The Cubs beat the Dodgers on Wednesday night in Game 4 of the NLCS to stay alive. The odds are still seriously against the Cubs toppling the mighty Dodgers and they have to play it one game at a time. I know, I know, that damn old cliche. It's true, though.
When it comes to Game 5, the Cubs face an even bigger uphill battle than a run-of-the-mill team down three games to one in a best-of-seven series, though. That's because their closer isn't available and the entire bullpen has been so unreliable.
[Just in case it comes up, we aren't going over the Dodgers pitching plan because they have Clayton Kershaw pitching and a rested group of Brandon Morrow, Tony Watson and Kenley Jansen behind him -- in addition to having a 3-1 lead in the series]
In order to nail down Game 4 and live to play another day, the Cubs used All-Star closer Wade Davis for two innings and he threw 48 pitches. There's no chance he can go again in Game 5. Cubs manager Joe Maddon confirmed as much after Game 4.
"It's not going to be him," Maddon said of Davis as closer for Game 5. "So this is where the guys got to pretty much do their jobs. Wade did the job tonight, so tomorrow we'll be able to parcel it out a little more cleanly."
So the Cubs head to Game 5 without the best pitcher in a bullpen that so far this postseason has a 6.16 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 26 walks in 30 2/3 innings. Yikes.
How can they possibly win this one while facing off against Kershaw? Let's look at the pitching road map.
SP: Jose Quintana
The lefty looked great through four scoreless innings in Game 1 before the Dodgers started to get to him in the fifth inning. He ended up going five, allowing two earned runs on two hits and two walks. Quintana struck out four.
The line doesn't look like it was Quintana at his best and, well, he wasn't. He worked in relief in Game 5 of the NLDS and was going on just one day of rest since then. Further, his wife had a health issue that cause the Cubs to stop over in Albuquerque for hours on their way to L.A. from D.C.
Now with a full four days of rest, Quintana has a shot to work deeper here and the Cubs could sure use it. The ideal realistic scenario is Quintana works seven innings.
Even if he works six and the Cubs have a lead, they have a reasonable path to victory.
Setup righty: Carl Edwards Jr.
Thanks to allowing a game-tying homer to Bryce Harper, walking in a run with Yu Darvish at the plate and some other struggles this postseason, Edwards has been the subject of ridicule in some Internet circles. It's mostly undeserved. He's had control issues at times through the season and the Harper pitch was a hanger, but he's also been overused this postseason.
As for Game 5, he shouldn't be drained. He threw just two pitches last Thursday in Game 5 of the NLDS, then there was a day off. He didn't pitch in Game 1 of the NLCS. He was the dominant version of himself in Game 2 (1 1/3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), then had a day off before Game 3 (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K). He didn't pitch in Game 4.
Overall, Edwards was excellent this whole season. He's got the stuff, too.
Give him the ball to start an inning and I'd bet heavily on a clean one from Edwards.
Setup lefty: Brian Duensing
An under-the-radar offseason pickup, Duensing was very good for the Cubs for much of the season. So far this postseason, he's held opposing hitters to a .111/.333/.111 line, so his only issue has been walks (which makes him blend in with this group). He did appear in Game 4, but it was just two pitches. He had thrown 21 pitches in Game 2, but that was three days ago. He'll be fine for an inning if need be.
Closer: Pedro Strop
There's a stigma Strop can't seem to escape due to a few high-profile blown games, but in 4 1/2 yeas with the Cubs, he has a 2.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. In the postseason, he has a 2.25 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with the Cubs in 19 appearances. So far this postseason, Strop has allowed one run on one hit in 5 1/3 innings (1.69 ERA). He has walked three, but the entire Cubs bullpen has embarrassed itself when it's come to walks, as noted above.
Opposing hitters against Strop this posteason? .059 average with a .356 OPS. He also closed the regular season with 13 straight outings without an earned run allowed, holding opposing hitters to a .216/.310/.243 line.
I know a large segment of the Cubs fan base will never trust him, but Strop should be The Man in the late innings for the Cubs in Game 5. He can handle it.
Note that if Quintana is able to finish seven innings, Maddon can mix and match with Edwards, Duensing and Strop to finish the final two innings however he wants without having named roles to fill.
Maddon also specifically mentioned Mike Montgomery, John Lackey and Hector Rondon by name after Game 4 as Game 5 options. None have proven reliable this postseason, but they should be slotted Rondon, Montgomery, Lackey in late innings. Montgomery's main job is the middle innings if Quintana falters, though.
Short-form Game 5 pitching plan:
SP: Quintana
Long: Montgomery
Setup: Duensing (L), Edwards (R)
Closer: Strop
First extra: Rondon
Second extra, including long relief in extras: Lackey
