We're on the cusp of October and that's easily the most fun time of the year as a sports fan (no, sorry, you don't get to argue with me here). A large part of that equation would be the Major League Baseball playoffs, culminating with the Fall Classic. Who might win the World Series this season? Well, we've been able to eliminate more than half the league from that discussion thanks to a long regular season.
With just three days left in the regular season, however, there's some jockeying to be done with the seedings and we even have a few races up for grabs.
Here's what is left to be decided:
- The AL Central champion. The White Sox have the tiebreaker and are one game behind the Guardians. Whichever team wins the division will get the two seed and a bye. The team that loses will be the six seed.
- The AL West champion. The Astros have the tiebreaker and are tied with the Rangers.
- The NL wild-card seeds. The Cubs, Phillies and Padres could end up in any order.
With that in mind, we'll once again run through some predictions that are subject to change based upon what we see on the field, in addition to any forthcoming injuries.
Predicting the playoff field
Given the tiebreaker and the fact that they now get three games at home against the Rockies, I'm taking the White Sox in the AL Central. In the West, I'll go with the Astros, mostly just because they have the tiebreaker and also the A's aren't exactly steep competition:
American League seed projections
1. Rays
2. White Sox
3. Astros
4. Yankees
5. Red Sox
6. Guardians
Over on the National League side, the Cubs have the tiebreaker over both the Phillies and Padres, so we'll just stick them in the four spot. Plus, my expectation is that the Rays (facing the Phillies this weekend) and Diamondbacks (facing the Padres) will be playing harder than the Red Sox against the Cubs. The rationale there is that the Red Sox are gearing up to play in the Wild Card Series starting on Tuesday, while the Rays are waiting around until the ALDS and would like to remain sharp through the regular season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks would love nothing more than to hurt the Padres. I'll go with the Padres for the five seed, but this is a really tough call.
This gives us the NL field of six:
National League seed projections
1. Brewers
2. Dodgers
3. Braves
4. Cubs
5. Padres
6. Phillies
Predicting the playoffs
Wild Card Series
As a reminder, the Wild Card Series is a three-game series with all three in the same venue, hosted by the better seed.
- Red Sox over Yankees
- Guardians over Astros
The AL East battle is a toss-up, but since the Yankees won't have a 100% Aaron Judge (if they have him at all), we'll swing this one Boston's way. In the other matchup, I'm refusing to acknowledge any chance for an AL West team.
- Cubs over Padres
- Braves over Phillies
The Cubs and Padres series will be a hotly contested matchup that provides us with plenty of fun. The Cubs have a well-rounded batting order that can beat you from any spot and their pitching has very quietly started to round into shape. In the other series, the Braves finally get their revenge for 2022 and 2023 as the Phillies have sort of been limping to the finish.
Divisional Series
Next up is the divisional round, a best-of-five. We don't reseed. It's the No. 1 seed against the 4/5 winner and then the No. 2 against the 3/6 winner.
- Rays over Red Sox
- White Sox over Guardians
The first time I did this exercise, I had the Yankees winning the AL. Last week, I went with the Red Sox. As a matter of principle, this time around I'm going Rays. This wasn't an accident. I'm totally undecided between the three teams, but I feel very strongly that the AL champion is coming from the AL East. The Central battle will be all kinds of fun, but I'll go with the newbies here.
- Brewers over Cubs
- Dodgers over Braves
The Brewers continue to own the Cubs and I don't see a need to elaborate here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves can knock the Dodgers off, but we'll go with an NLCS rematch.
Championship Series
Now onto the LCS!
- Rays over White Sox
Many people picked both teams to finish in last place, making this a really fun bout. The White Sox just don't have their starting pitching in position to pull this one off, not just yet.
- Brewers over Dodgers
I decided weeks ago that I'm picking the Brewers until they lose. Yes, I still think it was a big mistake to "let" the Dodgers win the Tarik Skubal bidding and wish they would've somehow pulled it off while still holding onto Logan Henderson. It didn't happen and it hurt their chances to topple the two-time defending champs. That doesn't mean it is impossible. These Brewers feel feistier than last year and maybe a second chance is the charm here.
World Series
- Brewers over Rays
As previously noted: The number of MLB franchises to have never won a World Series shrinks to four as the Brewers take their first-ever title in my bracket. Also, it would be interesting to see all the narratives if this World Series were to happen, given the small-market status of both the upcoming CBA fight to center around a salary cap (this wouldn't prove anything, much like a Dodgers-Yankees World Series wouldn't prove anything; I'm just saying there would be plenty of discussion).
