Twins-Tigers odds, picks, predictions for April 11 from proven model

The AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers visit the Minnesota Twins on Friday to open a weekend series at 8:10 p.m. as part of Friday's Apple TV+ doubleheader. Reese Olson (1-1, 5.06 ERA) gets the ball for the Tigers, while David Festa will make his first MLB start of the year for the Twins. 

Detroit, fresh off a surprise playoff berth in 2024, leads the Central at 7-5. The Tiger offense has surged to have the second-best wRC+ in baseball, led by a long-awaited breakout from former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson. The Detroit pitching staff has also performed reasonably well, posting the 10th-best ERA in the sport. 

Minnesota, meanwhile is struggling at 4-9. The Twins are hitting just .199 as a team. Standout third baseman Royce Lewis is once again hurt, and star shortstop Carlos Correa has badly struggled. Outfielder Matt Wallner has been a bright spot, but the Twins need to hit better.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Olson's strikeouts prop for today's outing is set at 5.5, with the Under favored at -138. Festa is also set at 5.5, and his Under is also favored at -148.

A pair of slugging outfielders are the favorites to go yard for each team -- Byron Buxton for the Twins and Kerry Carpenter for the Tigers, with both +480 to homer. 

The Twins are -115 favorites (bet $115 to win $100) on the money line, according to SportsLine consensus, while the Tigers are -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs. The total for this contest is currently set at 7.5 runs. 

Let's check out the SportsLine model's projections for Tigers-Twins.

DETROIT TIGERS at MINNESOTA TWINS | 4/11 | 8:10 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Twins -115
Boston wins in 55% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Twins -1.5 (-200)
Boston covers in 71% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 runs
The Over hits in 58% of simulations

Projected score: Twins 4.3, Tigers 4.2