Remarkably, last season qualified as a disappointment for the Cleveland Indians.
Although Cleveland won 102 games and notched a 22-game winning streak -- two accomplishments most teams would gladly have define them, postseason fate unknown and unimportant -- its storybook season featured a thud ending. Cleveland blew a 2-0 lead in the best-of-5 Division Series against the New York Yankees, and was rerouted from a potential return to the World Series and to various golf courses across the land.
Cleveland is again expected to field a good squad -- one that should run away with the American League Central. Yet a quiet offseason has folks wondering: Has this team's time passed it by?
The vitals
2017 record: 102-60 (plus-254 run differential)
2018 depth chart: Click here
2018 schedule: Click here
Improved?
By and large, Cleveland sat out the offseason, signing one free agent to a big-league contract and making just a single other external addition to the 40-man roster -- that being Rob Refsnyder, a November waiver claim. This team, then, is largely the same one that finished last season, minus Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Bryan Shaw and others. Hmph.
The big addition to the mix (scare quotes optional) is first baseman Yonder Alonso, who inked a two-year deal worth $16 million (plus a club option) to replace Santana at the cold corner. Alonso is coming off a career year in that he posted a 133 OPS+ and made his first All-Star Game. Before last season, he had never homered more than nine times -- he hit 28 home runs in '17. Alonso's improvements have been credited to added loft in his swing, which also resulted in a 43-percent flyball rate -- for reference, his career mark, even now, is 34 percent.
Presuming Alonso retains enough of those gains to make him an effective replacement for Santana -- and it's not a given -- Cleveland will otherwise bank on internal improvement. Both Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis could stand to contribute more following injury-plagued seasons. Shortstop Francisco Lindor and third baseman Jose Ramirez were already good, yet neither is older than 25 -- could there be some more room to grow? The same question can be asked of long-legged center fielder Bradley Zimmer, entering his first full big-league campaign.
Then there's catcher and top prospect Francisco Mejia. Perhaps best known for almost being included in July 2016's failed Jonathan Lucroy trade, Mejia briefly appeared in the majors last season. He hit .297/.346/.490 in 92 Double-A games with scouts pegging him as a potential well-above-average hitter for the position. If Mejia stays healthy, he will almost certainly usurp Yan Gomes as the Cleveland starting backstop by season's end.
Arms on display
Cleveland's pitching staff gave one of the best single-season performances of all time in 2017. Odds are, they won't repeat that feat in 2018. Still, it's a good group that should be fine despite the departure of pitching coach Mickey Callaway. (Callaway, the New York Mets manager, was replaced by old friend Carl Willis.)
Ace Corey Kluber is looking for his fifth consecutive 200-inning season and top-10 finish in Cy Young Award voting. Carlos Carrasco will be aiming for his second straight 200-inning season -- last year marked the first time he started more than 30 games, as well as the first time he cracked the 200-inning plateau. When healthy, he's one of the nastiest starters in baseball. The rest of the rotation figures to include Trevor Bauer (who continues to improve), Danny Salazar (whose size and injury history could force a move to the bullpen) and Josh Tomlin (an annual threat to lead the majors in home-run rate).
The bullpen will be led, per usual, by Cody Allen and Andrew Miller. There aren't many, if any, better pairings in baseball. Expect both to get hefty free-agent contracts next offseason.
Overlooked?
It's unusual to say a team who won 102 games a year after taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series is underrated, but Cleveland does seem overlooked because of its quiet offseason.
To wit, PECOTA has the new-look Yankees winning 97 games and the upgraded Houston Astros winning 99 games. Cleveland checks in with 96 wins of its own. FanGraphs foresees a greater gap between the Astros and everyone else (eight games separate them from Cleveland), but echos the expected one-game difference between Cleveland and the Yankees.
In other words, there's a fair chance Cleveland finds itself with more wins than the Yankees at season's end -- and perhaps, even, with more wins than the Astros. That should be obvious, but there's no harm saying it amid all the attention given to the other AL favorites.
End of an era
While Cleveland is unlikely to suffer through a mass exodus next winter the way the Kansas City Royals have this winter, there's good reason to think there will be a number of changes forthcoming.
Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall will both qualify for free agency at season's end, promising to alter the look of the outfield. Meanwhile, closer Cody Allen and setup man Andrew Miller are each heading for big paydays, possibly elsewhere. That's without mentioning back-end starter Josh Tomlin and unheralded reliever Zach McAllister.
The good news for Cleveland is there is help on the way. In addition to Mejia, the farm system could graduate first baseman/DH Bobby Bradley (No. 3), infielder Yu-Cheng Chang (No. 6), outfielder Greg Allen (No. 9), and catcher Eric Haase (No. 10) from Baseball Prospectus' top-10 list. Right-handers Triston McKenzie (No. 2) and Shane Bieber (No. 5) could debut sometime late in the year with an eye on locking in gigs during the 2019 campaign.
Cleveland's farm system is near the bottom of the league, but that's a fair amount of internal depth to trade or promote from over the coming season.
Probable lineup
Again, Cleveland's lineup is going to look largely the same, with Alonso figuring to be the only new player who has a chance to break the most-days starting nine. Cleveland had one of the best offenses in baseball in '17, so they wouldn't mind a repeat effort.
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- DH Edwin Encarnacion
- LF Michael Brantley
- 1B Yonder Alonso
- RF Lonnie Chisenhall
- C Yan Gomes
- CF Bradley Zimmer
Bench: C Roberto Gomezerez, OF Brandon Guyer, 3B Giovanny Urshela
Probable rotation
There's nothing much new happening here, either. Doesn't matter -- why fix what's not broke?
- RHP Corey Kluber
- RHP Carlos Carrasco
- RHP Trevor Bauer
- RHP Danny Salazar
- RHP Josh Tomlin
Probable bullpen
Here's the most changed unit on the club, with dependable rubber-arm Bryan Shaw in Colorado and a number of other recognizable names -- mostly Joe Smith and Boone Logan -- off elsewhere as well.
Closer: RHP Cody Allen
Setup: LHP Andrew Miller
Middle: RHP Nick Goody, RHP Dan Otero, RHP Zach McAllister, LHP Tyler Olson
Long: LHP Ryan Merritt
Allen and Miller remain lights out when healthy. Goody and McAllister figure to vie for the right to become Shaw's spiritual successor. Goody tweaked his delivery and flourished, while McAllister has averaged more than an inning per outing since moving to the bullpen in 2015.
