With Wednesday's victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series, the Cleveland Indians advanced to their first World Series since 1997. One of the top questions now, then, is just whom the Indians might prefer to face -- in other words, who are the Indians rooting for in the now-tied National League Championship Series between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers?
This is the postseason, so we all love to break down these things to their kibbles and bits. Before we get to that part, however, let's remember that the Cubs were a far superior team during the regular season. That isn't a slight on the Dodgers, either. Baseball Prospectus tracks a metric called third-order wins -- basically, a projected winning percentage based on a team's underlying statistics and schedule. The Dodgers were one of the best teams in baseball by this measure, checking in at about 96 projected wins. The Cubs? They were the best team in baseball, with an astounding 113 projected victories.
Even if you don't trust third-order wins -- or its elder kin, Pythagorean record, which supports the notion that the Cubs (with 107 "expected" wins) were better than the Dodgers (90) -- you have to face certain realities. Like, the fact that the Cubs scored a half run more per game, or that they allowed a half run fewer per game. You can argue the gap is smaller with a healthy Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill, and that's fair, but it's hard to make a compelling case that the Dodgers are the superior team.
So, let's move on to the nitty gritty. Is there any plausible matchup-related reason the Indians would rather face the Cubs than the Dodgers? Not really.
It's true that during the regular season the Indians were a better-hitting team against right-handed pitching, and that they'd be facing more right-handed starters if the Cubs were to advance. Yet keep in mind that the Cubs aren't fielding a bunch of league-average right-handed starters.
Besides, the opposition's strengths and weaknesses matter, too. In this case, the Dodgers posted the worst OPS against left-handed pitchers in baseball during the regular season, while they ranked sixth against righties. The Cubs? They were second against lefties and ninth against right-handed pitchers. The Indians' ALCS roster features just two lefties -- Ryan Merritt and Andrew Miller -- but a series against the Dodgers should trigger left-handed specialist Kyle Crockett's addition, which in turn means that some careful micro-managing could make it easier to exploit the Dodgers' platoon-heavy lineup.
The best argument for why the Indians might rather face the Cubs has to do with stealing bases. The Indians were perhaps baseball's best thieves during the regular season, and going up against a rotation featuring Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta could lead to a track meet. Conversely, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias -- each of whom is blessed with an exceptional, if controversial pick-off move. The problem with that thinking, of course, is you're still facing the better team, which negates the marginal advantage gained on the basepaths.
You can't even rationalize that the Indians would like to avoid two or more potential Kershaw appearances during a seven-game series, because the Cubs could use Lester in a similar manner -- sure, he isn't Kershaw, but he's one of the best starters in baseball all the same. To think, we haven't even addressed the managers -- or the idea that getting one over on the green Dave Roberts is easier than doing the same against Joe Maddon.
So, no, there isn't a real argument here that the Indians would prefer play the Cubs. If they had their druthers, you can bet they'd rather play the Dodgers. We'll see if they get their wish.
