Friday was a busy day in the NL West. Or, really, Friday night and early Saturday morning. First, the Los Angeles Dodgers re-upped slugger Teoscar Hernández to a three-year deal worth $66 million. That was one of those obvious moves that was a great fit for the team and a great fit for the player. It took a little longer to get done than I expected, but it got done, and that's all that matters.
Then, in the wee hours of the morning Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks landed the offseason's top free agent pitcher, agreeing to a six-year contract worth $210 million with Corbin Burnes. The deal includes an opt out after 2026. Burnes makes his home in Arizona and his wife gave birth to twins in July. A new contract close to home is a pretty excellent outcome for the right-hander.
This past season the D-backs missed the postseason because they came out on the wrong end of a three-team tie with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. They don't want that to happen again, hence the Burnes signing. The Dodgers are, of course, the defending World Series champs. The NL West is shaping up to be one of the game's most grueling divisions in 2025.
With that in mind, let's take stock of the NL West and where each of the five teams sits roughly halfway through the offseason. We'll go through the five teams in order of FanGraphs' 2025 projections. Sounds good? Good. Let's get to it.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key additions: Michael Conforto, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández (re-signed), Blake Treinen (re-signed)
Key losses: Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Enrique Hernández, Joe Kelly, Daniel Hudson (retired)
Have they gotten better? Yes because Snell is an upgrade over what the Dodgers got out of Buehler (5.38 ERA in 75 1/3 innings) and Flaherty (3.58 ERA in 55 1/3 innings) in 2024. Buehler pitched very well in the postseason, while Flaherty was more hit and miss in October, but Snell is one of the game's best bat-missers and capable of dominating the best lineups when he's on. The Dodgers' approach to rotation-building is to accumulate as many high-end arms as possible and hope three are healthy enough to pitch in the postseason. Snell joins Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani in the starting staff with Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack further down the depth chart. The offense should again be one of the best in baseball, though I don't fully understand the eagerness to move Mookie Betts back to shortstop. Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández confirms Mookie's an infielder moving forward, not a corner outfielder.
What do they still need to do? Sign Roki Sasaki. That's a big one. The Dodgers have long been favored to sign the Japanese right-hander, though that does not mean it's a done deal. Sasaki has reportedly met with several clubs in recent weeks and is at least listening to what everyone has to say. Sasaki will be able to sign once the international signing period opens on Jan. 15 -- given his age (23), he is subject to the international bonus pools, so he will get a minor-league deal worth a few million rather than a Yamamoto contract -- and his 45-day posting window closes on Jan. 23. Beyond Sasaki, the Dodgers still need to re-sign Clayton Kershaw, who's already said he's pitching in 2025, and possibly re-sign the other Hernández (Enrique). Los Angeles could use another high-leverage arm in the bullpen, too. I won't rule them out on Tanner Scott until he signs elsewhere.
San Diego Padres
Key additions: None
Key losses: Kyle Higashioka, Ha-Seong Kim, David Peralta, Martín Pérez, Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Donovan Solano
Have they gotten better? No. The only player the Padres have added to their 40-man roster from outside the organization this offseason is Rule 5 Draft pick Juan Nuñez, who has yet to pitch above Single-A. San Diego has not signed a major league free agent or traded for a 40-man roster player. To be fair, the Padres added Jason Adam and Luis Arraez in in-season trades during the summer and they remain under team control in 2025, but so far, it's been a very quiet offseason for a San Diego team that won 93 games in 2024 and was a win away from the NLCS. For what it's worth, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates their 2025 competitive balance tax payroll at $247.5 million, above the $241 million threshold and well above their $227.8 million CBT payroll in 2024.
