A great era of Kansas City Royals baseball came to an end in 2017.
The core that led the team to the 2014 AL pennant and the 2015 World Series championship was broken up through free agency this winter, forcing GM Dayton Moore to enter a rebuild. Moore did all he could to make one last run with that core last season, including adding players like Trevor Cahill, Melky Cabrera, and Ryan Buchter at the deadline, but it didn't work. They fell short and missed the postseason.
This offseason the Royals lost Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer to free agency, and at some point they will lose Mike Moustakas as well. Moustakas remains unsigned and Moore has all but ruled out re-signing him.
It doesn't appear the Royals will be pursuing Mike Moustakas or any other costly free-agent, even with Hoz signing elsewhere. Dayton Moore said, “That period of time, that phase of who we are, is over. We need to move on.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) February 18, 2018
What's left is a bare bones roster and a farm system Baseball America ranks as second worst in baseball. A case can be made no team is worse off long-term than the Royals. The MLB roster isn't very good and the farm system is lacking impact players. The Royals didn't have a single prospect on Baseball America's or MLB.com's top 100 prospects list.
The good news: Moore has shown he can take a bad team and built it into a championship club, and the Royals will have three extra picks in the 2018 draft thanks to losing Cain, Hosmer, and (eventually) Moustakas. Kansas City won't contend in 2018. Instead, the focus this year will be building the foundation of the next contending Royals team. Let's preview the club's upcoming season.
The vitals
- 2017 record: 80-82 (minus-89 run differential)
- 2018 depth chart: Click here.
- 2018 schedule: Click here.
Where does Mondesi fit in?
For whatever reason, the Royals re-signed shortstop Alcides Escobar to a low cost one-year contract even though Escobar has been one of the worst players in baseball the last few seasons. Yes, he's a good enough defender, but the Royals already have a very good shortstop prospect in Adalberto Mondesi, who doesn't have a clear path to playing time now.
Mondesi, who is still only 22, has mostly flopped at the MLB level so far, hitting .181/.226/.271 (33 OPS+) in 209 plate appearances spread across the last two seasons. He did play well in Triple-A last season though, authoring .305/.340/.539 batting line 13 doubles and 21 steals in 85 games. Mondesi is also a great athlete and former top prospect. You know, pretty much exactly the kind of player a rebuilding team makes room for in the lineup.
Instead, Mondesi is stuck behind Escobar at short and late-bloomer Whit Merrifield at second base. For what it's worth, the team has considered using Mondesi at second full-time and turning Merrifield into a super utility guy.
With Esky back, Raul Mondesi must be headed to Triple-A, right? Not so fast. He still could be your second baseman, Ned Yost says, which means Whit Merrifield could be Mr. Super Utility Man in 2018. https://t.co/N4VaG1MJSK pic.twitter.com/HcPPCOJB57
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) February 15, 2018
For now Mondesi doesn't have an obvious spot in the lineup, and he's probably at the point of his career where he needs to face big-league pitching to get better. He's done all he needs to do in Triple-A. Mondesi needs the challenge of facing MLB caliber pitchers, and right now, he's on the outside of the roster looking in. I suspect the team will find a way to get him into the lineup regularly this year when it's all said and done.
Who can be traded for prospects?
The Royals started the process of trading veterans for prospects over the winter. Buchter, Brandon Moss, Scott Alexander, and Joakim Soria were dealt away in two separate trades and it stands to reason Moore will look to continue unloading veterans. Finding takers for Alex Gordon ($44 million) and Ian Kennedy ($49 million) and their remaining contracts will take a minor miracle. Those are two veterans the Royals might be stuck with.
Fortunately, Moore does still have some quality trade chips, namely Merrifield and lefty Danny Duffy. Duffy signed a long-term contract last year and has made it clear he wants to remain with the Royals the rest of his career ...
Bury me a Royal.
— Danny Duffy (@duffkc41) December 13, 2017
... but ultimately, it's not be up to him. Moore has to be open to anything at this point and that includes trading Duffy if he gets a good offer. That said, trading a 29-year-old southpaw with a 3.47 ERA (122 ERA+) over the last four seasons will require a huge return. Just don't be surprised if a team (cough ... Yankees ... cough) swoops in with a big offer at some point.
