In 2014, the Rangers stumbled to 95 losses, which is the most defeats they’d racked up in a season since 1985. Under manager Jeff Banister, though, Texas enjoyed a swift reversal. They won 88 games and the AL West title in 2015, and then repeated as division champs in 2016 while notching 95 wins.
Heading into the 2017, the Rangers may not be the favorites to three-peat in the AL West (Astros, doff your caps), but they’re very much capable of playing deep into October.
To that end, GM Jon Daniels and company have complemented a strong core (and a strong farm system) by tapping into the free agent market for rotation depth and veteran first baseman Mike Napoli. That is to say, they’re well-positioned to matter once again as Yu Darvish enters his walk year.
So what’s ahead for what’s been one of the best organizations in all of baseball throughout recent history? Let’s crack open this particular coconut ...
The vitals
- 2016 record: 95-67
- 2017 depth chart: click here
- 2017 schedule: click here
That run differential, though
Yes, the Rangers won 95 games in 2016. On the downside, they outscored their opponents by just eight total runs. Based on run differential, that means Texas played like an 82-80 team.
Drill down to the batted-ball level, and things don’t get much better for them. The concern is that their 2017 baseline may be lower than you’d think based on those 95 wins. Clutch hitting, generally speaking, is what allowed the Rangers to outplay their runs scored and runs allowed, and clutch hitting isn’t a sustainable skill at the team level.
On the other hand, the Rangers’ current roster is better than that of an 82-win team. Last season, their run differential improved after they found the proper bullpen mix, got Yu Darvish back, added Carlos Gomez, and traded for Jonathan Lucroy. Those pieces are still in place, so you can’t quite eyeball that plus-8 run differential and assume the 2017 Rangers are a .500-ish squadron. There’s a middle ground between 95 and 82 wins, and somewhere in there is where the 2017 Rangers will settle.
Can the rotation stay healthy?
Potentially, Texas will have a strong rotation in 2017. Health throughout that rotation, however, may be hard to come by.
Consider:
- Darvish hasn’t registered a qualifying number of innings since 2013. He’s been on the DL five times since joining the Rangers and is of course a veteran of Tommy John surgery.
- Martin Perez underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2014.
- Andrew Cashner has been on the DL six times in his career, including twice last season for neck and hamstring problems. He also dealt with blisters in 2016. This spring, he’s already been shut down with biceps tendinitis.
- A.J. Griffin underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2015 and spent time on the DL in each of the last two seasons with shoulder issues.
- Tyson Ross will open the season on the DL after thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October of last year. Because of the condition, Ross was limited to just a single start in 2016. He’s making progress in camp, but he’s very much an unknown quantity for the time being.
The takeaway from all of this is that the Rangers’ rotation depth could be tested early and often in 2017. Last season, the Rangers used 11 different starting pitchers, and that mark could be matched or surpassed in the season to come.
Should they need to dip into their reserves, then Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez may be the first in line. Top pitching prospect Yohander Mendez might also be an option, but he may require a bit more seasoning.
Too many maladies, though, and the Rangers may need to survey the trade market, possibly well in advance of the non-waiver deadline. If, say, Darvish goes down behind Cole Hamels, then perhaps the going rates for Jose Quintana look a bit more reasonable.
Lucroy’s effect on the rotation
On Aug. 6 of last year, the Rangers acquired catcher Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers. Lucroy is of course one of the best-hitting catchers in the game today, and he’s also a highly skilled defender at the position -- particularly when it comes to handling pitches and framing pitches. That’s significant for Texas because they’ve been lacking in this area for some time.
Of note, of course, is that Lucroy will spend his first full season with the Rangers in 2017. As such, the Rangers may be better in ways that escape easy detection thanks to their having a skilled backstop on a full-time, season-long basis.
Outfield has questions to answer
The Rangers of course bid adieu to Ian Desmond via free agency, and the departure of deadline acquisition Carlos Beltran means than Shin Soo-Choo will slide over to the DH role. All of this means some churn in the Texas outfield. As you’ll see in our projected lineup below, they figure to trot out Jurickson Profar in left, Carlos Gomez in center, and Nomar Mazara in right. There’s upside in that arrangement, but there’s also uncertainty.
In Gomez’s case, he struggled so badly in Houston that he got released. He looked much better in Texas, thanks in large part to an altered swing, and that’s a good sign moving forward. Still, at age 31 and with some recent history of poor production, Gomez isn’t a sure thing.
Speaking of which, Profar and Mazara, while still young and highly promising in the long-term, may not produce at a high level right away. Last season each started out strong, and each saw his numbers degrade significantly as the season wore on. That pattern for a young hitter raises concerns about getting exposed and failing to adapt.
The likelihood is that the Rangers’ outfield will be perfectly fine in 2017 and may even be a pronounced asset (bear in mind that Delino DeShields is also around for depth). However, there’s some risk with this grouping. One thing to watch is whether power prospect Joey Gallo, primarily a third baseman in the minors, emerges as a candidate at one of the corner spots.
Probable lineup
- Carlos Gomez, CF
- Shin-Soo Choo, DH
- Adrian Beltre, 3B
- Mike Napoli, 1B
- Rougned Odor, 2B
- Jonathan Lucroy, C
- Nomar Mazara, RF
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Jurickson Profar, LF
Probable rotation
- Cole Hamels (L)
- Yu Darvish (R)
- Martin Perez (L)
- Andrew Cashner (R)
- A.J. Griffin (R)
Probable bullpen
Sam Dyson did a fine job as the team’s closer last season despite a strikeout rate that doesn’t meet the standards of many typical ninth-inning options across the league. He’ll have Jeremy Jeffress and Matt Bush setting him up, and either could be a candidate for saves should Dyson falter. Jeffress has experience in the ninth inning from him time in Milwaukee.
SportsLine projection: 83-79, second place in the AL West