What do they still need to do? The Padres need a left fielder, a catcher, a starter given Joe Musgrove's Tommy John surgery, and then another bat. Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth give San Diego the flexibility to put that bat at first base, second base, shortstop, or DH, but they need another bat. The Padres are expected to be in on Roki Sasaki and landing him would change the tenor of their offseason completely. I assume Profar will make his way back to the Padres at some point. He was great for them this past season and he's had the most successful years of his career in San Diego. It's one of those player/team marriages that just works. The Padres still have a long offseason to-do list, and I'd add an extension for free agent-to-be Michael King to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Key additions: Corbin Burnes, Josh Naylor
Key losses: Josh Bell, Randal Grichuk, Joc Pederson, Christian Walker
Have they gotten better? Yes, though losing Walker's all-around play hurts, and the Grichuk/Pederson platoon was sneaky great in 2024. Thanks to those two, the D-backs got a .279/.383/.508 line and 35 home runs from the DH spot this past season. That will be close to impossible to replace. I would not at all be surprised if 27-year-old Naylor out-hits 34-year-old Walker in 2024. Arizona will miss Walker's golden glove at first base, though. The offense has taken a hit this offseason but Burnes is a significant upgrade to the rotation. He's a balance of power guy, someone who can swing a wild-card race or a postseason series by himself, and there are very few players who can do that.
What do they still need to do? I assume trading Jordan Montgomery is now the top priority. He was a trade candidate coming into the offseason given his 2024 performance (6.23 ERA in 117 innings) and owner Ken Kendrick's scathing comments, and now the Burnes signing has bumped Montgomery down to No. 7 on the rotation depth chart behind Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. The D-backs will presumably have to eat some of the $22.5 million they owe Montgomery to facilitate a trade, but they should be able to move him. The demand for pitching always outweighs the supply and his track record prior to 2024 is pretty good. Moving Montgomery and as much of his money as possible is the top priority. Beyond that, Arizona could use another veteran reliever and perhaps another bench bat (Grichuk reunion?).
San Francisco Giants
Key additions: Willy Adames
Key losses: Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Blake Snell
Have they gotten better? Maybe? Possibly? It depends on your opinion of Adames and Snell. The Giants were said to be in the mix for Corbin Burnes, and not only were they unable to pull that off, they watched him go to the division rival. Extending Matt Chapman in-season took care of an important piece of offseason business, and full seasons of healthy Jung Hoo Lee and Robbie Ray will give San Francisco a boost. Otherwise, it feels like the Giants have done some brand name deck chair rearranging this offseason, and will be the same 77-81 win team they've been every year since 2019 except 2021 (they played at a 78-win pace in 2020).
What do they still need to do? You can squint your eyes and see the makings of a good offense as long as Lee stays healthy and Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald build on their successful 2024 seasons. The Giants really could use another starter, though. A frontline guy to pair with Logan Webb would have been ideal, though that's not going to happen now that Burnes is a D-back. Still, the Giants need someone to stabilize the back of the rotation and cut back on the number of openers and bullpen games. Ironically, Jordan Montgomery would be a nice fit for the Giants and Oracle Park, though trading for Arizona's cast-off after they signed Burnes would pour a little salt in the wound.
Colorado Rockies
Key additions: Thairo Estrada, Kyle Farmer, Jacob Stallings (re-signed)
Key losses: Cal Quantrill, Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon (retired)
Have they gotten better? Probably not, not that it will matter. The Rockies lost 103 games in 2023 and 101 games in 2024 -- those are the first two 100-loss seasons in franchise history, if you can believe that -- and there's no reason to think Colorado will contend in 2025. There are some interesting players here (Brenton Doyle, Ryan Feltner, Nolan Jones, Ezequiel Tovar, etc.), but not nearly enough to make the Rockies relevant in 2025, even in the three wild-card era. Sorry, Rockies fans.
What do they still need to do? Bring in a few more arms to help get through 162 games worth of innings. The Rockies can have a hard time signing pitchers because no one wants to pitch in Coors Field, but short-term contract guys like Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, Dillon Tate, Lou Trivino, and Spencer Turnbull would be worth a roll of the dice. Maybe one gives you 50-80 good innings before you flip him for a prospect at the deadline. The Rockies are probably a year away from being a year away, if that.
