The Dodgers have made major waves three times this offseason and all involved the pitching staff, at least eventually. One of the moves, obviously, was signing Shohei Ohtani, who won't pitch in 2024 after undergoing what may or may not have been Tommy John surgery late last season. Still, he'll be back for the 2025 season on the mound, so landing him along with Tyler Glasnow (trade then extension) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (free agency) long-term means the Dodgers filled in 60% of their 2025 rotation in a matter of weeks.
Speaking of that rotation, let's take a look at how it shapes up both for next season and 2025.
As we run through this, it'll become evident that while the Dodgers have a lot of pitching talent on board for the 2024 season, there are plenty of question marks. Negative answers to those questions would cause some headaches in the short term. Getting those questions answered during next season, however, will pave the way for an absurdly deep and loaded 2025 rotation. You'll see.
2024
Yamamoto certainly looks like an elite-level ace. He's one of the most decorated pitchers in NPB history and he's only 25 years old. His fastball sits mid-90s and tops out around 99. He also excellently commands a high-whiff splitter and a tight curveball. The most likely scenario is he doesn't take much time to acclimate to the majors and looks like an ace most -- if not all -- of the season.
But it's still a major transition. There's only one time zone in Japan and the starters only go once a week. Factor in uprooting his entire life to move across the globe and it's easy to see how things could go awry for Yamamoto early.
Glasnow has long had top-shelf stuff. From 2019 to present, he has a 3.03 ERA (137 ERA+) and 1.01 WHIP with 12.5 K/9. He's more than a full season removed from Tommy John surgery, so there shouldn't be any concerns there. Of course, the 120 innings he threw last season marked a career high. He debuted in 2016 and is 30 years old. That he hasn't had more of a workload to this point in his career is definitely a red flag.
Walker Buehler is a two-time All-Star who finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2021. He's had the look of ace for much of his career. He's also coming off Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched in the majors since June 10, 2022. We've seen Justin Verlander return from TJ to win a Cy Young the next season, but we've also seen plenty of pitchers struggle or fall injured again.
Bobby Miller was very good last season as a rookie and there's every reason to believe he'll have a solid career. It's always possible he backslides a bit in his sophomore campaign. As for workload, he totaled 138 2/3 innings between the minors and majors in 2023. How much higher will the Dodgers feel comfortable letting him go?
That's four pitchers where it's possible there will be workload concerns -- especially if Yamamoto has trouble going down to four days of rest, which happened last season with Kodai Senga.
Past that, would the Dodgers be ready to thrust Emmet Sheehan into a rotation spot after a somewhat rocky rookie season? Is Gavin Stone ready? Ryan Yabrough is much better suited out of the bullpen. Same with Michael Grove, in all likelihood. What if Yamamoto's transition requires a six-man rotation?
Even if the Dodgers decide to go back to the well with free agent Clayton Kershaw, he's had surgery and is looking at something like an August return.
There is so much talent here, but there isn't a sure thing for a full season anywhere. They could be running out a patchwork rotation in June only to look totally stacked come October.
2025
Things get a lot more solidified for the Dodgers the following season. First off, Buehler will be a free agent after 2024. It'll all depend on how things shake out with so many different players before we know how strongly the Dodgers would even want Buehler back for 2025, but it's on the table and they don't often get outbid.
Yamamoto will have a full season under his belt. I'm on record right now saying he'll be better in 2025 than 2024. The Dodgers are hoping Glasnow ups that career high in workload and then they'll have a better idea of how many innings he could be counted on for 2025. Miller would be entering his third season and the training wheels in terms of innings pitched should be off.
The Dodgers will have also gotten more major-league work from Sheehan and Stone, giving them a better idea where those guys stand.
Ohtani enters the equation, too, but he isn't alone. Both Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will return from Tommy John surgery.
Between Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Miller, Sheehan, Stone, Gonsolin and May, the Dodgers look to have upwards of eight legitimate rotation arms for the 2025 season, depending upon how everything shakes out here in the next 15 or so months.
Obviously, this leaves room for trades to shore up other areas of the ballclub either during or after the 2024 season (Stone and/or Sheehan would make sense here). This is also without even considering any possible deals for '25 with Buehler and/or Kershaw.
There is rightfully a lot of focus on the 2024 Dodgers right now, especially with how much money they just spent in free agency. I strongly believe there will be issues with the rotation for a good portion of 2024. During the course of dealing with those issues, however, the Dodgers will learn a lot about the talent on hand and are prepared to be an absolute pitching juggernaut in 2025.
