What large and burly presence has just barged into the parlor? That, friends, is stretch-drive baseball, the annual phenomenon that brings us final clarity before the postseason begins. Each season occasions a mid- to late-September thicket of varying density, and this year's edition may be described as "moderately complicated." We'll take it.
When it comes to the sorting out of Major League Baseball's 12 playoff berths, the remaining regular-season schedule shall of course have final say. Sadly we don't have tiebreaker games anymore, so we'll grant full focus to the remaining games and series that will determine the playoff field for 2024. Speaking of which, it's now time for a brief walking tour of the biggest games and series left on the docket – i.e., those games and series that will tell us who gets an October shot at the belt and the title.
We'll also be noting where each season series stands between the two clashing teams of note. That's because MLB, thanks to the expanded postseason and already crowded regular-season calendar, no longer has tiebreaker games. That means any ties for playoff berths, division titles, and seeding are determined by various regular-season outcomes. Almost all of those ties are settled by head-to-head records during the regular season, and that's why the season series tally matters so much.
Now let us proceed in chronological order, just like the phone book.
Sept. 16-18: Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Season series: Phillies up 3-0
The Brewers and Phillies are each heavy favorites to clinch their respective divisions, which means this particular series may have seeding implications. To remind you of how this goes, the top two seeds in each league — i.e., the two division winners with the best records – are rewarded with a first-round bye past the Wild Card Series and into the Division Series. The Braves' incessant mewling from a year ago (and into this year) notwithstanding, that's a big advantage. Right now, the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are narrowly pacing that race, but the Brewers can change the outlook of things if they sweep or even win this ongoing series against Philly.
Sept. 20-22: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Season series: Twins up 2-1
The Twins right now are narrowly in possession of the third and final wild-card spot in the American League. At this writing, the Detroit Tigers are actually a more pressing threat to the Twins, but those two AL Central rivals won't meet again this season. That leaves us with the Red Sox series when it comes to the most direct "last playoff spot" implications. Right now, the Red Sox trail the Twins by 4 1/2 games and the Tigers and Mariners by two games. Given the late hour and deficit involved, Boston probably needs a sweep of the Twins in this one.
Sept. 23-25: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Season series: Mariners up 6-4
The Mariners once led the AL West by 10 games, but their backsliding in tandem with the Astros' surge has Houston presently up by 4 1/2 games. This series probably presents the M's with their last best chance to make a push for the postseason. The challenge will be whittling the Houston lead down to within range of a sweep, while the Astros will certainly be angling to bury Seattle by then.
Sept. 24-26: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Season series: Orioles up 6-4
The stakes will indeed be high between these two AL East rivals. Yes, the runner-up in the division will almost certainly snare a wild-card berth, but the AL East winner will almost certainly enjoy one of those two first-round byes available to AL division winners. That, to repeat, is a huge competitive advantage in the playoffs. At this writing, the Yankees hold a three-game lead over Baltimore for the flag. In related matters, the O's are below .500 since July 1.
Sept. 24-26: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Season series: Tied 5-5
The most important one of all? You can credibly argue just that. That's because this series may decide which team snags the third and final NL wild-card berth. The Mets and Braves are tied in the race for that spot, and as we've seen so often in recent years even back-end wild-card teams have a real shot at winning the pennant and even the World Series. On top of all that, the season series between these two teams is tied at 5-5. That means that the winner of this series would go to the playoffs should the race for the third wild-card berth end in tie. Add a dusting of rivalry spice to this one, and it's even more tantalizing. Might Mets ace Kodai Senga return from injury in time to work a few critical innings in Atlanta? For the Braves, maybe Ozzie Albies gets back and mans the keystone against the Mets? It's possible all else will be settled by the time this one begins, which means all eyes could be on the Mets and Braves.
Sept. 24-26: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Season series: Padres have clinched season series
The hobbled Dodgers haven't yet been able to put a bow on the division – let alone secure a first-round bye – and the Padres right now find themselves within striking distance. Priority No. 1 for San Diego is locking up a postseason berth regardless of method and manner, but the idea of winning the National League West for the first time since 2006 is obviously an alluring one. The Padres trail the Dodgers by 3 1/2 games in the NL West, which is a notable deficit this late in the season. These three head-to-head affairs, however, put everything in play. As well, since the Pads have already locked up the season series against L.A. – they're 7-3 against the Dodgers this year – they'll take the division if the clubs end up tied in the standings.
Sept. 27-29: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Season series: Tied 5-5
Speaking of the Padres, they and the D-backs are still trying to secure the top two wild-card spots. That means trying not to slip into the third slot and, more critically, trying not to fall out of playoff position altogether. It also means sorting out wild-card seeding. This series may be a duel for the top wild-card spot in the NL and thus a duel to determine which wild-card team gets to host an opening-round series. On top of all that, this could also be a preview of that very opening-round series. That's because the top two wild cards in each league play each other, while the third wild card visits the division winner that didn't earn a bye. The Diamondbacks right now have just a two-game cushion between themselves and the Mets and Braves, so pondering playoff seeding qualifies as premature right now from the Arizona standpoint. Whatever the specifics, this series at Chase Field is likely to be a critical one for one reason or another.
