I've already covered CC Sabathia here in his first year on the Hall of Fame ballot and he's well deserving. The Big Man should be a Hall of Famer and I'll vote for him as many times as it takes. In looking at the current ballot, there are two holdover starting pitchers who seem to deserve strong consideration: Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle.
First, let's talk about the direction starting pitching is headed and then we'll discuss the cases of Pettitte and Buehrle from that point of view.
Between openers and bullpen games, the numbers are going to get skewed a bit, but we're still going to take a look at league averages from starting pitchers just to illustrate the direction things have already been headed for a while.
Here are the average innings per start going back a decade at a time.
2024: 5.21
2014: 5.97
2004: 5.86
1994: 6.08
1984: 6.26
1974: 6.55
1964: 6.32
1954: 6.56
1944: 7.08
Now here are the number of pitchers to reach 200 innings by those same seasons.
2024: 4
2014: 34
2004: 42
1993 (1994 was strike shortened): 52
1984: 52
1974: 65
Past that, there were fewer teams and then fewer games, but the idea is pretty simple. Pitchers just aren't given the chance to carry even close to the workloads they used to.
Pitchers in the past had more opportunity. Higher workloads allowed them to rack up higher win totals and much higher WAR accumulation. Sure, maybe facing hitters a third or fourth time through the order could have dragged down things like ERA and WHIP, but the counting stats all add up. There was also more chance for strikeouts, but that's more than mitigated by the skyrocketing strikeout rate in this day and age.
As with all Hall of Fame discussions, we have to consider the full context behind numbers and find a balance.
I'm not quite as worried about the elite tier of pitchers. The generation that is getting close to aging out of the league at present includes surefire Hall of Famers like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke (who is already retired). Once you move down to the likes of Chris Sale and Cole Hamels, though, it's tougher sailing. Do you know who JAWS' highest-ranked active pitcher is that I haven't named? It's Gerrit Cole. But he ranks 152nd all-time. Next is Zack Wheeler at 196.
There are 66 Hall of Fame starting pitchers.
Remember, the JAWS system is heavily WAR-dependent and the workload there greatly impacts the figures. Even if we were going more old school, Cole has 153 wins and he's 34 years old. Wheeler? He's also 34 and only has 103 career wins.
I'm not suggesting Cole and Wheeler definitely have to end up in Cooperstown, though I'd submit that Cole should be viewed already as a future Hall of Famer. I'm simply illustrating that we probably need to loosen the standards a bit for Hall of Fame starting pitchers, otherwise we're bound to run into a wall in the next few decades.
Notice that I didn't say lower the standard in extreme fashion. I'm still a no on Felix Hernandez despite his stellar prime. I'm just saying we can loosen things up a little bit. The starting pitcher is waning in importance, but the good ones are still the most important players on the field whenever they take the mound. They are the main characters of the game.
It's all stuff to consider before we glance at Pettitte and Buehrle.
Mark Buehrle
The steady lefty hasn't found much footing in Hall voting so far. He's been on the ballot four times and has gotten 11%, 5.8%, 10.8% and 8.3% of the vote, respectively, in those four chances. Without a serious upward trend starting either this year or next, he's not getting in.
In parts of 16 seasons, Buehrle was 214-160 with a 3.81 ERA (117 ERA+, which helps account for the incredibly offense-heavy era in which he pitched), 1.28 WHIP and 1,870 strikeouts in 3,283 ⅓ innings. He was a frontline starter for the 2005 World Series champion White Sox. They won all three of his playoff starts and he also recorded a save. The five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover didn't get higher in Cy Young voting than fifth, but there's plenty of room for all types of Hall of Famers and being a workhorse was Buehrle's calling card.
I wrote more at length about him a few years ago, but Buehrle truly was an all-time great workhorse. Here are the most 200-inning seasons in the 2000s:
1. Buehrle, 14
2. Verlander, 12
3. James Shields, 10
t4. Greinke, 9
t4. Livan Hernandez, 9
t4. Javier Vazquez, 9
He hit 200 innings every single year of his career except his rookie year (when he debuted in July) and his final season, when he reached 198 ⅔. There's also this:
In fact, if we looked at the most 200-inning seasons in a career all-time, Buehrle is in good company. There are only 14 pitchers who had 15 200-inning seasons. All but two (Jack Powell and Roger Clemens) are Hall of Famers (list here). And Buehrle was just four outs in his last season from hitting 200 for a 15th time. Those with exactly 14 200-inning seasons: Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Jim Kaat, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn, Red Ruffing and Christy Mathewson. Everyone but Buehrle is already a Hall of Famer.
Even in an era when innings from starters were beginning to be depressed, Buehrle finished 99th all-time in innings. He's 93rd in wins. He was an exceptional defender and threw two no-hitters, including a perfect game.
Buehrle sits 79th in JAWS, ahead of Hall of Famers like Joe McGinnity, Whitey Ford, Jim Kaat, Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter and Bob Lemon. Some contemporary pitchers ranking around Buehrle are Sale, Hamels and ... Andy Pettitte.
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte sits 82nd in JAWS, ahead of all those Hall of Fame pitchers I just listed except McGinnity.
In parts of 18 seasons, Pettitte went 256-153 with a 3.85 ERA (117 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP and 2,448 strikeouts in 3,316 innings. The three-time All-Star finished in the top six of Cy Young voting five times, topping out at second in 1996, when he led the league with 21 wins. Though he wasn't quite as prolific a workhorse as Buehrle, Petttitte topped 200 innings 10 times and surpassed 185 three more times. He ranks 93rd in career innings pitched and 46th in strikeouts, even though he wasn't considered a power pitcher.
There's also a big postseason boost for Pettitte, who won five World Series rings and pitched in eight Fall Classics, taking 2001 ALCS MVP.
In fact, Pettitte is the all-time leader in postseason wins with 19 (Verlander is second with 17 and no one else has more than 15).
In his 44 playoff starts, Pettitte went 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA. Keep in mind this was through one of the greatest offensive periods in MLB history and, obviously, playoff teams are generally better offensive teams than the competition as a whole in the regular season.
Now, there is the PED tie-in. Petitte was in the Mitchell Report and has admitted to using HGH in 2002. He was never popped for anything once the league was testing, though, and he played until 2013. Testing started in 2004.
It's possible that admission is part of why he hasn't gained a ton of traction in Hall of Fame voting so far. He's had six tries and it's gone 9.9%, 11.3%, 13.7%, 10.7%, 17% and 13.5%.
I suspect, however, it has more with the body of work being less than overwhelming compared to past, elite-level Hall of Fame starting pitchers and that stance needs to lighten up.
If we take everything in here with regard to starting pitchers and workload and opening the door for future inductees at this incredibly important position, it really seems like both Buehrle and Pettitte have very strong cases.
