The New York Yankees and free-agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have agreed to terms on a one-year pact worth $12.5 million. Goldschmidt, the 2022 National League's Most Valuable Player Award recipient, will slot in at the cold corner for a Yankees squad seeking more production from the position than they received last year, when they relied on a group led by Anthony Rizzo and Ben Rice, among others.
Goldschmidt, 37, is coming off a career-worst showing of his own. He batted just .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs. His 98 OPS+ represented the first time in 14 big-league seasons that he finished a campaign below the league-average mark, and both his strikeout and walk rates veered to single-season personal worsts.
Just why are the Yankees willing to bet on Goldschmidt representing an improvement for them in 2025? Let's break it down over the course of three subheadings.
1. Power remains
If there was a clear positive aspect to Goldschmidt's 2024 season, it was that he demonstrated he's still capable of putting a charge into the ball.
Goldschmidt's 22 home runs were the fewest he's launched in a full season since 2014, but his underlying strength indicators were all positive. His 91.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 82nd percentile; his 49.6% hard-hit percentage ranked in the 92nd percentile; and so on.
Yankee Stadium is often thought of as a friendly destination for left-handed batters. Don't sleep on how kind it can be to right-handed power, either. According to Statcast, Yankee Stadium has the third-highest home-run factor for righty batters over the last three seasons; for reference, St. Louis' Busch Stadium ranks 22nd.
Yankee Stadium is less beneficial to right-handed batters with respect to other offensive events. As such, Goldschmidt might become even more reliant upon slugging his way to respectable marks.
2. Stronger finish
Legendary scribe Bill James once wrote that it's better for a player's perception to begin strong than finish strong -- that way, their statistics appear good for longer. We might argue that the opposite is true for older players, as it provides teams with hope that they still have something left in the tank despite some early struggles.
That seems to be the case here, anyway. Goldschmidt hit just .230/.291/.373 with a 28.2% strikeout rate before the All-Star Game; after the midsummer break, he hit .271/.319/.480 with a reduced 23.6% strikeout rate. Though those marks were still short of his typical heights, they did represent a step back in the right direction.
We will note that Goldschmidt's underlying measures did not support his gains. His exit velocity worsened compared to his first half. Ditto for his chase and whiff rates. Clearly, the Yankees are hoping the topline results win out.
3. The alternatives
The Yankees' willingness to bet on Goldschmidt speaks to more than how they feel about his chances of rebounding: it also speaks to how they feel about the other first-base options.
Christian Walker signed a three-year pact worth $60 million with the Houston Astros on Friday. Given that Pete Alonso is younger than Walker, it stands to reason that he'll be looking for a longer and likely richer pact of his own. You don't have to take our word for it that modern front offices are reluctant to commit big resources to non-elite right-handed first baseman -- just consider that the last free-agent righty first baseman to sign a deal lasting at least four seasons was Byung-Ho Park in 2015.
Beyond Alonso, the best first-base options were Goldschmidt and journeyman Carlos Santana. Of the downmarket pair, Santana feels "safer," albeit without an obvious middle-of-the-lineup upside. Indeed, Santana has posted an OPS+ between 100 and 110 in each of the last three seasons, even as he nears his 39th birthday. For reference, Goldschmidt has a 131 OPS+ over the last three campaigns, including 2024.
Add all the above together, and you can understand why -- despite a career-worst showing and some legitimate red flags -- Goldschmidt didn't lack suitors.
