Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the San Diego Padres.
1. Ethan Salas, C (17 years old)
- Top-25 ranking: No. 8
- The short version: Shockingly polished defender with offensive upside.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
A teenager has not caught at the big-league level since Iván Rodríguez did so in 1991. Salas is going to change that. He has until June 2026 to do it, too. The Padres had him catch during a big-league exhibition game last spring and he did not look out of place despite at the time being a 16-year-old entering his first pro season. Salas is more than a preternaturally gifted receiver. He showed good contact chops throughout his first season, and he even launched nine home runs in 48 games at A-ball. (Four of those were to center.) The Padres pushed him along at an aggressive pace, letting him close out the year with a nine-game sampling of Double-A. It's reasonable to think that his bat is going to lag as a result of San Diego's apparent fast-track development plan; the aforementioned Rodríguez was not close to being a league-average hitter until his third big-league season. Still, Salas' defense should keep him in the lineup. It's unwise to make big bets on young catchers, who are oftentimes as prone to attrition as their batterymates. Salas appears to be the exception.
2. Jackson Merrill, SS (20 years old)
- The short version: Contact-driven lefty with expanding defensive versatility.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
The Padres made three of the first 75 picks in the 2021 draft. Two of their selections (James Wood and Robert Gasser) have since been traded away as part of deals for Juan Soto and Josh Hader. Merrill, the highest drafted of the three, remains in the organization and should soon become part of the big-league lineup. Merrill connected on more than 80% of his swings last season, resulting in a cumulative .277/.326/.444 slash line across High- and Double-A. His ability to put the bat on the ball is his top selling point. He does have some power, but it's almost exclusively to his pull side, and it's hard to see him displacing Xander Bogaerts as the Padres' everyday shortstop. San Diego started playing Merrill at other positions down the stretch, including at first and second base and out in left field. If he remains with the Padres into next season -- and, as Wood and Gasser illustrate, you can never say for sure -- he could begin his pro career in more of a utility-starter role.
3. Dylan Lesko, RHP (20 years old)
- The short version: Just add control.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2025
Lesko was considered the best prep arm and a potential top-10 pick in the 2022 draft before he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery that April. He made his pro debut in 2023, slinging 33 innings across three levels and showing off both a fastball that can dance above the mid-90s and his trademark changeup. The results hardly matter given the sample size and circumstances, but we will note that he struck out more than a third of the batters he faced. (Of course, he also walked more than 15% of them, so you take the sugar with some salt.) We're ranking Lesko No. 3 on the belief that a normal offseason and more distance from his surgery (control is often said to be the last part to return) will enable him to throw more strikes. If so, expect his stock to skyrocket.
