The last time the Pirates had a winning record, George Bush was President. No, not W -- his father. And the fans and players have to hear about it every single season. The only way to stop hearing about it is to win more than 81 games. Last season, the Pirates improved by 15 games over the 2010 effort, but that still only got them to 72-90. One thing that should provide hope for the future was locking up star outfielder Andrew McCutchen to a five-year deal this offseason. They finally appear to have their franchise player to build around.
Major additions: LHP Erik Bedard, RHP A.J. Burnett, C Rod Barajas, SS Clint Barmes, IF Casey McGehee
Major departures: LHP Paul Maholm, SS Ronny Cedeno, C Ryan Doumit, 1B Derrek Lee, OF Ryan Ludwick
Probable lineup
1. Alex Presley, LF
2. Jose Tabata, RF
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF
4. Neil Walker, 2B
5. Garrett Jones, 1B
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
7. Rod Barajas, C
8. Clint Barmes, SS
Probable rotation
1. Erik Bedard
2. Jeff Karstens
3. James McDonald
4. Kevin Correia
5. Charlie Morton
Burnett will obviously be in the mix here once he's healthy, likely bumping Correia.
Back-end bullpen
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
Set-up: Evan Meek
Important bench players
C Michael McKenry, IF Casey McGehee, OF Nate McLouth
Prospect to watch
While high-end pitching prospect Jamison Taillon certainly merits watching, all eyes are obviously on pitching phenom Gerrit Cole, who was the top overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft. He enters the 2012 season as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and the Pirates are obviously hoping he can be the ace they've sorely lacked for years. A 6-foot-4, 220-pound right-hander, the 21-year-old Cole certainly projects as an ace. When was the last time they had a true ace? That one season of Oliver Perez (2004)? Denny Neagle? Doug Drabek?
Fantasy breakout: Jose Tabata
"Though Tabata is a breakout candidate, he's one with an asterisk, as he had problems staying healthy last season. That said, he has the potential to steal 30 bases if he plays a full season. Also, Tabata virtually never pops out, so seasons like his last one, in which he batted just .266, should be the exception. While he may never be a 20-homer threat, Tabata's minor league history suggests that there is a little more thump in his bat than what he has shown in his first two seasons. While Tabata is something of an injury risk, he is expected to be ready for opening day, and he should produce like a No. 4 OF in mixed leagues." - Al Melchior [Full Pirates team fantasy preview]
Fantasy one-hit wonder: Jeff Karstens
"Karstens led the Pirates' starters with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2011, making him the team's de facto ace. He also posted 16 quality starts in 26 tries, including a streak of nine in a row, which endeared him to owners in Head-to-Head leagues. To be sure, Karstens was a better pitcher last year than he had been in the past, and specifically, he raised his ground ball rate, which led to fewer long balls. However, Karstens still gives up a lot of dingers, so it's unlikely that he can manage to strand 78 percent of his baserunners again this year. While owners may be able to count on Karstens for a low WHIP, look for his ERA to sail north of 4.00, making him a far less attractive option for mixed leagues." - Al Melchior [Full Pirates team fantasy preview]
Optimistic outlook
Alvarez finally develops into a solid power hitter at the big-league level while Barajas and Barmes at the bottom make this a good, balanced lineup. The rotation, though still void of an ace, proves deep and effective while the Meek-Hanrahan duo is lights out. And the Pirates seep into the low-80s in wins and finally break the drought.
Pessimistic outlook
Between the starting lineup and rotation, one could argue there is only one above-average player. Team that with shaky health in the rotation, the young pitching help still not being ready and possible regression from Hanrahan and you have the Pirates again hitting 100 losses and a last-place finish.
