So Angels slugger and former Cardinals superstar Albert Pujols has now reached the 600-homer barrier. That makes him the ninth player in MLB history to get there.
Let's get greedy, though. Only Barry Bonds (762), Hank Aaron (755) and Babe Ruth (714) have ever gotten to 700. Can Pujols join them?
Pujols' contract certainly gives him enough time. Here are his remaining salaries per season:
- 2018: $27 million
- 2019: $28 million
- 2020: $29 million
- 2021: $30 million
The Angels don't have an influx of 1B/DH types breathing down his neck to steal playing time, either. It's a fair bet to see Pujols remaining a regular DH at least through 2019 and maybe even 2020.
Pujols hit 40 homers two years ago and 31 last year. In 2016, he homered once every 4.9 games. Let's modestly jump that up to once every 6.5 games through 2019 with an average of 145 games played, given that he's starting to push 40 years old. That gives him 45 home runs total in 2018-19.
So at this rate, Pujols would need to combine for 55 home runs the rest of this season (he could have 25 or so left, reasonably speaking) and then in 2020-21.
A breakdown to get to 700 could look like this.
- Rest of 2017: 25
- 2018: 25
- 2019: 20
- 2020: 17
- 2021: 13
That gets him to exactly 700.
This isn't ridiculous, but it's far from a sure thing. We have to keep in mind the aging curve, the problems he's had with his lower body, specifically his feet and that at some point, the Angels will surely find a better option to DH.
Plugging Pujols' numbers into Bill James' "favorite toy" that uses historical data without knowing the particular player or contract status, it's estimated that Pujols has a 34 percent chance to reach 700 homers and the most likely number to end on would be 683.
One final method is to stop crunching numbers and just ponder if we think Pujols has 100 more homers in him. He combined for 99 homers from 2014-16. He turns 38 next January and, again, has dealt with the lower body injuries. He's still very powerful, but it's a tall order to expect 100 more.
I do think he gets north of 650 and gets within striking distance of 700. He might even top 700, but it doesn't seem like the most likely path. I'll go a little bit past the favorite toy estimation and say Pujols has a 40 percent chance of reaching 700.
