Rizzo and Castro are the centerpieces of the Cubs offense for the foreseeable future. (US Presswire) |
As we move into the last month of this offseason -- pitchers and catchers report in less than a month! -- it's time to continue our Core Values series. Tuesday's entrant: the Chicago Cubs.
To see what we're doing here, my esteemed colleague Dayn Perry has done a rather excellent job of explaining things already, so hop over to the intro of the Rays post and you'll understand.
Other Core Values posts: Tampa Bay Rays | New York Mets
It's important to note that when I grade the Cubs' core at the end of the post, I'm not grading how they will fare in 2013. This series is all about the long-term core of each individual team. The grade is more a judgment of how well each ballclub is set up for the future. With the Cubs having long-term goals and not as worried about the 2013 season as the 2015 season, we need to understand the core here consists of very young big-leaguers and players in the minors.
Cubs' Core Values |
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Cornerstone player: Starlin Castro
The 22-year-old shortstop has already been to the All-Star Game twice and collected 529 hits -- the 20th-most hits in baseball history for players before their age-23 season. In fact, his 10 most similar statistical matches on Baseball-Reference.com through his age 22 season shows four Hall of Famers and one (Alan Trammell) I believe should be a Hall of Famer. So Castro is well on his way to becoming a bona fide superstar.
The Cubs seem to believe Castro is the man to build around, too, because he's about to begin a seven-year, $60 million contract that also contains a club option for 2020.
Also consider that the Cubs have plenty of money, and if Castro's career path trends the way it should, he'll surely get another contract extension well into the 2020s, and for a lot more money. It's far too early in his career to predict how everything will turn out, but as things stand, Castro has the makings of a lifetime Cub.
Faces of the franchise: Castro and Anthony Rizzo
Obviously Castro is the man, but he now has company in the form of first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is only 23 and hit .285/.342/.463 with 15 homers, 48 RBI and 44 runs in just over a half season in 2012. He doesn't (yet) have the long-term contract of Castro, but Rizzo has already cemented himself as the Cubs' three-hole hitter and endeared himself to fans with some big clutch hits in 2012 -- such as a game-winning, two-run, walk-off bomb against the Cardinals in Wrigley.
There won't be many teams in this series with a 22-year-old and 23-year-old listed as the faces of the franchise, but that's where the Cubs are right now in the massive rebuilding project. Plus, both have incredible potential to be stars for years to come on the north side.
Faces of the future: Young position players
Castro and Rizzo aren't going anywhere, and with the amount of money the Cubs can afford to spend, they don't have to worry about losing either budding star to free agency. So is this a clean sweep, with Castro and Rizzo basically taking over every category in this post? Nope, there are more.
Castro and Rizzo will be joined in a few years by some studly position players by the names of Jorge Soler (right fielder), Albert Almora (center fielder) and Javier Baez (shortstop, like Castro) if things go as planned. That's a group of five players that many scouts believe can be All-Star-caliber players. Throw in Brett Jackson (left field eventually, to make room for Almora), Darwin Barney (second base) and Welington Castillo (catcher), and it's plausible to envision the entire starting lineup in 2015 or 2016 (assuming Castro or Baez shift to third base, unless Christian Villanueva blows up, in which case Barney might be out of a job as Castro shifts to second).
The potentially star-studded core, however, is definitely set to be Castro, Rizzo, Soler, Almora and Baez.
Baez, 20, tore up Class A Peoria but struggled in High-A Daytona last year in 23 games. Cuban import Soler, 20, was outstanding (.338/.398/.513) in 20 games for Peoria and Almora was drafted out of high school last summer. So obviously this trio won't be ready to hit the majors in the near future.
Cubs' Core Value: C+. This was a tough one to grade because a lot is based upon the unknown. It's possible these guys end up looking like they deserved a B or even an A down the road. It's just that we have to consider that the likes of Soler, Almora and Baez are still in the lower levels of the minors and stud prospects in the lower levels of the minors sometimes bust. We have to note the possibility that things go south with at least one of the highly-touted prospects, if not two, and that the grade could end up even worse.
Also, while there are some promising arms like Jeff Samardzija, Arodys Vizcaino, Duane Underwood, Dillon Maples and Pierce Johnson, overall the Cubs still don't have enough young pitching in the pipeline to grant a higher grade. Maybe Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza both stick, too, but, again, there's just too much unknown to give a higher grade.
Like I said, though, it's possible there's enough potential good in the core here to see joy in Wrigleyville down the road. It's not out of the question that the names listed above will be the nucleus of the Cubs team that finally wins the World Series (2017? 2018?), if every player pans out the way the Cubs hope.
All that's required is a little patience, and we know Cubs fans are used to that.
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