In about two weeks' time, pitchers and catchers will officially report for spring training. Although most of the attention on the free-agent market in recent weeks has concerned Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it bears noting there are myriad starting pitchers available who could (and likely will) slot into some team's rotation between now and opening day.
To help pass time, we decided to present a snapshot of the current market by analyzing and categorizing some of the free-agent starters. Let's get to it.
The best available
There are a few factors working against Dallas Keuchel. He's a low-spin, low-velocity pitcher at a time when revolutions-per-minute and miles-per-hour are overvalued. Additionally, he's not the standard workhorse: He's started more than 30 games in a season just twice. Still, Keuchel has posted an ERA+ of 105 or better in four of the last five seasons, and has never had his strikeout-to-walk ratio dip below 2.60. He isn't an ace; he is an above-average starter, however.
Consistently inconsistent
For as volatile as Gio Gonzalez feels start-to-start -- heck, inning-to-inning -- his seasonal numbers tend to fall into neat ranges. He's started at least 30 times in eight of the last nine seasons, and has had his ERA+ end up between 90 and 110 in four of the past six (with another checking in at 113). Gonzalez's command makes him an attrition risk, but his ability to take the ball every turn and post average or better results should land him a guaranteed rotation spot.
Famous names
Did you realize that Clay Buchholz posted a 2.01 ERA in 16 starts with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season? He won't do that again in 2019, but he deserves the chance to prove there's more left in the tank. Buchholz tallied just 41 starts between 2015-17, and shouldn't be viewed as a 30-start option. He should, nonetheless, be viewed as a worthwhile back-end gamble who could yield dividends if he's able to stay somewhat hearty and hale.
Jeremy Hellickson provided the Washington Nationals with 91 innings of 123 ERA+ ball in 2018. He even notched the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. Who knew? Hellickson's fate hinges on his home-run rate -- as it goes, so too does he. We're guessing he'll again be going to camp after it's started.
In case of emergency
Split Brett Anderson's season into two and you'll see that from July onward he made 13 starts, during which he posted a 3.74 ERA and recorded more than five strikeouts per walk. Baseball doesn't work that way, of course. You can't just get rid of the bad. But Anderson likely did enough to merit another look at the back of someone's rotation. The key for him, as always, is staying right. He's made 95 appearances in the last six seasons -- 31 of which came in 2015.
We're rooting for Edwin Jackson to land with his 14th big-league team, thus breaking Octavio Dotel's record. We think it'll happen, but it may require a stint in the minors. Despite a 125 ERA+ and his highest average fastball velocity since 2015, Jackson continued to struggle to miss bats and finished the season with a sub-two strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's by all accounts a wonderful human being; he's just probably not going to be anyone's Plan A or B entering the season.
Timing is everything. Unfortunately for Ervin Santana, he hasn't had good timing. He made 33 starts in 2017, tossing five complete games and finishing seventh in Cy Young Award voting. That would've been an ideal time to hit the open market. Instead, Santana had his option declined this winter -- after a season that saw him appear just five times and post poor peripherals. His fastball velocity was down four full ticks from his 2017 average. Maybe a winter of rest and rehab will help Santana. But he's not to be trusted at this point.
Josh Tomlin illustrates the differences between command and control. He throws a ton of strikes, resulting in absurd strikeout-to-walk ratios -- for his career he's at 4.60. Yet too often he gets sloppy within the zone with substandard stuff, leading to a lot of home runs -- about one every three innings last season, and nearly two per nine for his career. He's almost certain to settle for a non-roster deal.
Any country for old men?
Over the last two seasons, Doug Fister has made 30 appearances and compiled a 99 ERA+ and 2.16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No one seems to care. Fister has been underrated throughout his career, and that's unlikely to change as he enters his age-35 season.
James Shields has developed reputations for eating innings and helping young pitchers. He was an average starter across 200 frames last season, per ERA+ -- just don't expect anyone to value him that way. Shields could be at the end of the line.
We're including Bartolo Colon because the internet loves him. We'll note that he hasn't been an effective starter in either of the last two seasons, and that he's probably about done as a big-league starter -- albeit not by choice.
