Wednesday brings us more playoff action with the NLCS shifting across the country to Queens. The Mets haven't hosted an NLCS game since taking down the Cubs in Game 2, 2015. Daniel Murphy homered because, well, that's what he did that series. Expect Citi Field in 2024 to be hoppin'. The last time these fans saw a home game, Francisco Lindor's grand slam happened.
It'll be fun, that's for sure, and a little gambling can be done as well ...
Dodgers at Mets, 8:08 p.m. ET
RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Luis Severino
Severino had a 3.91 ERA this season. He was worse in the second half than the first, but pitched to a 2.96 ERA at home. In his two playoff starts, he's been shaky (4.50 ERA), but both were on the road. Perhaps returning home helps. He was crushed by the Dodgers on June 2, 2023, but hasn't seen them since.
Buehler had a terrible season, on the whole, but got a little better toward the end (3.31 ERA in his last three starts). His line in the playoff start (NLDS Game 3) looks brutal, but all the damage was confined to one inning and he had some pretty bad luck before the home run he gave up (which was obviously his fault). The Mets haven't seen him this year.
The Dodgers have a talented bullpen, but it can also be exploited and we saw a little of that in Game 2.
Speaking of which, this series has already shown how capable both offenses can be. The Dodgers are averaging 5.14 runs per game in the playoffs after averaging 5.2 in the regular season. The Mets are averaging five runs a game after 4.52 in the second half.
The play: Over 7.5 runs (-115)
You can pretty easily argue this will be a relatively low-scoring game. You don't even have to squint your way there. See above to find the info on Severino at home and how Buehler might well have turned a corner. I just can't shake the feeling that I trust these offenses far more than I trust the starting pitchers, though, and it isn't just that. The bullpens have been hit on occasion as well, notably the Mets'. I like to visualize possible final scores when playing an over and a 5-3 final score hits it. That doesn't even sound high-scoring for these two teams. We'll get there again, just like Games 1 and 2.
The play: Shohei Ohtani over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+115)
How much have you heard about how Ohtani can't hit unless there are runners on base these last few days? It's an anomaly that doesn't really have any predictive value, really. I also can't shake the feeling that it's bound to turn very soon. Every big-time athlete is driven internally by a desire to show everyone how awesome they are. He's also so talented that it seems like things will start evening out very soon. Last time he was in Citi Field, he was 2 for 5 with a home run (on May 29). He's 3 for 6 with a home run and double in his career against Severino.
I think he's gonna lead the game off with a home run. If he does, we hit this prop right away.
