The Rays' attempt at another miraculous finish is over. Instead of making their fourth playoff appearance in five years, October will be left to the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. With the Rays mathematically eliminated, let us eulogize the season that was.
What went right
Pitching, as expected, was a strength for the Rays this season. Not only did the starters (here's where it gets confusing with stats, going into Sunday, they were just a tad behind, the Nats) have the lowest ERA in the American League, so too did its bullpen. As you can deduce from that, they had the lowest ERA of any pitching staff in the majors. Starter David Price is a top Cy Young candidate and Fernando Rodney was the AL's best closer.
What went wrong
Evan Longoria may not be the American League's Most Valuable Player, but he's probably the most valuable player in the American League. The Rays were 46-26 with Longoria in the lineup and 43-45 without him. And for a team that is 11th in runs scored, an offensive presence like Longoria was greatly missed for much of the season.
MVP: It's a tough choice here -- and I'm no fanatic when it comes to "closer mentality" and all that, but, for a team that played in so many tight games, I've got to go with Rodney. The 35-year-old was signed on the cheap and came through with 47 saves in 49 chances. He put up a ridiculous 0.61 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while striking out roughly a batter an inning. WAR disagrees, with fWAR giving the nod to Ben Zobrist, while bWAR goes to Price. Either is a worthy choice, but Rodney has been so good, he gets my vote.
LVP: Even though batting average has rarely been kind to Carlos Pena, he could always be counted on to add some sock. This year, though, he was a flop. While his flirtation with the Mendoza Line was nothing new -- he hit .196 in 2010 -- his lack of slugging was. Even in 2010, he hit 28 homers. After Monday, he has 19 and has slugged just .352, a far cry from his league-leading 39 homers and .537 slugging in 2009.
Free agents to be: OF B.J. Upton, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, INF Jeff Keppinger, LHP J.P. Howell, RHP Fernando Rodney ($2.5 million club option), RHP James Shields ($9 million club option), DH Luke Scott ($6 million club option), C Jose Molina ($1.8 million club option), 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Joel Peralta.
Gameplan heading into the offseason
While losing free agents is a way of life in Tampa Bay, the team should exercise its affordable option on Rodney and find a way to keep the versatile Keppinger, who has been a perfect fit for a Joe Maddon-managed team. Upton is as good as gone, but that's been evident for a long time.
Depending on which options the Rays pick up (it's doubtful Pena or Scott will be back), the team could have three or four spots to pick up, including an outfield spot, catcher, first base and designated hitter. They will also have to decide whether to stick with Zobrist at shortstop, or if they want to move him somewhere else and find some sort of upgrade that doesn't exist on the current roster or in their system. While Molina's offensive numbers aren't stellar, he brings value defensively. Tampa Bay isn't going to spend big bucks on the free agent market, but they do make wise moves in free agency, picking up players that have been passed over and seem to produce with the Rays.
The one thing that could happen, finally, is that the team deals Shields for some offensive help. Shields is the team's highest-paid player at $9 million (if they pick up his option) and is under team control for one more year at $12 million, which is reasonable for a frontline starter. Because he has more than one year left on his contract, he can be valuable to teams looking for starting pitching, and that's pretty much everyone.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2013
Back in the Devil Rays days, Tampa Bay was one of the easiest teams to predict -- they'd finish is last and play to a half-empty stadium. The prognostication hasn't gotten any more difficult in the Rays era, the team will make shrewd offseason moves, someone who was thought to be washed up or even a failed prospect, will blossom, the team will have a Cy Young candidate or two, and challenge for a playoff spot.
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