Red Sox vs. Tigers: American League bracket rides on most important series of regular season's final weekend
The American League Central, two wild card spots and four teams could be affected by this series
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4 min read
Major League Baseball is entering the final weekend of the regular season, and there's no question about which series is the most crucial on paper.
The Boston Red Sox will host the Detroit Tigers for three games beginning on Friday night, and those contests will not only determine who wins the American League Central, but who claims the Junior Circuit's final two wild card spots. In all, the course of the Red Sox-Tigers series will have direct consequences for four different squads: the two involved parties, the Cleveland Guardians, and the Houston Astros.
What's at stake in final weekend of MLB regular season? Where things stand with three games left
R.J. Anderson
Here's the AL wild card picture as of Friday morning:
| Team | GB | Tiebreaker advantage over |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox | +1 | CLE, HOU |
Guardians/Tigers loser | -- | If CLE: DET, HOU; if DET: HOU |
Astros | 1 | None |
The Red Sox will enter Friday's series opener as the AL's second wild card team, a game up on the Tigers and Guardians (who are tied atop the AL Central) and two games ahead of the Astros. Obviously one of those Central teams will not prevail in the division -- the Guardians possess the tiebreaker advantage -- meaning that they're in direct competition not only with each other, but with the Red Sox (literally in the Tigers' case) and with the Astros, who are at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Below, CBS Sports has broken down the playoff implications of this weekend's series for all four clubs. First, though, let's provide some key information on the series itself, with the probables and start times. Select games can be streamed on Fubo (try for free).
| Day | Start time | DET probable | BOS probable |
|---|---|---|---|
Friday | 7:10 pm ET | RHP Casey Mize | LHP Kyle Harrison |
Saturday | 4:10 pm ET | RHP Chris Paddack | LHP Connelly Early |
Sunday | 3:05 pm ET | LHP Tarik Skubal | RHP Lucas Giolito |
Now, let's break down these four clubs' playoff implications, addressing them in order of their playoff likelihood.
1. Boston Red Sox (87-72)
- Playoff position: One game up on second wild card spot, up two games on playoff berth
- Schedule: 3 vs. Tigers
The Red Sox will clinch a playoff berth with either their next win or the Astros' next loss. That's because the Red Sox are both two games up on the Astros and in possession of the head-to-head series victory. In other words, the only scenario that would see the Red Sox miss out on October would require them being swept this weekend and the Astros sweeping the Los Angeles Angels. Is that a possible outcome? Yes. Is it a likely one? No. The Red Sox will be on the road for the wild card series either way. While the Red Sox possess the tiebreaker over the Guardians, there is no scenario where the Red Sox both tie the Tigers and have the tiebreaker advantage over Detroit.
2. Cleveland Guardians (86-73)
- Playoff position: Tied in the AL Central, one game up on final wild card
- Schedule: 3 vs. Rangers
The Guardians are technically tied with the Tigers for the top spot in the AL Central, but in all actuality they're a game up. How's that? Because earlier this week, the Guardians clinched the season series against the Tigers, giving them the tiebreaker advantage. The only way the Tigers can win the Central, then, is by winning it outright. The Guardians, conversely, just have to achieve a tie or better. That gives them a leg up, in the division and in their chances of punching a ticket to October.
3. Detroit Tigers (86-73)
- Playoff position: Tied in the AL Central, one game up on final wild card
- Schedule: 3 at Red Sox
The Tigers are on the cusp of one of the most drastic collapses in recent memory, having led the AL Central by 10 games as recently as Sept. 3. They aren't in control of their own fate anymore, having dropped the seasonal series to the Guardians, meaning that they aren't assured a division title even if they sweep the Red Sox this weekend. The chances of the Tigers making it into October remain healthy all the same because the Tigers possess both a one-game lead and the tiebreaker advantage over the Astros -- in effect, giving them a two-game edge with three to play.
4. Houston Astros (85-74)
- Playoff position: One game back of final wild card spot
- Schedule: 3 at Angels
The Astros are in a tight spot. They need to handle their business and sweep the Angels this weekend to have any real shot at making it into October, but they also need help elsewhere because they do not possess a tiebreaker advantage over any of the three clubs they're competing against for these two wild card spots. Even if the Astros do sweep the Angels, the Red Sox would earn a spot with a win and the Tigers and Guardians would do the same with two wins apiece. In other words, the Astros should be rooting for a clean sweep in the Red Sox-Tigers series. It doesn't matter who, all that matters is that the Astros are in position to win two more games than the inferior Central team, or three more games than the Red Sox. A sweep in that Houston-Detroit series is the easiest way to achieve that outcome.
