New York Yankees ace and reigning American Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole picked up career win No. 150 on Thursday in his team's 6-0 victory over the Cleveland Guardians. Cole reached the milestone thanks to six innings of scoreless pitching in which he allowed only one hit and struck out two against five walks.
Cole becomes the 266th pitcher in major-league history to reach the 150-win mark. He's fourth among active pitchers in wins behind Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw, who have all reached 200 and surpassed 200 wins for their careers.
In this, his age-33 season, Cole has now pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.28 FIP with 62 strikeouts and 21 walks in 58 innings and 11 starts. He's been shy of his usual standards, but that may be because of how his 2024 season has unfolded to date. Cole didn't make his first start of the season until June 19 because of an elbow injury that turned up in the spring. The physical effects of that injury in addition to the compromised routine may have exacted a price. So don't assume those numbers above reflect the onset of decline for Cole. Bear in mind he's not far removed from a dominant 2023 campaign, and this season he still ranks in the 81st percentile when it comes to fastball velocity.
So what about getting to 200 wins? Let's say Cole picks up two more wins during this regular season (he's on pace to do that). That would leave him needing 48 to reach 200. He's also under contract through 2028 with the Yankees, so let's assume he continues pitching for another four full seasons and remains a fixture in the rotation through that age-37 season. He'd need to average 12 wins per season over that span in order to reach 200 before the end of his current contract.
For his career, Cole has averaged 16 wins per 162 team games, and across the first full three seasons of his Yankees tenure – 2021, 2022, and 2023 – he averaged 14.7 wins per season. So there's some room for decline/poor luck/lacking run support built into that baseline. Given that the Yankees verge on being perennial contenders, Cole should continue earning wins at the necessary rate. If injuries or deep decline take hold, then a reappraisal of his chances may be in order. On the other hand, it's not unusual to see great starting pitchers continue being effective into their late 30s and beyond. That is, the end of Cole's current contract doesn't necessarily mean the end of his career.
And what of 300 wins? As you would expect, he probably doesn't have much of a chance. Let's say Cole gets another two wins this season in keeping with current paces. That would mean he'd be going into his age-34 season needing 148 wins to reach 300. Across all of MLB history, just 11 pitchers have won 148 or more games from their age-34 seasons onward, and all of those names pitched until at least age 44. It wouldn't be unprecedented for Cole to do what's required, but it would be an unlikely feat.
For now, though, Cole can appreciate having reached 150 wins and look forward to making good on what seems like a strong shot to earn career win No. 200 – probably in a Yankees uniform.
