Already this offseason, there's a growing sentiment that Fantasy mainstay Joey Votto no longer deserves to go in the first round. I'm hoping to nip it in the bud right here.
In Head-to-Head leagues, it's pretty easy. Walks are worth a point each. As this era's preeminent walker, Votto has so much of a head start on everyone else that he'd need a complete collapse in some other area to fall short of first-round numbers. In his age-30 season, I don't see it happening.
In Rotisserie leagues, it's a little more complicated but still pretty obvious when you account for downside. Everybody likes to dream about how good a player could be, but recognizing how bad he could be is as much a part of player evaluation.
Votto is a lock for a .300 batting average and 25-30 homers (OK, so he finished one short in 2013), and as this era's preeminent walker, he'll always deliver in runs scored. Even if his recent dip in RBI continues, which is no sure thing, you can't be disappointed in the numbers he gives you. They will be elite -- assuming good health, of course.
By comparison, Chris Davis hit .245 in the second half this year, so clearly, he still has flaws. While I think he'll hit .260 with 40-45 home runs in 2014 -- which would likely put him ahead of an RBI-deficient Votto in Rotisserie -- he has a much better chance of disappointing than Votto.
Whiffing in the early rounds means certain failure in Fantasy Baseball, so more than anything with those picks, you want safe. That's exactly what Votto will give you, whether he finishes with 80 RBI or 100.