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The five-year stretch of NL East titles that included two pennants and one World Series championship seems in the distant past for the Philadelphia Phillies. They went 81-81 in 2012 and haven’t won more than 73 games since.
They did, however, leap forward with an eight-win improvement in 2016, rebounding from a 99-loss season.
Can things spin forward again, getting the Phillies closer to contention? Here’s what will make for a successful season.
The vitals
2016 record: 71-91
2017 depth chart: Click here
2017 schedule: Click here
Young big-league talent mixing with veteran additions
The Phillies’ offense was dreadful last season, finishing dead last in the NL in runs, thanks to being 14th in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Now, there were some good signs. Odubel Herrera was only 24 and has proven he’s no fluke. Cesar Hernandez, 26, got on base at a high clip and stole 17 bases. Tommy Joseph, 25, only got 315 at-bats and still clubbed 21 homers. These are three players who could continue to improve as they age.
Catcher Cameron Rupp appeared in more than 100 games for the first time in his career last season and showed good power potential as well, with 16 home runs in 389 at-bats.
One player who was a disappointment in 2016 would be third baseman Maikel Franco. He flashed his immense upside with 22 doubles, 14 homers and a 130 OPS+ in just a half season in 2015, so many people expected him to push that forward into stardom beginning in 2016. Instead, Franco turned in a .255/.306/.427 (96 OPS+) line. His 1.2 WAR was lower than the 1.7 he posted in 2015.
Seeing slight improvements from Herrera and Hernandez while Joseph and Rupp continue to grow would go a long way toward righting the Philies’ offense, but they need the middle-of-the-order Franco to show up in a big way.
And then veterans Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders need to do their part to supplement the younger players.
Kendrick’s average and power dipped in 2016, but his walk rate rose, so he didn’t see too huge a drop in OBP. Keep in mind, he hit .295 with a .340 on-base in 2013-15 combined, too. At age 33, there’s a chance he bounces back to that level before his steep decline hits.
Saunders was an All-Star after a big first half (.298/.372/.551, 25 2B, 16 HR), but had a poor second half. The Phillies will need to hope he plays like he did in the first half all year this time around.
If all of those things come together, the offense will see drastic improvement.
Upper minor-league prospect development
Shortstop J.P. Crawford was a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball before last season and many thought he’d join the impressive young group of big-league shortstops we’ve seen debut within the past two years (you know: Correa, Seager, Lindor, Russell). Let’s keep in mind he was only 21, but Crawford hit just .250/.349/.339 between Double-A (36 games) and Triple-A (87 games) last season.
Some have become less bullish on his prospect status since last season, but let’s keep in mind he’s still only 22. There’s plenty of time. If things go smoothly early in the year, it’s possible he joins the Phillies and starts taking steps toward becoming a good big-league shortstop.
Also to watch:
Catcher Jorge Alfaro: The fringe top-100 prospect got a cup of coffee last year and hit .285/.325/.458 with 15 homers in Double-A last year.
Outfielder Roman Quinn: Another cup-of-coffee guy, the former second-rounder hit .287/.361/.441 with 31 steals in Double-A in 2016.
Outfielder Nick Williams: His stock soared heading into 2016 and then he hit .258/.287/.427 with 19 walks and 136 strikeouts in Triple-A. So he could use a bounce-back while honing those strike-zone control skills (though it’s always been a big problem).
Outfielder Dylan Cozens: The former second-rounder has big-time power, as he had 38 doubles, 40 homers and 125 RBI in 134 Double-A games last year. He struck out 186 times, but did have a .350 OBP and 21 steals.
Any or all of these guys could impact the 2017 team and help carry optimism into 2018.
Obviously the progress of everyone (such as last year’s No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak) matters, but these are the guys with chances to jump the Phillies more quickly into contention when teamed with the above young core guys.
The Young Guns
Veterans Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson are in the rotation and capable of having decent-to-good seasons, but what matters most here is the growth from the arms that will be the backbone of the Phillies’ next contender.
Right-hander Aaron Nola was the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft out of LSU. Through 12 starts last year, he carried a 2.65 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 78 innings. Beautiful. Of course, his next eight starts were worth a 9.82 ERA.
He would be shut down due to an elbow injury, but questions linger. Was the injury what caused the downturn, or was it something else? If it was the elbow, is he completely OK now? As recently as Tuesday, Nola told the Associated Press he’s completely healthy.
Vince Velasquez, a 24-year-old righty, busted out early last season as well, highlighted by a 16-strikeout shutout in his second start. Through his first eight starts, he had a 2.42 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. He settled down a bit, but was still putting together a good season until he had biceps troubles. Overall, though, there was more good than bad with a 4.12 ERA (100 ERA+ on the nose) and 152 strikeouts in 131 innings. The keys here are more consistency and across-the-board improvement that comes with experience.
Then there’s Jerad Eickhoff, he of the filthy curveball. Last year was his first full season in a rotation and he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 197 1/3 innings. He needs to further develop that fastball to make his curve that much more effective -- in that hitters can sit on the hook -- and with that hopefully the home runs figure (30 last year) drastically dips. He was only one off the NL lead in homers allowed.
A Phillies fan can dream about a Nola, Velasquez, Eickhoff big three in the rotation in the near future. So let’s see how they do this year, hopefully with a full season’s worth of starts from each.
Probable lineup
- Cesar Hernandez, 2B
- Howie Kendrick, LF
- Odubel Herrera, CF
- Maikel Franco, 3B
- Michael Saunders, RF
- Tommy Joseph, 1B
- Freddy Galvis, SS
- Cameron Rupp, C
Bench: Ryan Hanigan, C; Andres Blanco, IF; Aaron Altherr, OF; Tyler Goeddel, OF; Chris Coghlan, UT
As noted above, some of the upper minor-league players could provide an influx of position-playing talent at some point this season, depending upon how they play and/or injuries.
Probable rotation
- Jeremy Hellickson (R)
- Jerad Eickhoff (R)
- Clay Buchholz (R)
- Vince Velasquez (R)
- Aaron Nola (R)
ALT: Alec Asher (R), Jake Thompson (R)
Don’t worry about the order. It’s entirely possible that Nola and Velasquez pitch as the top two this season with Eickhoff also in the mix.
Also, might as well throw out the annual “will we ever see Mark Appel?” question. The 2013 No. 1 overall pick has made 20 starts in Triple-A in each of the past two seasons, pitching to a 4.47 ERA at that level. He’s not old at age 25, so all hope isn’t lost just yet. Patience has to be thinning, though.
Probable bullpen
Closer: Jeanmar Gomez (R)
Setup: Joaquin Benoit (R), Hector Neris (R), Pat Neshek (R)
Lefty: Joely Rodriguez
The rest: Edubray Ramos (R), Luis Garcia (R)
Neris struck out 102 in 80 1/3 innings last year with a 2.58 ERA. We’ve seen the best versions of Benoit and Neshek. Gomez has had spurts of effectiveness and saved 37 games last year. So there’s at least the potential -- or maybe it’s more “hope” than potential -- for a strong late-inning bullpen here.
Sportsline projection: 64-98, last in the NL East.
Only the Reds are projected with a worse record in NL. I’m more optimistic for the Phillies than that, but they need major steps forward in lots of areas to greatly improve upon last year. For me, it’s more about getting the steps forward out of all the young players we mentioned this year. Then look to 2018. Patience.