Beyond Merrifield and Duffy, the Royals shouldn't have trouble finding takers for Jason Hammel or Kelvin Herrera at the trade deadline. Both are impending free agents Kansas City is unlikely to re-sign after the season. Relievers Brandon Maurer and Wily Peralta will undoubtedly generate interest at the trade deadline as long as they have good seasons. Not even great seasons. Good is enough to do it.
One player I do not expect to be available as part of the rebuild: Salvador Perez. You could argue the Royals should make him available, but I get the sense Perez is a Royal for life. They'll keep him and build around him, and hey, that's not a bad idea. Perez is still only 27 and quality catchers are hard to find. It's not unreasonable to suggest he'll still be in his prime when the team is ready to contend again.
Will they swoop in to sign a bargain free agent?
Moore has ruled out signing a pricey free agent, but would the Royals dip their toes in the free-agent pool to sign a low-cost player? Logan Morrison stood out as potential target before signing with the Twins. The Royals have an opening at first base in the wake of Hosmer leaving, and Morrison spent part of his childhood in Kansas City. He seemed like a potential fit. Lucas Duda could work just as well, however.
Point is, there are still plenty of good free agents on the market, and the Royals have some playing time to offer. Signing Duda or Jon Jay or a similar free agent to a cheap one-year contract would help the team be respectable this year, and also potentially give them a trade chip at the deadline. The slow-moving free-agent market is a chance for an opportunistic rebuilding team to essentially buy a trade chip, and I see no reason the Royals shouldn't be that team.
Probable lineup
The 2018 lineup is going to look nothing like the 2017 lineup. That much is for sure. The Royals have already lost their 2017 leaders in games started as the No. 3 hitter (Cain) and No. 4 hitter (Hosmer), and it's only a matter of time until they lose their leader in starts as the No. 6 hitter (Moustakas). Here is manager Ned Yost's projected Opening Day lineup:
- 2B Whit Merrifield
- RF Jorge Bonifacio
- LF Alex Gordon
- C Salvador Perez
- DH Jorge Soler
- 3B Cheslor Cuthbert
- 1B Hunter Dozier
- CF Paulo Orlando
- SS Alcides Escobar
Bench: C Drew Butera, IF Ryan Goins, OF Billy Burns
Egads. Like I said, there's room for someone like Duda in that lineup. It shouldn't be a surprise that both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Royals to score the fewest runs in the American League in 2018. Now watch Bonifacio hit 45 homers and the Royals score 850 runs.
Probable rotation
The Royals do still have a respectable rotation, so that's good. Here is Yost's projected started five:
- LHP Danny Duffy
- RHP Ian Kennedy
- RHP Jason Hammel
- RHP Jake Junis
- RHP Nate Karns
Depth options include Jesse Hahn, Eric Skoglund, and Miguel Almonte. At the very least, I have to think Hammel will be traded before the deadline as long as he stays healthy. Rental arms are always in demand.
Probable bullpen
The days of the super bullpen that contributed to greatly to the team's success from 2014-15 are long gone. Wade Davis is gone, Greg Holland is gone, Luke Hochevar is gone, and chances are Herrera will be gone at some point this summer as well. Here is the team's projected bullpen.
Closer: RHP Kelvin Herrera
Setup: RHP Brandon Maurer
Middle: LHP Brian Flynn, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Kevin McCarthy, RHP Wily Peralta, RHP Burch Smith
Long: RHP Jesse Hahn
Smith is something of a sleeper. He's not young -- he'll turn 28 shortly after Opening Day -- and he returned from Tommy John surgery just last year, but he came back looking very good. The Royals grabbed him in December's Rule 5 Draft. Here's what Baseball America said in their Rule 5 Draft preview:
Smith missed all of 2015 and 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery but came back looking like the player who was once an intriguing prospect. Both at the end of the season at Triple-A Durham and in the Arizona Fall League, Smith sat 94-96 mph with his fastball, flashed a knee-buckling 74-76 mph curveball and showed a swing-and-miss 79-81 mph changeup. Though he's 27 and has had serious arm health issues, Smith is major league ready and has the stuff to help a team as a back-end starter or move to the bullpen.
Rebuilding exclusively through the draft is impossible. Teams need to find talent through every available avenue to build a contender, and that includes the Rule 5 Draft. Smith has a chance to become a long-term contributor for the Royals as long as he continues to show that sort of stuff going forward.
