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Over the weekend, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league announced their intention to post right-hander Roki Sasaki for MLB consideration. (The posting system is essentially MLB's transfer portal with NPB and South Korea's KBO.) Sasaki, 23, has been an international sensation since he threw a 19-strikeout perfect game during the 2022 season. It's fair to describe him as the most talented pitcher not already employed by one MLB organization or another.

Once Sasaki is posted, it stands to reason that every team will touch base with his camp. His earning potential will be greatly suppressed by his classification as an amateur free agent (due to his age and lack of service time). MLB teams will be able to offer him only as much as they have left in their international amateur signing bonus pools. Only two teams, the Dodgers and the Orioles, have more than $2 million in their 2024 coffers, according to the Associated Press.

There is a potential catch here. The current international amateur signing period ends on Dec. 15, with a fresh cycle opening a month later. If Sasaki waits until Jan. 15 to sign, when every team has their full 2025 pool available, he will markedly increase his earning potential. Of course, if Sasaki cared solely about the bottom line, he would've waited until he was no longer classified as an amateur. At that point, Sasaki would've been able to sign a contract like the $325 million pact inked last winter by countryman and fellow right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

Sasaki's willingness to forgo that scenario suggests he's being driven by other factors, much the way Shohei Ohtani was when he first came to the United States. And while that would seem to open up Sasaki's list of potential suitors, it doesn't eliminate the belief that one team is the favorite to land him: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Indeed, there are a few obvious reasons to think the Dodgers might already have secured the inner lane in the Sasaki race. That begins with the fact they have the most money to offer him during this current signing bonus cycle. Additionally, the Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions and are widely viewed within the industry as the model organization in both player evaluation and development. 

In other words, the Dodgers are the pick for Sasaki if he wants to get paid as much as he can (this cycle anyway); win a ring; and/or become the best version of himself. On top of all that, the Dodgers employ Ohtani and Yamamoto, two of Sasaki's Team Japan teammates, and have shown a willingness to add the necessary support staff. (Be it Ippei Mizuhara, Ohtani's now-disgraced ex-interpreter, or Yamamoto's biomechanics guru Osamu Yada.) 

Only Sasaki knows how much any of this stuff matters, if at all. Patch it all together, though, and the Dodgers seem to cover every potential base in a way that makes them the aggregate favorite.

Still, for the sake of making things interesting, we figured it would be worthwhile to highlight a few other teams who would seem to have better than even odds at wooing Sasaki over the coming weeks. Let us make the brief case for these three teams, presented her in no particular order:

  1. Baltimore Orioles: The other team with more than $2 million to spend this cycle. The O's have an impressive young core and an obvious need for more impact arms. Baltimore is also, correctly, known for its player development acumen.
  2. New York Yankees: In addition to having the third-most money to offer this cycle, the Yankees have one obvious factor working in their favor: they're the Yankees. Few other franchises can make the prestige and global brand value.
  3. San Diego Padres: This one comes with a caveat: the Padres have just over $2,000 remaining in this cycle's pool, making them a non-factor unless this pushes into January. Should that come to fruition, well, you can never discount A.J. Preller's willingness to make a bold move -- in this instance, perhaps finding a way to add additional bonus pool money through trades. It may or may not help that San Diego employs Yu Darvish, another of Sasaki's Team Japan teammates.