in the Hall of Fame. Without the sign-stealing cloud hanging over him, he would've gotten in on either his first or second try and surely wouldn't still be on the ballot here in his fourth year.

I don't want to say it's now or never for Beltrán, because that isn't the case. I just think this is his best chance. This is the easiest path for Beltrán to get votes on a weak ballot and he's already so close. Next voting cycle, Buster Posey joins the fray in addition to Jon Lester while Andruw Jones will be in his 10th and final ballot (unless he makes it this time). The ballot after that, Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina arrive in addition to David Price. The 2029 ballot adds Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Zack Greinke, while it's possible Evan Longoria and Adam Wainwright make a dent too. 

All signs point to this being Beltrán's year. If it's not, though, that means it's possible his group of voters has plateaued and then the path just gets tougher moving forward.