Coming into the season, the Red Sox were considered a likely contender in the AL East title if not the favorite. A splashy offseason combined with an "it can't all go wrong again" line of thinking had many folks believing this club was a threat for the World Series. Instead, lots did go wrong again, and the team is heading for another finish near the bottom of the AL East, their third in the past four seasons. Let's look back at what happened in 2015 and forward to what may happen in 2016.
What went right in 2015: Both Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts emerged as above-average contributors at shortstop and center field, respectively. Above average at the very least, too. Bogaerts and Betts have legitimate star potential. David Ortiz started slow but has typical Big Papi numbers now. He hit his 500th career home run earlier this month.
The Red Sox also saw flashes of brilliance from young guys like catcher Blake Swihart, outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Clay Buchholz pitched well before getting hurt and Dustin Pedroia played as well as he has in years around some injuries. Bogaerts and Betts are the big ones though. Boston should be thrilled with their development in an otherwise forgettable season.
What went wrong in 2015: We have to start with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. The Red Sox invested roughly $200 million into those two as free agents last winter and they were total non-factors. In fact, as of this writing, 958 position players have appeared in an MLB game this season. Ramirez and Sandoval are tied for 957th with minus-1.9 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Yikes.
The decision to move Ramirez to left field -- to be fair, Ramirez was totally on board and initially called the Red Sox to express interest in returning to the team -- was a total disaster. Either the team underestimated the difficulty of the transition or simply didn't care. Ramirez was the worst defensive outfielder I have ever seen. That's not hyperbole. The Red Sox are moving him to first base in 2016.
Mike Napoli and Allen Craig provided little offensive help -- Napoli was shipped to the Rangers in an August waiver trade while Craig was buried in Triple-A most of the year -- and neither did Shane Victorino or Daniel Nava, who were both hurt and ineffective before being jettisoned. Aside from Betts in center, the outfield was in a real state of flux for most of the year.
Boston's pitching questions coming into 2015 turned out to be very legitimate. Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson performed poorly in the first half -- Kelly wound up in Triple-A and Masterson was released -- and while they've been able to turn things around in the second half, it has been too little, too late. The bullpen has also been a weakness, including the free-agent signings (Alexi Ogando), waiver claims (Jean Machi) and internal options (Matt Barnes, etc.).
Injuries struck the Red Sox like they struck every team. Buchholz was limited to 18 starts, Pedroia will play fewer than 100 games, projected starting catcher Christian Vazquez blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery in spring training, and others like Ryan Hanigan, Koji Uehara and Steven Wright missed time too. For a team that emphasized depth, they didn't get much help from their injury replacements.
Red Sox MVP: I'm going with Betts and Bogaerts as my co-MVPs. I would argue Bogaerts was more valuable given position scarcity, but they both deserve to be recognized. Betts and Bogaerts were Boston's two best players from start to finish in 2015.
Red Sox LVP: We had co-MVPs, so we might as well have co-LVPs too. Ramirez and Sandoval were not just bad signings this year, they were disaster signings. They didn't hit -- Ramirez had a 90 OPS+, Sandoval a 76 OPS+ -- and they didn't play defense either. Both guys were among the worst players in all of baseball in 2015.
Pending free agents: Clay Buchholz ($13 million option), Craig Breslow, Rich Hill
2016 payroll commitments: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Red Sox have approximately $129 million tied up in 2016 payroll right now, not including Buchholz's option, which I expect to be picked up. Junichi Tazawa and Kelly will get decent arbitration raises but nothing crazy. The Red Sox opened this season with a $184 million payroll after sitting closer to $155 million from 2013-14.
Biggest offseason decision: In the wake of their disappointing season, the Red Sox have already made their most important moves by changing the front office. Dave Dombrowski was hired to be the new president of baseball operations, incumbent GM Ben Cherington resigned, assistant GM Mike Hazen was promoted to replace Cherington, and former Braves GM Frank Wren was brought on as an adviser.
The new-look front office must figure out what to do with Ramirez and Sandoval first and foremost. Keep them, or look for a trade, if possible? Ramirez is being moved to first base, so it seems like a plan is in place for him. Can they find a taker for Sandoval so third base can go to Brock Holt and Travis Shaw? I'm sure the Red Sox will look to unload him. Good luck finding a taker.
Dombrowski has indicated finding a legitimate ace for the rotation is a top priority, and it's worth noting David Price, who Dombrowski had with the Tigers, will be a free agent. That sure seems like a good fit, doesn't it? Improving the pitching in general is a must, and that includes both the rotation and the bullpen. Deciding whether to address the staff by spending money or trading prospects (or both!) will be a big decision for Dombrowski & Co.
2016 will be better if ... The Red Sox add an ace and the second-half performances of Porcello, Miley and Kelly carry into next season. Also if youngsters like Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Swihart and Rodriguez take steps forward and Ortiz continues to thumb his nose at Father Time. Boston has a great farm system and an enviable collection of young big leaguers.
2016 will be worse if ... Ramirez and Sandoval continue to be detriments and all those young players have some early-career hiccups like so many young players do. An unimproved pitching staff -- Dombrowski had a lot of problems building a bullpen with the Tigers, remember -- would also do the trick.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: The Red Sox will add a high-end pitcher but not Price. My guess is they swing a trade for Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco instead. The pitching improves, Ramirez and Sandoval rebound only slightly, and the young players are hit or miss. All of that will have the BoSox in postseason contention, likely for a wild-card spot rather than the AL East title.
