Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
Thanks to Friday night's loss to the Rockies (COL 7, SD 4), the San Diego Padres have officially been eliminated from postseason contention. Under new GM A.J. Preller the Padres were, by far, the most aggressive team last offseason. It seemed like they completed a blockbuster trade every other week. The plan didn't work. Now Preller & Co. have to pick up the pieces.
What went right in 2015: The offense improved substantially -- the team has averaged 4.09 runs per game in 2015 after averaging 3.30 runs per game in 2014 -- which was the main focus of their offseason plan. Justin Upton (26 home runs) became the first Padres player to hit 25 or more homers since Chase Headley hit 31 in 2012, and the first Padres outfielder to hit 25-plus homers since Bubba Trammell hit 25 in 2001.
Yangervis Solarte (109 ERA+) emerged as a valuable and flexible piece -- he has played every infield position other than shortstop this season -- and Matt Kemp bounced back following a dreadful first half. He hit .250/.291/.382 (89 OPS+) with eight home runs in the first half and has hit .285/.343/.533 (135 OPS+) with 14 home runs since the All-Star break. That's the Matt Kemp we're all used to seeing.
On the pitching side, Tyson Ross put together another strong season (116 ERA+) and Brandon Maurer (124 ERA+) emerged as a force out of the bullpen. The back-end duo of Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit were more than reliable in the late innings as well.
What went wrong in 2015: We have to start with the pitching, specifically the rotation. Despite Ross' best efforts and the spacious Petco Park, San Diego's rotation has a 4.01 ERA in 2015. When adjusted for ballpark, that ranks 19th out of the 30 clubs (108 ERA-). Furthermore, the pitching staff has a whole has a 1.06 HR/9, ranking 18th in baseball. That's their highest rate since having a 1.08 HR/9 in 2006.
Big-money free-agent signing James Shields has a 3.80 ERA (97 ERA+) and a 1.4 HR/9. Andrew Cashner has a 4.25 ERA (87 ERA+) with 1.0 HR/9. Ian Kennedy? He's pitched better of late, but still has a 4.29 ERA (86 ERA+) with 1.7 HR/9 overall this season. The bullpen, which is usually the Padres trademark, was weak aside from Kimbrel, Benoit and Maurer. Simply put, the pitching did not perform as expected. Not close, really.
On the position-player side, the Padres were unable to come up with a shortstop -- four different players started a game at short this season, including Jedd Gyorko and Will Middlebrooks -- and trade pickup Wil Myers was limited to only 83 games due to ongoing wrist problems. He has hit well when healthy, however (121 OPS+).
And then there's the defense. The Padres rank 21st in baseball with a 0.699 Defensive Efficiency this season, which means they've converted only 69.9 percent of batted balls into outs. MLB players are hitting .149 on fly balls this season. Against the Padres it's .163. Those big gaps and the lack of a true center fielder were a bad combination.
Padres MVP: Justin Upton. Pretty easy call. He leads the team in home runs (26), OPS+ (126) and WAR (4.6). Ross is a distant second at 3.0 WAR. No one else on the roster is over 2.5 WAR.
Padres LVP: There's no obvious choice here. Middlebrooks is dead last among Padres position players with negative-1.1 WAR despite playing only 83 games. He's spent a chunk of the season in Triple-A. Alexi Amarista is another candidate -- he has a 59 OPS+ and negative-0.4 WAR in 107 games. It's not his fault he was miscast as the starting shortstop to start the season, however. I'll defer to WAR and go with Middlebrooks.
Pending free agents: Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson, Joaquin Benoit ($8-million club option), Clint Barmes ($2-million club option)
2016 payroll commitments: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Padres already have $75.35 million committed to 2016 payroll, with significant arbitration raises due to Ross, Cashner, Myers and Derek Norris. Others like Yonder Alonso, Cory Luebke and Middlebrooks are non-tender candidates. San Diego started this season with a franchise-record $108.4-million payroll. Preller figures to have some cash to spend.
Biggest offseason decision: To sell, or simply retool? Preller could either tear it all down -- Shields, Cashner, Ross, Norris and Kimbrel all have good-to-great trade value -- or simply try to patch the holes in his roster and go for it again in 2016, while guys like Shields, Kemp and Kimbrel are in their primes.
I could see the argument for both sides. Losing Upton is a huge blow, but healthy Myers will replace some of that production, plus it gives the team the opportunity to find a real center fielder (could that be Melvin Upton Jr., who has a 106 OPS+?). They had too many square pegs jammed into round holes to start the season. Finding a shortstop and rebuilding pitching depth will be a priority one way or the other.
Preller's biggest offseason decision will be determining whether to go for it again next year, or take a step back and try to retool. He was too aggressive last offseason for me to think he'll begin a full-blown rebuild. Also, Preller has to hire a new manager to replace interim Pat Murphy, which is a big deal.
2016 will be better if ... the pitching performs as expected. That was the big letdown this season. The offense was solid -- full, productive seasons from Kemp and Myers would help -- and the defense could be improved with a bonafide center fielder and shortstop. Guys like Shields, Cashner and Kennedy were a letdown. All three fell short of preseason expectations. We're used to the Padres being a pitching-first team. That wasn't the case this year. The offense is improved this year, and things will be better in 2016 if the pitching catches up.
2016 will be worse if ... Kemp has another slow start, Myers battles injury again and Gyorko continues to stall out. Justin Upton won't be around to pick up the slack, and it's entirely possible Shields won't bounce back given his age and all those innings on his arm. San Diego is losing some key free agents, especially Upton. If those guys aren't replaced adequately, 2016 will not be pretty.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: Winning the NL West is going to be very tough with the powerhouse Dodgers only getting more powerhouse-y. My guess is Preller strikes a balance between rebuilding and going for it -- I could see him trading Kimbrel to add prospects and free up cash -- which is only good enough to get San Diego into third place in the division and on the margins of the wild-card race.
