Nothing is ever guaranteed in baseball, though the safest bet of the offseason is the Chicago White Sox trading ace Garrett Crochet. The ChiSox somewhat surprisingly did not move Crochet at the deadline, possibly because he demanded an extension in exchange for pitching in the postseason, but Chicago is unlikely to keep him this winter. Crochet's trade value has never been higher and now is the time for the 121-loss White Sox to cash him in as a trade chip.
"They're going to trade him this winter," one rival evaluator told ESPN at last week's GM Meetings. "It's not a matter of if. It's a question of when."
Crochet, who turned only 25 in June, is our No. 1 trade candidate this offseason. He has been connected to several teams since the World Series ended a little more than two weeks ago, and given his affordable salary and two years of control, Crochet makes sense for every single team. Contenders, rebuilders, teams on the bubble, etc. There is never a bad time to add an ace-caliber starter, especially one you can keep for more than one season.
In 2024, Crochet threw 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, though the White Sox were statistically the worst defensive team in the game, so Crochet's ERA is inflated. The under-the-hood numbers indicate he was much better than a 3.58 ERA pitcher: 2.69 FIP, 2.83 expected ERA, and 2.75 deserved run average. Crochet pitched at an ace level, truly, and it was his first season as a big-league starter. He initially broke into the show as a reliever.
Watch Crochet pitch and it's fairly obvious why he's an in-demand trade candidate. Lefties who reside in the upper 90s and have a wipeout breaking ball are rare. Crochet has closer stuff as a starter. Here are three more reasons the southpaw is the most attractive starting pitcher on the trade market this winter.
1. The strikeout and walk rates are absurd
In his first season as a starter, Crochet proved to be one of the game's top bat-missers and also one of the game's best control artists. Some guys run high strikeout rates but also have high walk rates because they try to get hitters to chase. Others have low walk rates and also low strikeout rates because they're in the zone a lot. Crochet fits neither group.
Among the 81 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings in 2024, Crochet had the highest strikeout rate (by a lot) and also the 12th lowest walk rate. Here are the strikeout rate leaders among those 81 pitchers:
- Garrett Crochet: 35.1% of batters faced
- Chris Sale: 32.1%
- Tarik Skubal: 30.3%
- Sonny Gray: 30.3%
- Jack Flaherty: 29.9%
That 35.1% strikeout rate came with a 5.5% walk rate, which is in the same range as control artists like Seth Lugo (5.7%) and Logan Webb (5.8%). The MLB averages for starting pitchers were 22.0% strikeouts and 7.6% walks in 2024. Crochet was comfortably better than the league average in both categories. Missing this many bats while walking that few is a rare combination.
There is more to life than strikeout and walk rates, and these days we can measure exactly what kind of contact a pitcher allows. Crochet this year was almost perfectly league average in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed, and he did a good job generating ground balls and infield pop-ups. He's not elite, like his strikeout and walk rates, but he's very good.
Put it all together -- elite strikeout rate, elite walk rate, above average ground ball and infield pop-up rates, average contact quality -- and you have one of the top starters in the game. Usually there's some give and take. You take the strikeouts and live with the walks, you take the ground balls and live with some hard contact, but not with Crochet. He's very well-rounded.
2. He added a new pitch late in the season
Crochet's move into the rotation was as successful as it was because he added a cutter, a pitch that bridged his upper-90s fastball and mid-80s sweeper nicely. The cutter sits low-90s and the movement profiles fits in snuggly between his fastball and sweeper. Basically, the cutter forces hitters to look in a third location and makes Crochet that much more unpredictable.
Late in the season, Crochet added another new pitch, this time an upper-90s sinker. He threw it only 50 times all year and all 50 came after Aug. 3. He threw 36 of those 50 sinkers in his final three starts. Clearly, Crochet was tinkering with a new pitch as the season wound down, the results were promising. Opponents hit .154 and missed with a third of their swings against the sinker.
Coming into 2024, Crochet was a fastball/sweeper guy with a show-me changeup. Now he's a fastball/cutter/sweeper guy with a burgeoning sinker and a show-me changeup. And thanks to that expanding arsenal, Crochet was more effective against righties (.640 OPS) than lefties (.651 OPS) in 2024. This isn't a lefty who runs into trouble against lineups stacked with righties.
As important as the raw stuff is the aptitude. Crochet showed us this year that he can learn new pitches, is willing to throw them in games, and can quickly incorporate them into his arsenal. It's not easy! Some guys add new pitches and are a bit skittish about using them in games, or they simply can't figure out the grip. Crochet can do all those things. He's coachable and adaptable.
3. He's dirt cheap
The White Sox called Crochet up to the big leagues soon after selecting him with the No. 11 pick in the 2020 draft. He helped them to the postseason that year and again in 2021, then his elbow gave out in April 2022. Crochet had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2022 season and most of 2023. The 2024 season was his first full year with his new elbow ligament.
Because he jumped straight into the big leagues a few weeks after being drafted, Crochet is already only two years away from free agency. Two years of being a frontline starter is very valuable, and the White Sox will get a haul for him, but this is not a pitcher who just completed his first year as a starter and is four or five years away from free agency.
The Tommy John surgery and his time as a reliever will keep Crochet's salary down. He made only $800,000 in 2024, his first year as an arbitration-eligible player, and MLB Trade Rumors' model forecasts a $2.9 million salary in 2025. That is a steal. Even a generous raise means a $10 million or so salary in 2026. Crochet is one of the game's biggest bargains.
That low salary means every team can afford Crochet. Not every team can afford Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes. They can afford Crochet, though. Not only can every team afford him, but every team will have plenty of payroll flexibility left over to add around him. It might be tough to fill out a roster around Soto or Burnes! Not with Crochet. He's a bargain.
The total package equals one of the most desirable trade chips in recent memory. A dominant pitcher with an expanding arsenal and the aptitude to make adjustments, and two dirt cheap years of control. Crochet does have an injury risk, but a) what pitcher doesn't these days?, and b) that's something you can live with given everything else he brings to the table.