<img alt= closer Jose Valverde blew a ninth-inning lead on Wednesday (but he picked up the win!), which made for his first blown save since September 2, 2010.
Surprising, no? Actually, not really. While Valverde was conspicuously perfect in save opportunities last season, his underlying indicators suggest trouble ahead. Most notably, Valverde has seen his strikeout rate decline for five consecutive seasons, and his walk rate has also increased substantially over mid-career levels.
In fact, look at a statistic called xFIP, which measures what a pitcher's ERA should have been given how he fared in those areas over which he has the most control (e.g., missing bats, exhibiting control, keeping the ball on the ground, or not doing any of those things), then you'll find Valverde's mark for 2011 was a fairly discouraging 4.01. Yes, Valverde's ERA last season was an excellent 2.24, but xFIP is much better at predicting future ERAs than ERA itself.
In a related matter, Valverde has steadily lost velocity on his fastball over the years, which means it's curious that last season he all but abandoned his splitter in favor of his heater. Presumably that's because he started losing command of his once-dominant splitter back in 2010. In any event, that's another data point not in Valverde's favor. He looks everything like a pitcher in decline.
Yes, Valverde will likely horde quite a few saves in 2012 because he's the closer for a very good team (for now, anyway). But he's not an elite, shutdown reliever by any sensible standard, and raw save totals and save percentages have never been sound ways to evaluate closers.
Mostly, though, it's Valverde's collapsing skill set that suggests what happened on opening day might happen a lot more often this season.
Surprising, no? Actually, not really. While Valverde was conspicuously perfect in save opportunities last season, his underlying indicators suggest trouble ahead. Most notably, Valverde has seen his strikeout rate decline for five consecutive seasons, and his walk rate has also increased substantially over mid-career levels.
| Opening Day |
In a related matter, Valverde has steadily lost velocity on his fastball over the years, which means it's curious that last season he all but abandoned his splitter in favor of his heater. Presumably that's because he started losing command of his once-dominant splitter back in 2010. In any event, that's another data point not in Valverde's favor. He looks everything like a pitcher in decline.
Yes, Valverde will likely horde quite a few saves in 2012 because he's the closer for a very good team (for now, anyway). But he's not an elite, shutdown reliever by any sensible standard, and raw save totals and save percentages have never been sound ways to evaluate closers.
Mostly, though, it's Valverde's collapsing skill set that suggests what happened on opening day might happen a lot more often this season.
