The Orioles have a new GM and some impressive young talent, but the same owner and the same home in baseball's toughest division.
Major additions: LHP Wei-Yin Chen, LHP Tsuyoshi Wada, DH Wilson Betemit
Major departures: 1B Derrek Lee, DH Vladimir Guerrero, lF Luke Scott, RHP Jeremy Guthrie
Probable lineup
1. Endy Chavez LF
2. J.J. Hardy SS
3. Nick Markakis RF
4. Adam Jones CF
5. Matt Wieters C
6. Mark Reynolds 3B
7. Wilson Betemit DH
8. Chris Davis 1B
9. Robert Andino 2B
Probable rotation
1. Wie-Yin Chen
2. Jason Hammel
3. Brian Matusz
4. Jake Arrieta
5. Tsuyoshi Wada
Back-end bullpen
Closer: Jim Johnson
Set-up: Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Troy Patton
Important bench players
OF Nolan Reimold, C Taylor Teagarden (injured)
Prospect to watch
The Orioles haven't had a homegrown shortstop of note since Cal Ripken Jr., but that could change with the arrival of Manny Machado. Machado has the ability to hit for a high average and could flash 30-homer power one day. There's some question as to whether he'll be long-term shortstop, but he'll hit no matter where he plays.
Fantasy sleeper: Brian Matusz
"Believe it or not, Matusz went 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a strikeout per inning over his final eight starts in 2010, which makes his dismal 2011 even harder to reconcile. But hey, Roy Halladay had a 10.64 ERA in 2000, and he turned out fine. So before you go overboard and suggest Matusz is a lost cause, think back to how the 2011 season began for him. He went down before it even started with an intercostal strain and when he returned, his velocity was the lowest it's ever been. He spent the rest of the season trying to regain his stuff, basically going through spring training while every other player was in midseason form, and by the time his velocity returned, it was September. This year, instead of falling behind, Matusz has committed himself to getting ahead by working out with Brady Anderson in the offseason. The 24-year-old may not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but given his talent, he'll be back soon enough." - Scott White [Full Orioles fantasy preview]
Fantasy bust: Adam Jones
"Funny how a subtle boost in homers, from 19 to 25, can change Fantasy owners' perception of a player. Jones' "power breakthrough" had more to do with at-bats than anything else -- his slugging percentage was only nine points higher than his previous career high -- and yet the same people who previously rated him among the mediocre middle are drafting him alongside established five-category threats Shane Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo this year. Jones is no five-category threat. Granted, another step forward power-wise, which is at least possible for the 26-year-old, would help compensate for his shortcomings, but who's to say one will actually happen? Again, his percentages suggest he hasn't made any real progress over the last three seasons and as a player who strikes out 100 more times than he walks, he's always at risk for a collapse in batting average. As a third or fourth outfielder he's fine, but as a No. 2, Jones is better left for someone else." - Scott White [Full Orioles fantasy preview]
Optimistic outlook
Even according to the most rose-colored of forecasts, he Orioles have no legitimate chance of contention in 2012. They do, however, have a future for the first time in ... years. J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis are under contract through 2014, Adam Jones is still in his arbitration years, and Matt Wieters is beginning to realize his potential. As well, the O's are increasing their presence in the Pacific Rim (well, except for South Korea), and the farm system is as strong as it's been in some time. What Baltimore really needs is for the young pitching to show skills growth in 2012 and for top prospects like Machado and Dylan Bundy to take the next step. Oh, and they finish in fourth place.
Pessimistic outlook
Not only is it a last-place finish, but it's a 100-loss season -- their first since 1988. Young arms like Matusz and Arrieta continue to scuttle, and "in their prime" fixtures like Wieters, Markakis and Jones fail to break out.
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