The Cleveland Indians, despite some impressive performances on the individual level, have been eliminated from playoff contention for 2015. Now let's take a look back and a look ahead to next season ...
What went right in 2015: In broad terms, the pitching staff thrived, as the Indians ranked second in the AL in ERA and led the junior circuit in FIP. In a related matter, Indians hurlers comfortably paced the AL in strikeouts as well as strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced.
AL Rookie of the Year candidate Francisco Lindor was as brilliant as advertised with the glove and a pleasant surprise with the bat. Jason Kipnis had a strong bounce-back season. Michael Brantley followed up his breakout 2014 with another strong season. Ryan Raburn was a pleasant surprise. In the rotation, reigning AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber suffered some bad luck on batted balls, but he remained dominant on an underlying level. The bullpen was quietly excellent.
The defense was also significantly improved. In 2014, Cleveland was saddled with what was easily the worst team defense in baseball. This season, however, they check in at 10th in all of baseball in Defensive Efficiency, which is the percentage of balls in play that a defense converts into outs. A full season of Lindor at short should make those numbers even better.
GM Chris Antonetti got a strong return when he flipped Brandon Moss to the Cardinals at the deadline in exchange for high-upside right-hander Rob Kaminsky. Antonetti also succeeded in trading away Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn (to do that, though, the team had to take on Chris Johnson’s contract and kick in $10 million).
What went wrong in 2015: The Indians were never at any point in first place, and they were below .500 from April 11 until Sept. 13. A 7-14 mark in April put the Tribe behind early, and then a seven-game losing streak in late July sullied what was otherwise a reasonably good second half. The Indians wound up posting a losing record against every other team in the AL Central.
Offensively, the Indians ranked just 11th in the AL in runs scored. They were solid on the on-base front, but a lack of power (12th in the AL in SLG) drove their troubles scoring runs. On that front, Yan Gomes missed more than a month with a knee sprain and otherwise struggled. Third base was unsettled all year. On the pitching front, Trevor Bauer, while showing flashes of brilliance at times, struggled with his consistency. Carlos Santana put up his worst season at the plate. Team president Mark Shapiro left for the chance to head up the Blue Jays.
Indians MVP: Kipnis. He's logged 631 plate appearances, and he's put up a batting line of .304/.373/.453. By comparison, the average second baseman this season has hit .264/.318/.392.
Indians LVP(s): Swisher and Bourn. As noted above, the Indians traded Swisher and Bourn early in the August waiver period. As further noted, in order to do they had to accept Chris Johnson in return and had to send $10 million to Atlanta in order to defray the costs of Swisher's and Bourn's contracts. On a performance level, Swisher while in Cleveland batted .198/.261/.297. As for Bourn, he batted .246/.313/.294 on the Indians' watch.
Pending free agents: Mike Aviles, Gavin Floyd
2016 payroll commitments: At present, the Indians have roughly $41 million committed in 2016 player salaries, the narrow plurality of which will go to Carlos Santana ($8.25 million). However, the Indians have six players -- Lonnie Chisenhall, Bryan Shaw, Josh Tomlin, Cody Allen, Zach McAllister, and Nick Hagadone -- slated for first-time arbitration. Absent trades or some surprising non-tenders, that’s going to bump up the payroll significantly. Specifically, that cheap and excellent Cleveland bullpen isn’t going to be so cheap anymore.
Biggest offseason decision: Do the Indians try to work around their budget constraints and sign some offensive help on the free agent market?
2016 will be better if … The Indians get better production from the corners, the rotation again stays generally healthy, and Lindor continues to defy expectations with the bat.
2016 will be worse if … The lineup continues to underperform, the bullpen experiences mass regression, Kipnis gets hurt, the front office doesn't seek out offensive improvements over the offseason.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Second place in the AL Central and a wild card berth.