The nightmare scenario for the New York Yankees has played out. Juan Soto is leaving for the New York Mets, having agreed to a massive 15-year contract worth $765 million on Sunday. Soto isn't just leaving the Yankees. He's leaving to join a team in their city.
There is no sugarcoating it: Soto leaving is a devastating blow to the Yankees, a team that had a very top-heavy offense last season and was going to have to address holes up and down the roster even if they were able to re-sign the superstar. They need a first baseman, either a second or third baseman, bullpen help, maybe another starter, and now at least one more outfielder. Possibly two.
Replacing Soto in the aggregate -- signing 3-4 players with the money they were going to give Soto -- is a fine idea that doesn't work all that neatly in real life. The Yankees have tried this before. During the 2013-14 offseason, they signed Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann after losing Robinson Canó in free agency. They then won one fewer game in 2014 than 2013.
Also, they don't have all that money to spend. The Yankees offered Soto 16 years and $760 million, per the New York Post. They don't have $760 million to play with now. They have $47.5 million in 2025, or the $760 million spread across the 16 years. Willy Adames ($26 million per year) and Luis Severino ($22.3 million per year) just signed deals that add up to $48.3 million per year, for reference. Fifty million dollars per year is a large figure, but it doesn't buy you that much in free agency these days.
But beyond the roster and on-field considerations, the Yankees just lost Juan Soto. They had him, and the Mets signed him away. What is supposed to be the sport's marquee franchise was outbid for one of the game's biggest stars. Such a thing was unthinkable not that long ago. When the Yankees wanted CC Sabathia, they got him. When they wanted Gerrit Cole, they got him too.
The Yankees are becoming less and less like the Yankees, and not just because of Soto. They've been chipping away at the franchise's status for a few years. They've stopped setting payroll records (they let the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers set the mark, then catch up), ignored prime free agents like Bryce Harper (they never made Harper an offer), and struggled to develop homegrown players (particularly hitters).
The Yankees have gradually whittled away at their image and have gone from baseball's biggest and most popular franchise to just a regular old big-market team. They spend a lot of money, sure, and I'm certain they'll sign a few free agents in response to letting Soto walk, but the Yankees don't dominate baseball anymore. They're very good, infrequently elite, and regularly a runner-up.
Losing Soto makes it more likely the Cole/Aaron Judge era will pass without a World Series title. It makes them less attractive to future free agents because you don't get to play with Juan Soto. You get to play with Judge and he's great, but he turns 33 in April, and is closer to the end of his tenure as an elite player than the beginning. Soto is just now entering what should be his peak.
Soto is one of the two or three best hitters in the world and that makes him irreplaceable. The Yankees will sign other players and talk about building a more balanced team, but that won't replace Soto. They valued him at 16 years and $760 million. They obviously know he's a franchise player. Now he's the Mets' franchise player.
At the owners' meetings in November, Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner said "we've got the ability to sign any player we want to sign," and he should be taken at his word. The Yankees wanted Soto -- their offer reflects that -- but he didn't want them, and found the Mets more desirable. For a franchise with a brand built on winning and star players, that is damning. Their own star free agent rejected them.
The Yankees will pivot and acquire a few players, win a bunch of games in 2025, and maybe even make noise in the postseason. It will be (much) harder without Soto though, and the fact is that losing Soto will hang over everything they do this offseason and moving forward. They had him, they wanted to keep him, and couldn't. The Yankees will rebound, but it'll be hard to fully recover.
