Going back to spring training, Dallas Keuchel didn't appear to be a must-start option for the Astros' rotation, much less for a Fantasy one. Yet, by late May, Keuchel had become a popular starter in standard mixed leagues. Just as quickly as the lefty gained Fantasy notoriety, he threatened to become an afterthought with a four-game slide to end the first half.
In each of those four starts, Keuchel had allowed at least four earned runs and more than a hit per inning, and he netted four or fewer strikeouts. As Keuchel's ERA has climbed from 2.38 to 3.20, owners for the most part haven't dropped him, but he's now benched in roughly 40 percent of the leagues he had been starting in a month ago.
Much of Keuchel's success has been chalked up to his sinker, which has enabled him to pile up grounders on 63 percent of hit balls and limit opponents to six home runs in 115 1/3 innings. During his recent slump, Keuchel has seen his ground ball rate shrink slightly, but that hasn't really been the source of his troubles.
It's Keuchel's slider that has betrayed him, and it was a large part of his surprising success for much of the season. It's been Keuchel's best swing-and-miss pitch and has helped him to raise his whiff rate from last season's 9.9 percent to 10.9 percent. His whiff and strikeout rates have fallen dramatically over these last four starts, and during the same period, Keuchel has lost some of the vertical movement on his slider -- nearly an inch, according to the PitchFX data on BrooksBaseball.net.
For Keuchel's two most recent starts, he had been dealing with swelling in his left wrist, and his worst start came just over a week after he sustained the injury. Keuchel improved slightly in his final outing before the break, lasting 6 2/3 innings with modest increases in his swinging strike (from three to seven) and strikeout (from one to three) totals.
Given that Keuchel's struggles began before he sustained his wrist injury, health is clearly not the only culprit, but getting rest over the break can only help. His problems stem from location rather than velocity, so perhaps with better health and some mechanical adjustments, he can return to his earlier form. Owners should consider benching Keuchel for Saturday's start at the White Sox, but they certainly shouldn't drop him. He should also be considered a buy-low target who has a chance to bolster your rotation over the coming weeks.
